Hello Cleveland, Week 4 NFL Picks, NBA Award Leans, Raiders Realities, and Boston Despair With Joe House, Tom Pelissero, and Bill’s dad

Summary of Hello Cleveland, Week 4 NFL Picks, NBA Award Leans, Raiders Realities, and Boston Despair With Joe House, Tom Pelissero, and Bill’s dad

by The Ringer

2h 29m•October 2, 2026
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Overview of Hello Cleveland, Week 4 NFL Picks, NBA Award Leans, Raiders Realities, and Boston Despair With Joe House, Tom Pelissero, and Bill’s Dad

Bill Simmons opens with a broad sports-night recap, then spends most of the episode on three big lanes: NFL Week 4 betting and team outlooks, the Fever-Aces WNBA elimination game, and a long Red Sox postmortem with his dad after Boston was knocked out by the Yankees. The episode also includes a lively NFL insider segment with Tom Pelissero and a quick look at NBA futures and award markets.

Browns-Steelers and the Early NFL Storylines

Browns look better than expected

  • Cleveland’s Thursday night win over Pittsburgh pushed the Browns to 3-1 and made them look like a real playoff contender.
  • The big theme was Deshaun Watson’s resurgence:
    • He’s looked much more confident the last couple of games.
    • Bill and House credited Todd Monken for unlocking the offense and putting Watson in better spots.
    • They were struck by how often Watson looked like his old Houston self, improvising and playing instinctively.
  • Cleveland’s roster construction also got praise:
    • Two strong drafts in a row, especially the young receivers.
    • A rebuilt offensive line that fits the run-heavy scheme.
    • Quinshon Judkins and other skill players giving the offense more life.

Pittsburgh is still solid, but not dominant

  • Aaron Rodgers played another competent game for the Steelers.
  • The defense created turnovers and kept Pittsburgh alive.
  • House’s read: the Steelers look like an 8-9 / 9-8 type team with a defense that can keep them relevant.

WNBA: Aces beat Fever, and Caitlin Clark is still searching

  • The Fever-Aces game was framed as an enormous WNBA moment, with a huge audience and lots of pressure.
  • The Aces made the key plays late:
    • A’ja Wilson dominated and looked like the best player in the league.
    • Chelsea Gray hit big shots.
    • Las Vegas won by doing championship things in clutch moments.
  • The Fever had chances, but:
    • Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell shot poorly from three.
    • Clark had turnovers and never really controlled the game.
  • Bill’s takeaway:
    • Clark is incredibly fun to watch, but the “she hasn’t won anything yet” narrative is real.
    • The league keeps stumbling into off-court controversy just when it has a great on-court moment.

Ringer 107: Week 4 NFL Picks

Bill’s picks

  • Texans -3 vs. Cowboys
  • Rams -3 vs. Eagles
  • Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Packers
  • Tease: Seahawks -1 and Bills -1

House’s picks

  • Rams -3 vs. Eagles
  • Bengals -2.5 vs. Jaguars
  • Chiefs -4.5 vs. Raiders
  • Tease: Seahawks -1 and Washington +9.5 vs. Colts

Main betting logic

  • Texans: Nico Collins’ return matters, and Houston badly needs a win after an 0-3 start.
  • Rams: House and Bill both faded the Eagles, arguing Philly’s defense isn’t elite and the team just doesn’t look right.
  • Bucs: Bill keeps riding Tampa because he thinks the market is overreacting to Baker Mayfield being hurt and the Packers are a mess.
  • Seahawks / Bills teaser: both are seen as strong bounce-back spots.
  • Chiefs: House likes Kansas City to “serve up some settled-down juice” to the Raiders.
  • Washington in London: House broke his own teasing rules a bit, but liked the Commanders getting more than a touchdown against the Colts.

Tom Pelissero’s NFL Six-Pack

Joey Porter trade fallout

  • The Cowboys’ trade for Joey Porter was a major topic.
  • Tom explained:
    • Dallas had spent heavily on defense after the Micah Parsons trade.
    • Pittsburgh and Porter’s camp had been in hold-in/holdout mode.
    • The Steelers eventually decided they couldn’t keep planning around him.
  • The move gives Dallas a much-needed corner, but it also shows how aggressively they’ve remade that defense through trades.

J.J. McCarthy to the Giants

  • Tom liked the fit for both sides:
    • The Giants get a fresh start and a quarterback who can at least fit their run/play-action identity.
    • The Vikings get off some guaranteed money and recoup a fifth-round pick.
  • He framed the deal as sensible roster management, not a blockbuster.

Jaden Daniels watch

  • Tom said Washington’s QB situation is trending better than expected:
    • Daniels is already practicing and could return soon.
    • Even if he misses this week, the team seems encouraged by his recovery.
  • Washington’s young coaching staff got a lot of credit for getting the offense functional with a backup quarterback.

Packers are in trouble

  • The Packers’ offensive line, especially the guard play, is a major problem.
  • Tom said Green Bay has already had to bring in veteran help.
  • He still thinks they can stabilize once Micah Parsons returns and if the offensive line gets healthier, but right now the offense looks shaky and thin at receiver.

The Jets’ future is suddenly interesting

  • With multiple future first-round picks, the Jets are sitting on major draft capital.
  • Tom thinks they’ll remain competitive, but they still don’t know how to close games.
  • The long-term upside is obvious if they use the picks wisely at quarterback and elsewhere.

Drake May and the Patriots

  • This was the biggest “what’s wrong?” quarterback conversation of the segment.
  • Tom’s view:
    • It’s not mainly the shoulder.
    • It’s more about confidence, panic, and bad decision-making under pressure.
    • The offense looks disjointed and the young QB is pressing too much.
  • The bigger concern is that New England may be entering a stretch where the season can slip if they can’t calm him down.

Raiders: quietly real

  • Tom thinks the Raiders are more serious than people realize:
    • They’ve built a stable, normal organization around Pete Carroll and Clint Kubiak.
    • Max Crosby still changes games.
    • Brock Bowers is one of the most dangerous young weapons in football.
  • The Chiefs game in Vegas is a huge test and may tell everyone whether this is a legitimate playoff-level team.

NBA Futures, Award Leans, and Betting Notes

Early thoughts on award markets

  • MVP: Wembanyama is the favorite, but Bill argued Luka might actually be the better bet.
  • Defensive Player of the Year: Wemby is a heavy favorite, and Bill joked that betting it is basically a bet on health.
  • Sixth Man: Payton Pritchard at 20-1 caught Bill’s eye.
  • Coach of the Year: Sean Sweeney in Orlando stood out to Bill as a live sleeper.

Team win totals and player props

  • Bill liked Memphis 29.5 wins as too low.
  • He also liked a long-shot bet on Luka Doncic to average 36+ points per game, especially if the Lakers struggle and he carries more usage.
  • Toronto was discussed as a possible over team, though Bill wasn’t fully sold yet.

Red Sox Postmortem With Bill’s Dad

The season was fun — until it wasn’t

  • They agreed the Red Sox season had real highs:
    • The 15-game win streak.
    • The 32-5 stretch that briefly made Fenway electric.
    • Unexpected contributions from role players and a rejuvenated clubhouse.
  • But the late-season version of the team was back to being frustratingly familiar.

What went wrong in the Yankees series

  • The biggest criticism was managerial panic:
    • Pulling starters too early.
    • Leaning on bullpen arms they didn’t trust.
    • Making moves that looked scared rather than aggressive.
  • Bill and his dad both felt the Yankees series was lost in the dugout as much as on the field.

Injury chaos and roster flaws

  • They ran through a long list of injuries and half-finished seasons:
    • Raffaella never looked right after being stopped at third.
    • Connelly Early / Tanner Houck / Crochet usage was a constant issue.
    • Roman Anthony and other young players were uneven or hurt.
    • Triston Casas and others left major holes.
  • Trevor Story was singled out as a frustrating, streak-killing presence.

Bigger picture: Breslow and the future

  • Bill’s dad was especially uneasy about the Craig Breslow extension, calling it the scarier decision than the manager extension.
  • The final feeling:
    • The season was emotionally fun for a while.
    • But the Yankees loss, the injuries, and the front-office decisions left a bad taste.
    • The Red Sox are now stuck living with whether this leadership group is actually the right one.

Bottom Line

This episode mixed sharp NFL betting talk, some big-picture quarterback diagnosis, a WNBA championship-level showdown, and a very candid Red Sox therapy session. The recurring themes were:

  • trust the offenses that are actually coherent,
  • don’t overreact to one bad week unless the underlying issues are real,
  • and in Boston, a magical streak can’t erase deeper organizational doubts.