Overview of The Athletic Football Show — “The breakout players we're counting on for the 2026 season”
Robert Mays, Dave Helman, and Derek Brown turned a “breakout players” discussion into an eight-round fantasy-style draft, selecting 24 NFL players they believe are poised for a major leap in 2026. The conversation centered on defining what counts as a breakout, balancing upside vs. established production, and identifying young players whose roles, health, or surrounding situations could unlock a big step forward.
Draft Rules and Framework
The hosts set a few guardrails to keep the exercise focused:
- No players who have ever made a Pro Bowl
- No players who made the PFWA All-Rookie Team in their rookie season
- If a player feels “too good” for the exercise, the other hosts can object and force a different selection
They also emphasized that “breakout” is fluid:
- For some players, it means moving from good to very good
- For others, it means going from promising to near-star territory
- Health, role growth, and team context all mattered
The Breakout Draft Picks
Round 1
- Robert Mays: Paris Johnson Jr.
- A young, ascending left tackle who is entering his prime and could take another step as a pass protector.
- Dave Helman: Omarion Hampton
- Loved the size/speed combo and the idea that he can be a true three-down, high-volume back for the Chargers.
- Derek Brown: Walter Nolen
- A high-upside interior defensive lineman with rare explosiveness and disruptive traits; injuries held him back from a fuller rookie breakout.
Round 2
- Dave Helman: Luther Burden III
- Strong efficiency numbers and a path to major volume in Chicago after DJ Moore’s exit.
- Derek Brown: Amarius Mims
- A massive, powerful Bengals right tackle who could take a major step with a more diversified run game.
- Robert Mays: Malachi Starks
- A versatile Ravens safety whose instincts, tackling, and role under a new coach make him a strong breakout bet.
Round 3
- Dave Helman: Noah Williams
- The Chiefs corner impressed immediately and could become a more prominent part of a stronger, more man-heavy secondary.
- Robert Mays: Josh Simmons
- A promising young tackle for Kansas City whose flashes suggested a much bigger year once healthy.
- Derek Brown: Dallas Turner
- A young edge rusher with obvious athletic traits and a full opportunity slate in Brian Flores’ defense.
Round 4
- Derek Brown: Jonas Sanker
- A smart, rangy Saints safety who impressed as a rookie and fits the back-end role perfectly.
- Robert Mays: Craig Woodson
- A downhill, run-defending Patriots safety who was one of the league’s best rookies in that role.
- Dave Helman: Yaya Diaby
- A power-based Buccaneers edge rusher who could jump from good to great if Tampa’s defense improves around him.
Round 5
- Dave Helman: Warren McClendon Jr.
- A sneaky high-upside Rams tackle who could become a big-money player if he continues to develop.
- Derek Brown: Nick Scourton
- A violent, stout edge rusher who may not be a superstar, but has the profile of a very useful NFL defensive lineman.
- Robert Mays: Dylan Fairchild
- A Bengals guard whose year-two leap could help Cincinnati’s offense become more dynamic in the run game.
Round 6
- Derek Brown: Patrick Paul
- A massive Dolphins tackle with real movement skills and strong long-term upside.
- Robert Mays: Tykee Smith
- A versatile Buccaneers defensive back with excellent click-and-close ability and real playmaking traits.
- Dave Helman: Ricky Pearsall
- A healthy Pearsall could become a major target-efficient weapon in San Francisco’s passing game.
Round 7
- Dave Helman: Rome Odunze
- The Bears receiver who could break out if Chicago’s offense takes the expected step forward.
- Derek Brown: Cedric Gray
- A Titans linebacker whose run-filling ability and a more supportive defensive structure could help him pop in year two.
- Robert Mays: Austin Booker
- A young Bears edge rusher whose late-season flashes and pass-rush traits make him a strong upside swing.
Round 8
- Dave Helman: Upton Stout
- A feisty, undersized corner with a ton of energy and some real “chaos merchant” value.
- Derek Brown: Billy Bowman Jr.
- Another undersized but high-energy defensive back, this time for Atlanta, who could thrive if the Falcons defense improves.
- Robert Mays: Jalen Travis
- A massive Colts offensive lineman with length, movement skills, and developmental upside if he gets a full offseason as a starter.
Players the Hosts Considered “Too Good” or Close Calls
Several notable names were discussed but ultimately ruled out, either because they felt too established or too recognizable for the exercise:
- Byron Murphy II — deemed too good
- Colston Loveland — too good
- Michael Wilson — too productive/established
- Travis Hunter — eligible by the rules, but debated as too famous/too hyped to fit the spirit of the draft
- Matthew Golden — mentioned as a player who probably would have gone higher if the conversation had lasted longer
Main Takeaways
1. Youth and role growth matter most
The strongest breakout candidates were players who:
- Are still early in their careers
- Have shown flashes already
- May be stepping into a larger role in 2026
2. Injuries can create breakout windows
Players like:
- Walter Nolen
- Omarion Hampton
- Ricky Pearsall
- Josh Simmons
were viewed as especially attractive because missed time kept them from fully breaking out already.
3. The NFL’s young safety class is deep
The hosts repeatedly returned to how many promising young safeties exist right now, including:
- Malachi Starks
- Craig Woodson
- Jonas Sanker
- Tykee Smith
- Billy Bowman
4. Team context drives breakout potential
A number of picks were tied to schematic or roster changes:
- Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze benefiting from a more productive Bears offense
- Amarius Mims and Dylan Fairchild in a Bengals offense evolving its run game
- Noah Williams and Malachi Starks in stronger defensive systems
- Dallas Turner with more snaps available in Minnesota
Bottom Line
This was less a list of “best players” and more a draft of players with the best combination of:
- talent
- age
- opportunity
- and room to grow in 2026
If you want the short version: the hosts are especially bullish on young offensive tackles, explosive defensive linemen, and a deep class of ascending safeties, with players like Omarion Hampton, Walter Nolen, Luther Burden III, Dallas Turner, Ricky Pearsall, and Rome Odunze standing out as the most compelling breakout bets.