Overview of The Athletic Football Show
This Mailbag Monday episode is a wide-ranging NFL discussion that moves from roster-building philosophy to hypothetical special teams superpowers, defensive volatility, peak player seasons, elite non-championship teams, and the value of coaching continuity. Robert Mays and Dave Helman answer listener questions by blending analytics, team-building context, and a few fun thought experiments.
Biggest Takeaways
- The “best weak link” question points toward the Rams and Broncos as teams whose worst starters are still relatively strong compared with most of the league.
- A fictional kicker who can make 80-yard field goals at 80% and a punter who can pin opponents inside the 10 from anywhere would almost certainly be first-round talents.
- Defensive quality can absolutely be driven by one or two elite players, but turnovers, sacks, and coverage volatility also explain a lot of year-to-year defensive swings.
- The clearest answer for a three-year peak was J.J. Watt from 2012–2014, with Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Aaron Donald, Odell Beckham Jr., and others also getting strong mention.
- When discussing the best teams that didn’t win the Super Bowl, the conversation centered on squads like the 2016 Falcons, 2018 Saints, 2019 49ers, 2021 Bills, and several recent Ravens/Rams teams.
- Stable quarterback play matters, but the rookie-contract window and cap efficiency may be even more important than simple “certainty.”
- In trade value debates, team context and title window matter more than long-term asset comparisons in a vacuum.
- Advanced stats still struggle to fully capture things like pre-snap QB work, assignment responsibility, coverage roles, and player gravity.
- Teams would almost never fire a successful head coach just to keep a hot OC; if it happens, it’s usually because the HC era has already run its course.
Roster Construction and “Weak Links”
Best worst starter on an NFL roster
The discussion used soccer’s “weak link” concept to ask which NFL teams have the strongest weakest starter in a starting 22. The main answers were:
- Los Angeles Rams
- Denver Broncos
- Also in the conversation:
- Seattle Seahawks
- Houston Texans
- Philadelphia Eagles
The common thread: many of these teams are so solid that their “worst” starter is still a reasonably good NFL player, especially at positions like guard, linebacker, and safety.
Quarterback certainty vs. roster flexibility
A listener asked how much value comes from simply knowing who your quarterback is year to year. The key point:
- Certainty helps, but
- cheap certainty helps more
- The real edge often comes from a rookie-contract QB or a veteran QB playing at a bargain relative to production
Examples discussed:
- Seahawks with Sam Darnold: great value if performance holds at a modest cap hit
- Lions with Jared Goff: maybe slightly expensive, but predictable and manageable
- Kirk Cousins’ Vikings deals: a cautionary tale because frequent contract churn can create long-term roster stress
Hypothetical Special Teams Superstars
The episode spent time on a wild hypothetical:
- Joe Kicker: 80-yard field goals, 80% accuracy
- John Punter: always pins the opponent inside the 10
Main conclusion
Both players would likely be worth first-round picks because of the enormous field-position and scoring value they’d create.
Why it’s tricky
- Kicking and punting are historically volatile
- A special-teams weapon that strong would also likely warp coaching decisions
- Conservative head coaches might become even more risk-averse if field goal range started at midfield
Defensive Volatility and Elite Defensive Players
A listener asked whether a few scheme-defining defenders can make or break a defense. The answer was basically yes, but with nuance.
What elite defenders change
Players like Micah Parsons can:
- collapse protections
- make coverage easier behind them
- improve the rest of the pass rush
- raise the overall floor of the defense
Why defenses still fluctuate year to year
The hosts pointed to several broader causes of defensive volatility:
- turnover luck
- sack variance
- coverage quality
- assignment uncertainty
- the fact that many defensive stats are highly result-driven
The Eagles example with Jalen Carter and Quinyon Mitchell missing time illustrated how much a defense can change when key pieces are absent.
The Best Three-Year Peaks in Recent Memory
This was one of the episode’s most fun segments. The strongest names included:
Top-tier peaks mentioned
- J.J. Watt, 2012–2014 — the strongest overall answer
- Aaron Rodgers, 2014–2016 or possibly 2010–2012
- Tom Brady, 2007–2009
- Aaron Donald, 2017–2019
- Miles Garrett, recent three-year stretch
- Justin Jefferson, first three seasons
- Odell Beckham Jr., 2014–2016
- Peyton Manning and Drew Brees also got honorable mentions
Why Watt stood out
Watt’s peak was framed as absurd even by all-time standards:
- multiple 20-sack seasons
- massive tackle-for-loss numbers
- unusual pass-defense production for an interior/edge defender
- a genuine MVP-level case in 2012
Best Teams That Didn’t Win the Super Bowl
The discussion covered the strongest non-champions from roughly the 2016 season through 2024.
Teams most often mentioned
- 2016 Falcons
- 2018 Saints
- 2019 49ers
- 2021 Bills
- 2023 49ers
- 2023 Ravens
- 2024 Ravens
- 2024 Rams
- 2018 Chiefs as an overlooked but hugely talented team
Notable point
The 2018 Saints were singled out as especially painful because they were so complete and still fell short, with the no-call in the NFC Championship looming large.
Trade Value: Myles Garrett vs. Jared Verse
A listener asked whether the younger, cheaper Jared Verse might be more valuable in a vacuum than Myles Garrett, given age and contract control.
Key response
The hosts argued that this kind of question can’t be separated from:
- team timeline
- quarterback age
- title window
- org-specific urgency
Why Garrett made sense for the Rams
- The Rams are in a very specific win-now window
- Matthew Stafford’s age makes urgency real
- They’re trying to maximize a 2–3 year championship shot, not a 7-year asset horizon
They also pointed to the Rams’ earlier Von Miller trade as evidence that this front office is willing to spend future value for immediate playoff impact.
What Advanced Stats Still Miss
The final major football discussion focused on the limits of modern metrics like:
- success rate
- DVOA
- EPA
What they still can’t fully capture
- Quarterback pre-snap work
- assignment responsibility
- coverage structure and freelancing
- player gravity and how much attention stars pull
- the ability of an offensive tackle to hold up on an island, allowing the rest of the line to be deployed differently
- the full scope of a defender’s coverage range and role
Core idea
Even the best public metrics often measure outcomes, not the true underlying responsibilities or context behind those outcomes.
Coaching Succession: Would a Team Replace a Good HC to Keep an OC?
The last big question: would a team ever get rid of a successful head coach to retain a star offensive coordinator?
Short answer
Almost never.
The hosts’ reasoning
- If a team is successful enough to protect an OC, the head coach is usually still part of the success
- This kind of move only happens if the head coach’s era has already stalled or expired
- More likely outcomes:
- promote the OC
- elevate the HC into a front-office or advisory role
- make a politically soft transition rather than an outright firing
Examples discussed
- Bills / Joe Brady as a case of a coaching shift tied to the era running its course
- Buccaneers / Lovie Smith as a different kind of succession pattern
- Hypothetical examples like Dan Campbell/Ben Johnson or Jim Harbaugh/Mike McDaniel were viewed as very unlikely under normal circumstances
Overall
This episode is a strong showcase of why the mailbag format works so well for The Athletic Football Show: it blends smart roster theory, analytics, and long-view NFL history with playful hypotheticals. The recurring theme throughout is that context matters—whether it’s evaluating a player, a team, a trade, or a coach, value depends heavily on timing, surrounding talent, and the specific competitive window.