The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

Summary of The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

by The Ringer

2h 0m•August 30, 2026
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Overview of The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House run through every AFC team’s win total and futures market, leaning heavily on quarterback health, coaching continuity, schedule difficulty, and regression from last year’s luck. The episode’s strongest convictions were on Houston and Denver overs, a clear under on Cleveland, and major skepticism about teams like the Dolphins, Colts, Chiefs, and Bengals. They also spent a lot of time debating whether the AFC is in a transition phase between the old guard (Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Burrow) and the next wave of quarterbacks and coaches.

Key Themes Across the AFC

Quarterback health is the whole board

A lot of the discussion centered on whether teams can survive if their QB is:

  • aging or slowing down
  • coming off injury
  • behind a bad offensive line
  • carrying too much of the offense

Coaching changes matter, but not equally

They were more bullish on teams with:

  • proven head coaches
  • continuity on both sides of the ball
  • a clear schematic identity

Regression is everywhere

Several teams were flagged as likely to fall back after:

  • unusually high turnover margins
  • lots of one-score wins
  • unsustainable red-zone efficiency

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

  • The group was split, but the general vibe was slight under / around 10–11 wins.
  • Main concerns:
    • a brutal schedule
    • possible regression in close games
    • dependence on Josh Allen to keep bailing out a roster with some holes
  • Main pro:
    • Allen is still an elite engine, and the Bills are extremely hard to count out

New England Patriots

  • They leaned over, with optimism about:
    • Drake Maye in year two
    • improved offensive talent
    • better continuity around the coaching staff
  • Bill and House both saw them as a team that could quietly win 10–11 games if the offense clicks early.

New York Jets

  • Lean over, but not with much confidence.
  • Reasons:
    • improved offensive line
    • better run-game potential
    • a schedule that could allow them to hang around
  • Big warning:
    • the quarterback situation and overall organizational instability still make this a shaky bet

Miami Dolphins

  • Strong under.
  • They mocked the cap situation and the roster erosion:
    • too much money tied up in players no longer providing value
    • a weak receiver room
    • major secondary problems
    • a brutal slate of opposing quarterbacks
  • The room seemed to think Miami could end up in the 3–4 win range.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

  • One of the strongest overs on the board.
  • Why they liked them:
    • Lamar Jackson is still the centerpiece
    • Derrick Henry adds another layer
    • easy early schedule
    • belief that the defensive/coaching change could be a real upgrade
  • This was treated as close to a lock over.

Cincinnati Bengals

  • The most debated team in the division.
  • Bill leaned under because:
    • Joe Burrow’s injury risk
    • the offensive line still feels shaky
    • there’s no room for error if any of the stars miss time
  • House argued for the over because of:
    • a much easier schedule
    • late-season defensive improvement
    • the idea that continuity can finally pay off
  • Overall, though, the room sounded more skeptical than bullish.

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Slight over, with the usual Tomlin logic.
  • The case:
    • Pittsburgh always finds a way to stay competitive
    • defense and special teams are solid
    • Aaron Rodgers could be good enough to get them to 9–10 wins
  • The concern:
    • age and offensive limitations
    • Rodgers not looking like a true difference-maker anymore

Cleveland Browns

  • Clear under and one of the stronger opinions of the episode.
  • Reasons:
    • the Deshaun Watson saga has wrecked the franchise
    • the QB room is ugly
    • the defense likely won’t be as dominant without the same level of pass-rush protection
  • They did note:
    • young talent is accumulating
    • the schedule is softer than it looks
  • Still, the under was the strong play.

AFC South

Houston Texans

  • One of the clearest overs and one of Bill’s locks.
  • Why:
    • elite defense
    • strong coaching
    • enough offensive talent to survive even if the QB play isn’t perfect
    • manageable schedule
  • They liked Houston as a team with real AFC title upside, not just a win-total play.

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • The most conflicted team in the division.
  • Bill talked himself into an over at points, but the concern was obvious:
    • regression from last year’s turnover luck
    • a shaky draft
    • roster imbalance
    • a less trustworthy run game
  • The consensus feel was more skeptical than the line suggests.

Indianapolis Colts

  • Strong under, close to a lock.
  • The whole argument hinged on:
    • Daniel Jones not being fully healthy
    • a bad QB room overall
    • too much uncertainty to trust the offense
  • They also flagged concerns with the defense and regression from last year’s turnover advantage.

Tennessee Titans

  • Lean under.
  • The optimistic case was basically “new coach, new QB, maybe some defensive improvement.”
  • But the mood was that:
    • rookie-QB volatility is real
    • the offense is too fragile
    • the team likely needs time before it can matter

AFC West

Denver Broncos

  • One of the strongest overs and one of Bill’s locks.
  • Reasons:
    • Bo Nix year two
    • a strong defense
    • good coaching
    • enough roster structure to survive bad weeks
  • The hosts liked them as a real threat to win the division.

Los Angeles Chargers

  • Lean over.
  • They liked:
    • the Harbaugh effect
    • improved team structure
    • enough defensive and coaching quality to hit 10+ wins
  • Biggest concern:
    • offensive line fragility
    • a brutal early schedule
    • Herbert taking too many hits over a long season

Kansas City Chiefs

  • The most polarizing AFC West team.
  • House was more firmly under, arguing:
    • the roster is thinner
    • the defense may not be able to mask everything
    • the offense no longer looks as reliable
  • Bill was more reluctant to fade Mahomes and Reid, pointing out:
    • it’s still Mahomes
    • the NFL tends to make life easier for them
  • But the overall tone was that this could be a transition year rather than another dominant Chiefs season.

Las Vegas Raiders

  • Lean under.
  • Even with some offseason upgrades, the group didn’t trust:
    • the overall roster construction
    • the receiver room
    • the long-term direction of the franchise
  • There was mild optimism that they could be competitive, but not enough for an over bet.

Final Betting Takeaways

Best AFC overs

  • Texans over 9.5
  • Broncos over 9.5
  • Strong support also for Chargers over 9.5
  • Mild support for Patriots over and Ravens over

Best AFC unders

  • Browns under 5.5
  • Dolphins under 7.5
  • Colts under 8.5
  • Strong skepticism on the Bengals, Chiefs, and Titans

Locks mentioned

  • Bill’s AFC locks: Texans over, Broncos over
  • Sal’s most confident AFC leans: Jets over, Chargers over

If you want, I can also turn this into a team-by-team table with projected win totals and recommended bets.