Overview of Week 14 Preview: The Athletic Football Show
This episode (hosted by Robert Mays with Derek Klasson and Dave Hellman) breaks down the must-watch storylines and stakes for Week 14 of the NFL season. The show centers on a revitalized Bears–Packers rivalry that actually matters again, plus deep dives and one-thing-to-watch takes on Colts–Jaguars, Texans–Chiefs, Bills–Bengals and more. It also includes a long “under the hood” segment on the Eagles’ suddenly struggling offense, injury/practice updates, playoff implications and a few “Sicko Street” games worth attention despite ugly narratives.
Key games & main takeaways
Bears vs. Packers — renewed rivalry, how each side can win
- Why it matters: For the first time in years this late-season Bears–Packers game has playoff/seeding relevance; Bears (9–3 at the time) have thrust themselves back into the conversation.
- Bears offense focus:
- The run game has been a major strength recently; question is whether it can grind down Green Bay’s stellar second/third level (linebackers/safeties).
- Packers excel defending runs from light boxes and against 12-personnel; five-man fronts give Bears trouble.
- Passing: Packers use lots of nickel cloud cover (cover-2/6) and the Bears struggle versus those looks—getting intermediate throws behind linebackers is key.
- Protection note: Bears have a rookie left tackle starting his third game; boots/rollouts are risky vs. Green Bay edge rushers (Micah Parsons was repeatedly referenced; note Parsons is on DAL — here hosts argue keeping Caleb Williams in the pocket is safer).
- Packers offense focus:
- Christian Watson’s return (plus Dontavian Wicks) restored vertical explosiveness; Jordan Love’s accuracy has improved dramatically.
- Packers are significantly better vs. man coverage; Love thrives on tight-window throws in man (high EPA per dropback vs. man).
- Injuries/practice: Devonte Wyatt out for Packers (ankle); availability of Bears linebackers and DBs (Noah Sewell, T.J. Edwards, Kyler Gordon, Jalen Johnson) changes game-planning.
- Tactical chess: Bears might prefer dime and aggressive, blitz-heavy looks to compensate for weak pass rush; Packers will try to control via coverages and vertical threats.
Colts at Jaguars — AFC South swing game
- Stakes: Division race—Colts/Jaguars split season series will heavily influence who wins AFC South.
- Jaguars offense revival:
- Jacoby Meyers (trade pickup) + Brenton Strange + returning Brian Thomas Jr. have boosted Trevor Lawrence’s comfort and passing success. Since Meyers arrived, passing success vs. zone skyrocketed (~0.25 EPA/dropback vs. zone).
- Offensive-line issues still create negative plays; Colts should look to bring pressure and exploit protection problems with “mugged up” looks.
- Colts defense & plan:
- Indy likely to mix man coverage and aggressive pressure to prevent chunk plays; loyalty to blitzing/pressuring (Lou Anarumo tendencies) fits this matchup.
- Colts offense:
- Jaguars are excellent in zone coverage, so running the ball and shortening down-and-distance is vital for the Colts.
- Misc: Jaguars lead the league in penalties and drops still a concern; turnover and penalties can swing the game.
Texans at Chiefs — Texans offense trending upward vs. elite KC pass rush
- Texans developments:
- CJ Stroud and the Texans offense are playing better; interior OL improvements (Tytus Howard slid inside, Ed Ingram playing better) have reduced disaster snaps.
- Receivers (Nico Collins, rookie Jayden Hibbs/Higgins referenced) have size + movement; long-range and crossers now available.
- Chiefs vulnerabilities:
- Chiefs OL injuries (Trey Smith, JuJu? — transcript notes two backup tackles and a backup guard were starting) mean they face one of the NFL’s nastiest pass rushes.
- Chris Jones remains the edge when Chiefs rush four.
- Why Texans can win: If Stroud protects the ball (Texans had few giveaways) and hits quick, accurate throws vs. Spagnuolo’s cover-2 tendencies (Stroud has excelled against cover-2), Texans have a path to victory.
- Upshot: This game could eliminate the Chiefs practically if Kansas City loses; big swing for both teams’ playoff chances.
Bills at Bengals — two good run games into two poor run defenses
- Core observation: Both teams have strong rushing attacks (Josh Allen/James Cook; Bengals’ run game improved), but both defenses rank among worst vs. the run—this could become a slugfest or a high-T.O.P. run-brawl.
- Bengals note: Their rushing unit (EPA/carry & success rate) improved dramatically over the season’s back half—key for Bengals if Joe Burrow returns healthy.
- Watch: whether lines of scrimmage and run defenses determine tempo and game length; could be short (time-elapsed) if the run games dominate.
Under the hood: The Eagles’ offense — why it’s struggling
- Big picture: The Eagles’ offense, previously explosive, has cratered. Over the last six weeks they're ~24th in offensive success rate and 23rd in EPA/play.
- Primary causes:
- Offensive line deterioration: injuries (Lane Johnson), Cam Jurgens and Landon Dickerson not at peak, and less push from interior/guards = fewer explosives and less favorable down-and-distance.
- Run game collapse: only six 20+ yard runs this year vs. 25 last season; poor “stuff” numbers (worse than teams like Browns/Raiders).
- Passing game regression: decreased movement and pre-snap motion (fewest plays with motion in NFL), AJ Brown being used more statically outside, and reduced access to between-the-numbers passing (lowest in NFL on passes between the numbers).
- Jalen Hurts’ play: with less protection and fewer explosive run plays, Hurts’ limitations become exposed—hosts argue he’s not a reliable problem-solver in the pocket and suggested that, right now, they’d rank him outside the top ~12–20 QBs.
- Possible solutions discussed:
- Structural/coaching: change/play-calling adjustments, inject more movement, and perhaps staff changes (the hosts discuss Petullo/Sirianni insularity).
- Personnel: upgrades to OL or blocking tight ends long-term.
- Immediate matchup note: Eagles facing a surging Chargers defense complicates short-term recovery.
Sicko Street & other notable games
- Ravens vs. Steelers (Sicko Street): Both 6–6; historically massive rivalry but both teams underwhelming. Hosts lament the decline and note huge swings in playoff chances.
- Titans at Browns: Watch Miles Garrett’s rush for the single-season sack record (hosts think Garrett will likely reach it soon; Titans OL and Cam Ward’s quick release are factors).
- Jets vs. Dolphins & Lions vs. Cowboys: Week had many teams with swinging playoff odds — hosts want to know who will be staring into the abyss after Week 14 (e.g., Lions’ playoff chances falling to ~13% with a loss).
- Bengals playoff possibilities: If Bengals win vs. Bills, their playoffs odds jump meaningfully (hosts entertain wild scenarios where they win out).
Important injuries / practice updates mentioned
- Packers: Devonte Wyatt out (ankle).
- Packers: Christian Watson and Dontavian Wicks returning to lineup (boost vertical threat).
- Bears: Kyler Gordon and Jalen Johnson had recently returned; Noah Sewell/T.J. Edwards potentially back.
- Jaguars: Brenton Strange back; Jacoby Meyers trade impact emphasized.
- Colts: Walker Little likely out (concussion).
- Bills/Bengals: Joe Burrow’s return raised game interest; Bengals QB availability noted.
- Ravens: Lamar Jackson not practicing at one point (health concerns).
- Chargers/Eagles: Justin Herbert’s status uncertain for upcoming matchup.
- Browns: Miles Garrett chasing sack record.
Actionable “what to watch” list (by game)
- Bears–Packers: Bears’ ability to sustain the run vs. Packers’ elite second-level tackling; Caleb Williams’ pocket decision-making (avoid boot-rollouts vs. pass rush); Packers’ use of verticals with Christian Watson.
- Colts–Jaguars: Will Indy play aggressive man/press and bring pressure? Can Jaguars avoid OL negative plays? Tight ends (Brenton Strange/Tyler) matchup vs. zone coverage tendencies.
- Texans–Chiefs: Texans’ interior protection holds up; how Chiefs cope with OL injuries vs. Will Anderson/Will the Texans exploit Spags’s cover-2 packages?
- Bills–Bengals: Who controls the trenches—the team that consistently runs better will likely win; watch explosive runs and time of possession.
- Eagles–Chargers: Will Eagles OL get healthier/execute more motion and intermediate throws? Will Jalen Hurts show creative pocket play or continue to struggle?
Notable quotes & tonal highlights
- “Bears–Packers finally means something” — hosts emphasize rivalry’s revived stakes.
- On Jordan Love: hosts credit a demonstrable jump in accuracy (bottom five in off-target rate improvement to high accuracy).
- On the Jaguars: Jacoby Meyers trade had a bigger-than-expected impact—Lawrence’s anticipatory passing and comfort vs. zone skyrocketed.
Bottom-line takeaways
- Week 14 is heavy on swing games with big playoff seeding implications; a handful of results could reshape many teams’ postseason math.
- The Bears–Packers matchup is a rare late-season rivalry game with real stakes and multiple strategic layers (run vs. second-level defenders; man vs. zone; QB safety vs. explosiveness).
- Several offenses that looked shaky earlier (Texans, Jaguars) are now threats; Eagles’ offense has declined rapidly and may need structural/coaching fixes.
- Watch OL play and pressure rates—many games will be decided by trenches, protection, explosive runs and QB decision-making under duress.
- Injuries and availability (especially on defensive fronts and OLs) remain decisive variables for Week 14 outcomes.
If you want a quick checklist before kickoff: track late injury/practice reports for Wyatt (GB), Garrett’s usage (CLE), Trevor/Jacoby Meyers availability (JAX), Christian Watson/Donavion Wicks (GB), and any QB practice participation (Herbert, Burrow, Lamar).