Overview of Which outlier stats are most likely to remain outliers?
This mailbag episode of The Athletic Football Show covers a wide range of NFL thought experiments, but it keeps circling back to one big theme: context matters. Dave Helman, Derek Klassen, and Michael Beller debate linebacker tiers, which quarterback stat outliers are sustainable, obscure NFL records, disappointing playoff meltdowns, the traits that could make an “average” quarterback elite, and several draft/career hypotheticals involving Matthew Stafford, running backs, and the Lions’ 2023 draft.
Off-ball linebacker tiers
The episode opens with an in-the-weeds ranking exercise for off-ball linebackers, and Derek Klassen builds a six-tier framework:
- Tier 1: Fred Warner alone as the true “math-changing” linebacker.
- Tier 2: High-end, mostly two-way players like:
- Roquan Smith
- Jordan Brooks
- Ernest Jones
- Carson Schwesinger
- Jack Campbell
- Tier 3: Very good players with some limitation, including:
- Nick Bolton
- Demario Davis
- Aziz Al-Shaair
- Zack Baun
- Jihad Campbell
- Tier 4: Above-average, mostly one-way players such as:
- Robert Spillane
- Nakobe Dean
- Jamien Sherwood
- Quincy Williams
- Leo Chenal
- Edgerrin Cooper
- Tier 5: Average starters with utility, including:
- Blake Cashman
- Devin Lloyd
- Nate Landman
- Foyesade Oluokun
- Henry To’oTo’o
- Zaire Franklin
- Tremaine Edmunds
- TJ Edwards
- Cedric Gray
- Tier 6 / role players: Useful niche defenders and replacement-level options.
Key takeaways on linebackers
- Warner is in a class of his own.
- The position is highly volatile year to year, especially once you get beyond the top group.
- Many linebackers are valuable only in certain roles or systems, making tiers harder than at quarterback.
- Some names, like Devin Lloyd or Zach Baun, are difficult to place because of small-sample spikes or uneven year-to-year play.
Which outlier stats are most likely to stay outliers?
A listener asks why some statistical outliers are treated as sustainable while others are assumed to regress. The hosts use examples like:
- Caleb Williams: elite sack avoidance
- Drake Maye: strong tight-window completion rate
- Cam Ward: ugly EPA/sack numbers
Main argument
The hosts say whether an outlier is “real” depends on:
- Underlying skill
- Supporting cast
- Scheme
- Whether the player can reproduce the trait in different environments
Their conclusions
- Drake Maye: His tight-window completion numbers may be sustainable because they match his college profile and his current weapons are improving.
- Caleb Williams: His sack avoidance feels real because of his movement ability and improving pocket instincts, though Chicago’s offensive line changes could affect it.
- Cam Ward: His bad sack profile is more alarming, but rookie quarterbacks can have extreme, misleading splits. The expectation is that it should improve somewhat, though it may never be elite.
Big-picture point
Not every outlier is fake. Some are real skills that just need:
- better teammates,
- better coaching,
- or a larger sample before they normalize.
Weird records and obscure stats
The episode then shifts to favorite odd NFL records and random one-offs.
Highlights mentioned
- Nick Foles throwing seven touchdowns in a game and being one of the most volatile quarterbacks ever: capable of elite highs and brutal lows.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the 2019 Dolphins in both passing and rushing.
- Jim Harbaugh having more career rushing yards than Bo Jackson.
- Mark Moseley, a kicker, winning NFL MVP in 1982.
Takeaway
The hosts clearly love weird trivia, especially when it comes from players or seasons you’d never expect to be on a record list.
Biggest playoff or season letdowns
The question asks for the most disappointing team or game that “disappeared” on the biggest stage.
Notable examples discussed
- 2015 Panthers: especially the NFC Championship loss to the Cardinals, which felt like a mismatch in the wrong direction.
- 2022 49ers: the quarterback injuries in the NFC title game robbed everyone of a full-strength showdown.
- 2018 Rams: the Super Bowl shutout against the Patriots felt like a total deflation.
- 2019 Ravens: a 14–2 team and unanimous MVP getting completely handled by the Titans.
- 2023 Cowboys: getting boat-raced at home by the Packers as a No. 2 seed.
- 2024 Lions: a painful home loss to the Commanders after an encouraging season.
Overall theme
The most frustrating losses are the ones where:
- a team is expected to thrive,
- but either injuries or a total lack of readiness causes the game to collapse before it starts.
Could a perfect-clock, unshakeable average QB be great?
A hypothetical asks whether an “average” quarterback with a perfect internal clock and no ability to get rattled would still be good.
Host response
Yes — probably very good, maybe even top 10.
Why?
A QB who:
- always knows when to throw,
- never gets fooled by pressure,
- and stays composed under blitzes
would be extremely efficient.
Comparisons used
- Late-career Drew Brees
- A hypothetical upgraded Mac Jones
The point is that good processing and pressure handling can raise an average physical profile dramatically.
Saving a running back from a bad environment
The hosts discuss which running back in history would benefit most from being moved into an elite situation.
Examples and answers
- Todd Gurley and Saquon Barkley are cited as real-world examples of being “rescued” into better environments.
- Current-era example: De’Von Achane, who could thrive in a better situation than Miami’s.
- Older answer: Darren McFadden, whose career was wasted on bad Raiders teams.
- Best answer: Corey Dillon, who spent years piling up huge production on awful Bengals teams before finally getting a shot with the Patriots.
Main point
A great running back on a bad team can become a treadmill of wasted production. The right environment can change a career dramatically.
Would reversing Matthew Stafford’s career change his Hall of Fame case?
The question imagines Stafford’s career in reverse:
- early Rams success,
- later Lions-style mediocrity.
The hosts’ answer
Probably not enough to erase his case, but context matters a lot.
Key arguments
- Stafford entered the league as a savior for a 0–16 Lions team.
- He consistently elevated bad Detroit teams despite limited organizational support.
- His late-career Rams success adds real Hall of Fame weight.
- His prime overlapped with giants like:
- Peyton Manning
- Tom Brady
- Aaron Rodgers
- Drew Brees
Takeaway
Stafford’s career should be judged with heavy attention to the era and teams around him, not just raw awards totals.
Lions draft revisit: Jameer Gibbs vs. Christian Gonzalez
The final major discussion revisits Detroit’s 2023 draft.
The question
Should the Lions have taken Christian Gonzalez at No. 6 instead of trading back for Jameer Gibbs?
Answer
The hosts still lean Gibbs.
Why Gibbs still makes sense
- He gives Detroit a truly unique offensive weapon.
- He is an elite “angle eraser” and explosive playmaker.
- Detroit’s identity has been built around offense and game-breaking speed.
Why Gonzalez was tempting
- Elite man-coverage cornerbacks are more valuable than running backs.
- Detroit had a real cornerback need.
Final nuance
The jury can stay open for years on draft decisions like this, especially when both players are already high-end at their positions.
Main takeaways
- Fred Warner is in a tier by himself.
- Linebacker evaluation is highly dependent on role, scheme, and year-to-year volatility.
- Some quarterback outlier stats are real skills, not just noise.
- Context can make or break career judgments, especially for quarterbacks and running backs.
- The Lions likely still made the right call with Jameer Gibbs, even if Christian Gonzalez was a compelling alternative.
Notable recurring theme
If there’s one unifying idea across the episode, it’s this:
Stats, careers, and playoff performances make the most sense when you factor in the environment around the player.
That’s true for linebackers, quarterbacks, running backs, draft picks, and even the most painful postseason losses.