Overview of Week 11 Preview: Seahawks-Rams headlines a loaded slate
This Athletic Football Show episode (hosts Robert Mays, Derek Lassen, Dave Hellman) breaks down a massive Week 11 NFL slate. The focus is Seahawks at Rams (game of the year candidate), Chiefs at Broncos (AFC West ramifications), plus quick takes on Lions‑Eagles, Bears‑Vikings, Chargers‑Jaguars and several other games. The show also digs into the Bills’ drop‑back passing game and a Sicko‑Street feature on Panthers‑Falcons. Key tactical matchups, personnel notes and what to watch by the end of Week 11 are emphasized throughout.
Games of the week
Seahawks at Rams (7–2 vs 7–2)
Why this matters
- Both teams are elite on opposite sides of the ball and represent cutting‑edge schematic approaches. Dave calls it possibly the “game of the year.”
- Winner likely gets the inside track to the NFC’s top seed.
What to watch — Rams offense vs Seattle nickel
- Rams have dramatically increased 13‑personnel usage recently (~half of plays in the recent month). That brings bigger personnel and different run/pass balance.
- Terrence Ferguson’s vertical juice (played out of 13) creates matchup space for Devontáe Adams and tight‑end/slot concepts — Rams are very effective throwing from 13 personnel (high EPA & yards/attempt on those snaps).
- Question: Will the Rams force 13 personnel and try to exploit Seahawks matching decisions, or spread the field to attack outside with Adams and Kupp?
What to watch — Seahawks defense & structure
- Seahawks play nickel nearly all the time; Nick Emenwaari is the structural key. The Seahawks are elite defending the run in nickel and top in EPA per rush when in nickel.
- Mike McDonald’s approach is to keep looks unified (don’t give away information). Their bluffing/pressure packages and ability to play different cover shells from similar alignments is central.
- Seahawks blitz rate is below average but their pressure rate when blitzing is top of the league.
Key matchup nuance
- Rams want to leverage heavy personnel to create mismatches; Seahawks aim to keep consistent nickel shells to avoid giving offense information.
- Matthew Stafford’s ability to throw in between the safeties and hit in‑breakers versus Seattle’s aggressive safeties and linebackers (like Ernest Jones) is a defining duel.
Players to watch
- Rams: Terrence Ferguson, Devontáe Adams, Matthew Stafford
- Seahawks: Nick Emenwaari, Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy, Jarran Reed
Chiefs at Broncos (Chiefs 5–4 vs Broncos 8–2)
Why this matters
- Chiefs have won AFC West every year since 2017; a loss to Denver puts Kansas City in real danger of losing the division and slipping toward a wild‑card hunt.
- Strange season for KC: talent/quality still high, but results and luck have been wobbly.
What to watch — Chiefs offense vs Broncos coverage/fronts
- Broncos under Vance Joseph play a lot of man and get after the QB (they blitzed Mahomes a ton last season). Chiefs should look to use RBs and TEs in man to create mismatches (wheel routes, flats).
- With Patrick Chetain out, slot/coverage matchups and pressuring tendencies matter; getting Rasheed Rice/Rashad Bateman involved in seams and checkdowns could be key.
What to watch — Broncos offense / Bo Nix
- Most issues are tied to Bo Nix’s inconsistent pocket play: low success on clean, expected drop‑backs, underused scrambling/athleticism, downfield accuracy issues.
- Broncos run a conservative game with screens/quick completions to help Nix; but his low success on 75% drop‑back probability, unpressured plays (44.2% success, near bottom of the league) is alarming.
- If Nix doesn’t produce, the Broncos will depend on their defense to win ugly — which they can do.
Players to watch
- Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, Rasheed Rice (matching personnel/targets), Josh Simmons (if returns)
- Broncos: Bo Nix, John Franklin‑Myers, Zach Allen
Other notable games — one thing to watch
Lions vs Eagles
- One thing: Dan Campbell’s play‑calling change (took over play‑calls) meets a real, violent Eagles front (Jalen Phillips, Nolan Smith).
- Watch interior vs guard matchups (Jalen Carter vs Lions OL) and how Lions disguise pressure/man looks against the Eagles’ pass rush.
Bears vs Vikings
- This game is “radioactive”: Caleb Williams’ progression (Giants win vs Bengals, explosive plays) vs JJ McCarthy’s rookie volatility.
- One big storyline: how Caleb performs against a strong Vikings defense and how results shape the rookie‑QB narrative (and the media fallout).
Chargers vs Jaguars
- Jaguars’ passing offense has regressed: Trevor Lawrence’s passing success since week five is among the worst (with only Aaron Rodgers and Cam Ward lower among qualified passers).
- Offensive line pressure issues (very high pressure rate on four‑man rushes) and injuries (Travis Hunter IR, Brian Thomas Jr. banged up) are key. Jags are trending back toward former struggles — Chargers defense will exploit it.
Panthers vs Falcons (Sicko Street pick)
- Totally unpredictable — both teams have high variance and the matchup could go any direction. Tune in for pure chaos potential.
Under the hood: Bills drop‑back passing game
- Josh Allen is still good but has slipped into a middling zone since Week 6 (13th EPA/drop‑back, 12th success rate over a defined stretch).
- Problems identified:
- Lack of true vertical threats besides Keon Coleman; many targets are low‑explosive.
- Allen holds the ball more than earlier dominant versions of the offense and gets into frequent late‑play improvisation.
- Teams are now playing more zone vs Buffalo than earlier (owns a shifting coverage profile), so many of the man‑beater concepts they ran early are less effective now.
- Potential fix: lean back into pre‑snap motion and downfield openings that Allen can exploit, and pick spots to use his elite processing and play‑extending skills rather than living in high‑variance late‑plays.
What they want to know by the end of Week 11
Dave Hellman
- Can the Packers “take care of business” and avoid another bizarre upset (Giants matchup history vs Green Bay)?
- How does the Mike Kafka debut go in Chicago (is interim stay possible)?
Derek Lassen
- Can the Ravens rediscover a consistent run game vs Cleveland (Ricard/I‑form uses have helped)?
- Will the Bengals remain relevant long enough for Joe Burrow’s return to matter (Bengals’ upcoming schedule is brutal)?
Robert Mays (host highlights)
- Overall narratives to watch: Rams/Seahawks NFC pecking order, Chiefs division life support, Caleb Williams’ rise vs the Vikings’ defense, Jaguars offense regression, and Bills’ passing efficiency.
Key takeaways (quick)
- Seahawks‑Rams is a true chess match: Rams’ rising 13‑personnel usage vs Seattle’s nickel structure and premier run defense in nickel.
- Chiefs must win in Denver to keep AFC West hopes realistic; Broncos will lean on defense and hope Bo Nix stabilizes.
- Jaguars’ offense is regressing to pre‑Liam‑Coughlin worries — OL and injuries are a major handicap.
- Caleb Williams continues to excite — Week 11 is a meaningful test against a stout Vikings defense.
- Bills aren’t collapsing but need more vertical juice from their receivers and smarter use of Allen’s pre‑snap processing to regain peak form.
Actionable viewing/betting notes
- Watch personnel groupings: Rams in 13 personnel vs Seahawks in nickel — that matchup will decide a lot.
- Monitor health/activation: Ernest Jones (Seahawks matchup), Josh Simmons (Chiefs), and key Jaguars/Chargers injuries.
- For bettors: Chiefs favored in Denver (odd), but Broncos’ defense can force an ugly game. Seahawks‑Rams is a pick’em‑level, high‑variance showdown — game flow will hinge on which team forces the other into unfamiliar downs/personnel.
If you want a single-sentence lift: this week’s slate centers on schematic chess — Rams’ big‑personnel creativity vs Seattle’s nickel steadiness — while Kansas City’s season hangs on a road game in Denver and several rookies/young QBs face pivotal tests.