NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The West | with Zach Lowe and Joe House

Summary of NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The West | with Zach Lowe and Joe House

by The Ringer

2h 19m•October 13, 2026
Listen to Episode

Overview of NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The West

Bill Simmons, Zach Lowe, and Joe House kicked off their annual NBA over/under preview with the Western Conference, blending betting picks with broader league themes: the new anti-tanking rules, the West’s depth, and how several star players could reshape their legacies this season. The discussion was less about safe regular-season projections and more about which teams can survive a much tougher path to wins in a league that feels deeper, healthier, and more competitive than usual.

Major League-Wide Themes

  • New tanking rules change everything

    • The trio kept circling back to the idea that the new lottery format should reduce blatant losing.
    • The new incentive structure makes finishing in the 4-10 range more attractive than bottoming out in the worst three.

  • The West is still stacked, but wins will be harder to find

    • Several good teams may end up in the high-30s or low-40s simply because the conference is crowded.
    • The panel repeatedly noted that the old “easy wins” environment is disappearing.

  • Star legacy questions were everywhere

    • Kevin Durant in Houston as a possible career coda.
    • Nikola Jokic and whether Denver can still mount another title run.
    • Luka finally taking over the Lakers’ future.
    • Zion as the league’s most unstable long-term question mark.
    • Steph Curry and the sense that Golden State’s dynasty chapter may be effectively closed.

  • The “4-10 team” idea became a running concept

    • Teams with little playoff upside may still compete hard because being the fourth-worst team can be preferable to being bottom-three bad.

Southwest Division

San Antonio Spurs — Over 60.5

  • Consensus: Over
  • The panel loved the Spurs’ momentum after their Finals run.
  • Key points:
    • Victor Wembanyama has already become a true star and a central figure in the league.
    • The young core got valuable playoff seasoning.
    • The team’s experience should help in the regular season and beyond.
  • Zach and House both felt last year’s postseason experience was more helpful than harmful.

Houston Rockets — Over 48.5

  • Consensus: Over, and a strong one
  • House called it a lock, and both Zach and Bill were firmly over.
  • Reasons:
    • Durant gives them a legitimate offensive superstar.
    • Healthier guard play and better structure should help.
    • The defense/rebounding profile looks strong.
    • They have more flexibility and upside than last season.

Dallas Mavericks — 33.5

  • Consensus: Split
  • Bill and House leaned over; Zach leaned under.
  • Big question:
    • How much can a young star carry this group right away?
    • Can Kyrie stay healthy enough to stabilize the offense?
  • The over case centered on top-end talent; the under case centered on depth, health, and uncertainty.

Memphis Grizzlies — Over 30.5

  • Consensus: Over
  • The panel liked Memphis’ toughness, depth, and home-court edge.
  • They expect a team that plays hard, is annoying to face, and can rack up some home wins.
  • Even with offensive questions, the energy and identity were enough for all three to lean over.

New Orleans Pelicans — Under 28.5

  • Consensus: Under
  • This was a unanimous under.
  • Main concerns:
    • Zion’s durability and long-term uncertainty.
    • Too many players feel like trade-machine pieces.
    • The roster has talent, but not much stability.
  • The group viewed New Orleans as a team that could drift into trouble without trying to tank.

Northwest Division

Oklahoma City Thunder — Over 61.5

  • Consensus: Over, unanimous
  • Bill and House both treated this as a lock.
  • Why they’re so bullish:
    • The Thunder remain one of the league’s two most talented teams.
    • They’re deep enough to absorb role-player losses.
    • A healthier Jalen Williams changes the ceiling significantly.
  • The only real concern was whether a 60-win-plus team can still exist in this new environment.

Minnesota Timberwolves — Over 46.5

  • Consensus: Split
  • Zach and Bill went over; House went under.
  • Over case:
    • Anthony Edwards is too good to ignore.
    • Jaden McDaniels may be ready to level up.
    • The offense could be more dynamic this year.
  • Under case:
    • Fit and durability concerns.
    • House was skeptical about some of the roster construction and whether the team improved enough.

Denver Nuggets — Over 48.5

  • Consensus: Slight over
  • Zach and House went over; Bill went under.
  • Reasons for optimism:
    • Jokic is still Jokic.
    • A healthy Jokic usually means a very high floor.
    • They can still win a lot of games if the core stays intact.
  • Reasons for concern:
    • Depth worries.
    • Health concerns with key rotation pieces.
    • Bill was especially uneasy about the back end of the roster.

Portland Trail Blazers — Under 41.5

  • Consensus: Under, unanimous
  • The panel found the roster weird, crowded, and confusing.
  • Concerns:
    • Too many ball-handlers / too many overlapping pieces.
    • Fit issues in the backcourt.
    • The team feels more chaotic than coherent.
  • House especially called it a “too weird” roster.

Utah Jazz — 37.5

  • Consensus: Slight over
  • Zach and House went over; Bill went under.
  • Over case:
    • Will Hardy’s coaching.
    • Better offensive creativity.
    • Enough shot-making talent to make them frisky.
  • Under case:
    • Rebounding and defense are real concerns.
    • Bill was skeptical the roster is stable enough to clear the number comfortably.

Pacific Division

Los Angeles Lakers — Over 45.5

  • Consensus: Over, unanimous
  • Bill locked it.
  • The trio agreed the Lakers should win enough games because of Luka’s impact and offensive control.
  • Even with defensive issues, they expect a high-40s finish.

Golden State Warriors — Under 36.5

  • Consensus: Under, unanimous
  • Bill locked this too.
  • Main reasons:
    • Curry’s age and mileage.
    • Thin depth.
    • No reliable fallback plan before Jimmy Butler returns.
    • The front office’s past mistakes have caught up to them.
  • The group also noted that Golden State may be better off in the lottery sweet spot than chasing a mediocre play-in outcome.

Phoenix Suns — Under 38.5

  • Consensus: Slight under
  • House went over, while Zach and Bill leaned under.
  • The Suns were described as:
    • Competitive
    • Hard-working
    • But roughly average overall
  • House liked their fight and coaching; the others saw a middling team with little margin for error.

Los Angeles Clippers — Under 27.5

  • Consensus: Under, unanimous
  • House locked the under.
  • The panel thought this could be a truly ugly season:
    • Age and injuries are already piling up.
    • The team lacks a real incentive structure since it doesn’t control its pick.
    • Ty Lue is respected, but the roster is too compromised.
  • The Clippers were one of the clearest unders of the day.

Sacramento Kings — Over 20.5

  • Consensus: Slight over
  • Bill and Zach went over; House went under.
  • Over case:
    • Too many real NBA players to sink that low.
    • The new lottery incentives should keep them competitive.
  • Under case:
    • House remained skeptical about the ceiling and the organization’s ability to stay out of its own way.

Notable “Locks” and Strongest Confidence Picks

  • Spurs over
  • Rockets over
  • Thunder over
  • Lakers over
  • Warriors under
  • Clippers under

Biggest Disagreements

  • Timberwolves
  • Nuggets
  • Suns
  • Jazz
  • Kings
  • Mavericks

Bottom Line

The West preview landed on a clear idea: good teams should be very good, but wins will be harder to pile up because the conference is deep and tanking incentives are changing. The panel was especially bullish on the Thunder, Rockets, Spurs, and Lakers, while seeing the Warriors, Clippers, Pelicans, and Blazers as clear under bets. Part 2 is set up to cover the Eastern Conference.