Overview of Guess the Lines Week 1, Plus Favorite NFL Futures With Cousin Sal
Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal kick off their 20th year of “Guess the Lines” with a Week 1 NFL preview, debating the opening spreads, identifying early-season betting angles, and then diving into a long futures draft of division winners, player props, award bets, and Super Bowl picks. The episode mixes gambling analysis with the usual Simmons-Sal banter, plus a few personal stories in “Parent Corner” at the end.
Week 1 “Guess the Lines” Highlights
Biggest game-by-game themes
- Week 1 underdogs remain a major focus, especially:
- Divisional home dogs
- Dogs of 7+ points
- They repeatedly note that Week 1 often produces a few surprising results that look ridiculous by midseason.
- They also emphasize how important it is to watch for overreaction narratives after the first slate of games.
Notable line guesses and reactions
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: Seattle favored by 3.5
- They discuss the uncertainty around Drake Maye and the Patriots’ revenge angle.
- Rams vs. 49ers in Australia: Rams favored by 3.5
- Big discussion about the Rams’ decision to fly in very late versus the 49ers arriving early.
- Both hosts think the Rams may be overconfident and that the travel strategy could matter.
- Bills vs. Texans: Bills favored by 1.5
- They see this as an early “overreaction” game where the winner will be treated like an AFC frontrunner.
- Ravens vs. Colts: Ravens favored by 3.5
- They highlight how the hook makes the Colts attractive as a home dog.
- Bengals vs. Buccaneers: Bengals favored by 3.5
- Sal is high on Tampa Bay as a live underdog and division contender.
- Lions vs. Saints: Lions favored by 6.5
- A classic teaser candidate.
- Bears vs. Panthers: Bears favored by 2.5
- They note the heat/weather angle for Carolina home games.
- Jaguars vs. Browns: Jaguars favored by 7.5
- Seen as a “stay careful” game with Deshaun Watson under scrutiny.
- Packers vs. Vikings: Vikings favored by 1.5
- One of the more surprising spreads to them.
- Eagles vs. Commanders: Eagles favored by 5.5
- They note this matchup has historically been a betting trap.
- Steelers vs. Falcons: Steelers favored by 3.5
- They’re skeptical of Atlanta’s QB situation.
- Titans vs. Jets: Titans favored by 2.5
- They joke about how many early-season Jets bets exist in the marketplace.
- Raiders vs. Dolphins: Raiders favored by 3.5
- Chargers vs. Cardinals: Chargers favored by 9.5
- Another teaser-friendly number.
- Cowboys vs. Giants (SNF): Cowboys favored by 2.5
- Simmons is confident Dallas will be strong this year.
- Chiefs vs. Broncos (MNF): Chiefs favored by 2.5
- They question why Kansas City is this short in Week 1.
Bets/angles they liked most from the board
- Texans teaser value if the number stays around +1.5
- Lions teaser
- Bears/Panthers as a possible weather-driven game to monitor
- Pats, Colts, Falcons, Cardinals, Saints, Dolphins discussed often as early-season team narratives to follow
Futures Draft: Best Bets and Big Opinions
Sal’s first-round-style picks
- Jets to finish 3rd in the AFC East (+100)
- Sal thinks the Jets are actually trying to win, while Miami may collapse.
- Falcons and Dolphins to finish 4th in their divisions (+343 parlay)
- He thinks both teams are fragile and likely to disappoint.
Simmons’ biggest futures
- Houston and Seattle to make the playoffs (+112)
- One of his favorite combo bets.
- He sees both teams as strong, stable, and likely to win 10+ games.
- Tampa Bay to win the NFC South (+175)
- Simmons is very high on the Buccaneers and thinks the price is too good.
- Dak Prescott to win MVP (+1800)
- He likes the Cowboys’ setup and thinks Dak can benefit if Dallas wins 12–13 games.
- Bears over 9.5 wins (+120)
- He believes Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams will lead a real step forward.
- Pats to win the AFC East (+140)
- He argues Buffalo is being priced as if Josh Allen is automatic, while New England is undervalued.
- Rams under 13.5 wins + Seahawks/Patriots over 8.5 wins combined (+145)
- A way to bet against the Rams’ top-heavy roster.
Sal’s other strong plays
- Chargers to lose in the first round (+172)
- He’s shorting the Chargers’ playoff ceiling.
- AFC West/NFC West vs. AFC North/NFC South combo bets
- He likes the West divisions to outpace the South/North in total wins.
- Zach Taylor Coach of the Year (+2700)
- A swing-for-the-fences bet based on Cincinnati’s upside.
- Vance Joseph Assistant Coach of the Year (+1100)
- He’s betting on Denver’s defense being elite.
- Malik Willis 1000+ rushing yards (+850)
- A classic Sal-style long shot.
- Puka Nacua under 107.5 receptions
- He expects some regression and potential missed games.
- Brock Bowers 1000+ receiving yards (+135)
- He thinks Bowers is a strong rookie-volume play.
- Baker Mayfield 4000+ passing yards (+340)
- He believes Tampa’s offense and offensive line will support a big season.
- Trevor Lawrence 4000+ passing yards (+160)
- He expects passing volume and fewer drops to help.
- Caleb Williams 4000+ passing yards (+210)
- He thinks Chicago will throw more and Williams will take a step forward.
- Miles Garrett Defensive Player of the Year (+400)
- He likes the Browns’ pass-rush opportunities in likely comeback scripts.
- Jaden Daniels Comeback Player of the Year (+750)
- Justin Herbert MVP (+1100)
- He likes Herbert as a bounce-back candidate in a healthier environment.
- Jaguars, Seahawks, Texans, Patriots, etc. show up repeatedly as value targets in team totals and division futures.
Prop bets and player-specific angles
- Bijan Robinson most rushing yards (+750)
- David Montgomery 1000+ rushing yards / 8 TDs
- AJ Brown 10+ receiving TDs (+240)
- Puka Nacua under on receptions
- Parker Washington over 4.5 receiving TDs (-122)
- Christian Watson 10+ receiving TDs (+340)
- Caleb Downs Defensive Rookie of the Year (+700)
- Offensive Rookie of the Year on “Price” (+650)
Team-based exact finish and division bets
- Raiders 4th / Jets 3rd / Cardinals 4th (+229)
- Vikings 4th in the NFC North (+175)
- Houston to win the AFC South (+120)
- Washington and Atlanta both under 8.5 wins (+112)
- Colts under 6.5 wins (+210)
- Dolphins worst record (+220)
Super Bowl Picks
Simmons
- Seahawks over Texans (+5300-ish range)
- He sees Seattle as disrespected all offseason and believes Sam Darnold / Mike Macdonald can surprise people.
Sal
- Rams over Bills (+3050)
- He thinks the Rams’ top-end talent and early-season setup can carry them back to the Super Bowl.
Personal Stories and “Parent Corner”
The seagull incident
- Simmons tells a beach story where his son’s food got wiped out by 30 seagulls while he was recording him surfing.
- The birds allegedly stole everything: sandwiches, chips, watermelon, the whole spread.
Brad at the beach
- Brad shows up without a bathing suit, borrows one, then gets pummeled by waves until it starts sliding off.
- Simmons and his son eventually have to pull him out while a lifeguard watches nervously.
Bird poop good-luck story
- On a walk to his daughter Zoe’s soccer game, Simmons gets hit by a big green bird poop splat and treats it like good luck.
- Zoe scores in the game, reinforcing the superstition.
Fenway walk and “pulled groin” dispute
- Simmons recounts walking home from Fenway with his dad after a Mariners game, arguing over whether a 25-minute walk was too much for a 78-year-old with a pulled groin.
- His dad refuses to take a cab; Simmons gets blamed for underestimating the walk.
Key Takeaways
- Seattle, Houston, Tampa Bay, and Dallas are among the hosts’ favorite long-term football angles.
- They’re both very interested in week-one line value and particularly the psychology of early overreactions.
- The Rams’ Australia trip and the Bills/Texans showdown are two of the biggest narrative games of the opening weekend.
- The futures draft is heavily centered on division value, playoff appearance markets, and player yardage/award props.
- As always, the episode blends gambling analysis with jokes, family stories, and a lot of offseason football anticipation.