Summary of What analytical trends and rule changes tell us about the 2026 season

Overview of What analytical trends and rule changes tell us about the 2026 season

This episode of The Athletic Football Show is a wide-ranging conversation between Robert Mays and former NFL coach/analyst Ryan Paganetti about the strategic trends that could shape the upcoming season. Paganetti draws on his experience with the Eagles, Jaguars, and Raiders to break down how teams are using motion, how the booming kicking game is changing field-position math, and why second-and-long tendencies and fourth-down decision-making are still evolving. The big theme: the NFL is becoming more data-aware, but the best teams are using analytics with nuance rather than blindly following trends.

Ryan Paganetti’s background and current work

From team staff to media/analysis

• Paganetti explained his path through the NFL:
  • Joined the Eagles in 2015.
  • Worked in a coaching/analytics hybrid role, handling game-management decisions like fourth downs, two-point tries, timeouts, and challenges.
  • Later worked with the Jaguars and Raiders.
• He said he recently moved into the media/research space after years in team environments where he couldn’t share much publicly.
• He’s now active on X/Twitter and also launched a YouTube show with Nick Underhill called Paganetti and Underhill.

What he enjoys about the new role

• More freedom to discuss strategy and research.
• Still close to NFL decision-making through consulting and broadcast prep.
• Better work-life balance than the grind of team life.

Motion, shifts, and pre-snap information gathering

Motion is still useful, but defenses have adjusted

• Paganetti argued that the league’s public conversation around motion is too simplistic.
• In the earlier “jet motion” era, motion often displaced defenders and caused obvious chaos.
• Now, defenses have adapted:
  • They move less.
  • They disguise better.
  • They often sit in two-high shells and use universal answers like Cover 4/6.
• That means motion is less about automatic advantage and more about gathering information.

The most valuable motion is the kind that forces a response

• He highlighted motions that:
  • Force a linebacker or safety to declare coverage.
  • Reveal blitz intentions.
  • Expose how a defense is setting its front or matching personnel.
• He particularly likes:
  • Tight end shifts and alignments.
  • Running back motions that sprint or “burst” across the formation.
  • Quick changes of strength to test whether the defense resets.

Offenses can exploit defensive rules

• A key concept was that many defenses have built-in checks and limits on how often they’ll reset fronts.
• If an offense understands those rules, it can use repeated motions/shift-backs to stress the defense.
• Paganetti emphasized that the best offensive staffs are essentially trying to “mine” the pre-snap period for information.

The kicking game is changing the math

Field position is dramatically better than it used to be

• Robert Mays pointed to major shifts in field position and long field-goal accuracy.
• Paganetti agreed that the kicking environment has changed a lot:
  • Drives start in better field position more often.
  • Long field goals are more common and more successful.
  • Teams are going for it more on fourth down.

Kicking range is expanding

• Paganetti noted that long field goals are now much more realistic than they were just a few years ago.
• He discussed tracking data showing kicks going farther with newer ball preparations.
• He shared that some kickers now have legitimate range well beyond 55 yards, with some even threatening 60+ from comfortable situations.

The new ball and equipment prep matter

• He described how changes to the K-balls and week-long ball preparation have made a huge difference.
• He joked that some staff members may be especially valuable for their ability to “work” the ball into better kicking condition.
• The result: kickers and special teams units now have to be treated as major strategic assets.

Kickoff and punting value is also shifting

• Touchbacks, directional kicking, and kickoff placement can create hidden field-position wins.
• Punting volume is down because more teams are going for it on fourth down.
• The overall kicking landscape is more valuable and more strategic than many fans realize.

Second-and-long, tendency management, and situational play calling

Ben Johnson’s influence on tendency-breaking

• Mays brought up Ben Johnson’s approach, especially his effort to make run/pass splits look closer to 50/50 in different situations.
• Paganetti said this kind of balance is highly useful for:
  • Preventing defenses from keying on tendencies.
  • Making it harder to game-plan exact calls.
  • Keeping the offense less predictable over the long season.

Second-and-long runs are becoming more viable

• The discussion focused heavily on second-and-7-plus situations.
• Historically, those were obvious passing downs.
• Now, with:
  • more aggressive fourth-down decisions,
  • more disguised defensive fronts,
  • and more willingness to treat second down like a “live” down, running can be a better choice than it used to be.

He still prefers efficiency over style

• Paganetti said he still leans toward passing in more obvious long-yardage spots.
• But he thinks the best offenses:
  • use tendency balance during the season,
  • then lean into their most efficient option in huge moments.
• He also distinguished between third-and-one and fourth-and-one:
  • Fourth-and-one can justify a bigger explosive-play swing.
  • Third-and-one is more about staying on schedule and preserving the chance to keep the drive alive.

Big-picture takeaways for the season

What to watch early in the year

• Which teams adapt well to the new motion environment.
• Which offenses copy the under-center, wide-zone, and big-personnel trends successfully.
• Which teams struggle because they imitate the trend without the system, coaching, or technique to support it.
• How often teams really embrace second-and-long runs and more balanced tendency profiles.

The central message

• NFL strategy is getting more analytical, but the smartest teams are using analytics as a tool, not a script.
• Success comes from understanding:
  • field position,
  • defensive rules and responses,
  • motion as an information tool,
  • and the changing value of kicks, fourth downs, and short-yardage plays.

Where Ryan Paganetti is sharing his work

• X/Twitter: Ryan Paganetti
• YouTube: Paganetti and Underhill with Nick Underhill