Overview of The Table: Cutting 10 Super Bowl contenders down to eight
This episode of The Athletic Football Show (hosts Robert Mays, Dave Hellman, Derek Klassen) performs their midseason “contenders table” cutdown — trimming a preseason list of 10 Super Bowl contenders to eight teams. The panel explains the rules, defends their picks, debates hard cases, and ultimately removes four teams from contention (they cannot be returned). Discussion mixes stats, instincts, and roster/injury context.
Methodology
- At the season start they named 10 teams as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Over the season they’ve swapped teams occasionally; today’s exercise is a forced cut from 10 → 8.
- Rule highlighted: once a team is cut off the table, it cannot be re-added for this exercise.
- Hosts relied on recent performance, roster construction (QB, offense/defense balance), injuries, schedule, and historical context about what types of teams win championships.
Final decision — the 8 teams that remain on the contenders table
- Philadelphia Eagles (locked in)
- Los Angeles Rams (locked in)
- Seattle Seahawks (locked in)
- Buffalo Bills (locked in)
- Green Bay Packers
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Baltimore Ravens
- Detroit Lions
(Hosts agreed the Eagles, Rams, Seahawks, and Bills were indisputable inclusions.)
Teams removed (cut from 10 → 8) and why
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Offense has not matched last year’s level (injuries, pass game struggles); linebacking group lacks an elite playmaker to swing big moments. Could still win a playoff game but not judged a Super Bowl caliber team this year.
- New England Patriots
- Drake Maye’s MVP-level surge is real, but the roster’s defensive and OL shortcomings make a multi-week playoff run unlikely. The panel felt Maye’s play doesn’t convert New England into a proven championship-level team yet.
- Indianapolis Colts
- Daniel Jones’ recent performance has regressed toward prior variability; defense not elite; extremely difficult remaining schedule makes a deep run unlikely.
- Denver Broncos
- Excellent defense, but offense/QB (Bo Nix) insufficiently proven. Hosts cited historical evidence: since 2014, very few teams with top-10 offenses absent reached championship weekend — defense-first teams rarely win Super Bowls unless truly historic (2015 Broncos exception).
Short rationale for the eight kept teams
- Rams — Seen by the panel as possibly the best team in the NFL; top talent and balance.
- Seahawks — Top-5 offense and top-5 defense by many metrics; defense possibly the best in the league right now.
- Eagles — Defensive recovery and known playoff ceiling; have shown ability to flip a regular-season offense into a postseason engine.
- Bills — Josh Allen-led offense remains elite; defensive questions exist but still a clear contender.
- Packers — Confidence in Jordan Love (metrics have been strong) plus returning weapons; offensive ceiling makes them dangerous.
- Chiefs — Despite recent struggles and a low probability to make the playoffs if they lose upcoming games, panel gives Mahomes/Co. the benefit of the doubt based on historical fundamentals (they often prevail in close games).
- Ravens — Despite Lamar Jackson’s health questions, top defensive pieces and potential to be a top playoff team once healthy; playoff-simulator odds (noted) show strong chances to win division.
- Lions — Top-5 offense and improving defense; coaching/structure and big-play ceiling kept them on the table.
Notable stats & context mentioned
- Chiefs have historically won ~73% of one-score games in the Mahomes era but were 0–5 in one-score games at the time of the episode — hosts expected regression to the mean.
- Broncos point: since 2014, only one team (2015 Broncos) with an offense outside the top-10 in EPA/play both reached and won the Super Bowl — defense-alone paths are rare.
- The Athletic’s playoff simulator was cited: Ravens had an ~81% chance to win their division at the time; Chiefs’ playoff chances swing dramatically depending on an upcoming game (≈40% if they lose vs. ≈66% if they win).
Notable moments / dynamics
- The hosts acknowledged the emotional/hype side of fandom (fear of being roasted online for unpopular takes).
- Dave Hellman pushed back hard on letting teams with strong defenses but weak offenses (Broncos) stick, invoking historical precedent.
- Derek Klassen often argued more bluntly for cuts; Robert Mays played mediator and keeper of context.
- They humorously discussed high-stakes penalties for being wrong (e.g., shaving heads) if an eliminated team wins it all.
Bottom line / takeaways
- Nine weeks in (season roughly halfway), the panel preserved the league’s elite balance by locking in four “slam dunks” (Rams, Seahawks, Eagles, Bills) and kept four more (Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions) with reasons rooted in QB talent, defense, or offensive ceiling.
- Cut teams (Bucs, Patriots, Colts, Broncos) were removed primarily because of offensive shortcomings, quarterback/consistency questions, or historically unlikely paths (defense-first routes).
- This is a snapshot as of Week 11 / Nov 19; hosts said they will revisit as the regular season continues (Week 12 preview promised).
What listeners should expect next
- A Week 12 preview episode (the hosts flagged a few games to watch and said they’ll dig into the Bucs vs. Rams matchup).
- The table is likely to be revisited later in the season — teams can still prove or disprove their candidacy, but cut teams cannot be restored in this exercise.
Quick memorable quotes
- “If the Broncos win the Super Bowl, I will buzz my head for the draft show.” — humorous stakes the panel tossed around.
- “The Eagles just can’t get the parking brake off of their sports car, whereas the Broncos are just a Toyota Tacoma.” — succinct contrast between Philly’s upside and DEN’s limitations.