Three questions about the 2026 QB draft class

Summary of Three questions about the 2026 QB draft class

by The Athletic

1h 5m•April 2, 2026
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Overview of Three questions about the 2026 QB draft class

Episode from The Athletic Football Show — hosts Robert Mays and Derek Klassen — focused on three targeted questions about the 2026 quarterback crop: (1) Who is Fernando Mendoza as a prospect and what is his ceiling? (2) Is Ty Simpson worth a late first‑round flyer? and (3) Outside the top 50, who is the best bet to become a capable starter during his rookie deal? The conversation mixes detailed tape observations, comps, scheme/fit discussion (especially Mendoza-to‑Raiders), draft range recommendations, and clear “what to watch” items for each player.

Key takeaways

  • Fernando Mendoza is the class’s clear top prospect on tools alone: prototype size (about 6'5", ~230), elite arm strength, accurate downfield throws, athletic enough to be an efficient scrambler, and a tough pocket presence. Concerns: heavy RPO college usage, sack rate/processing under pressure, and limited play‑creation outside of structure.
  • Derek and Robert view Mendoza as a legitimate No. 1 pick and see him in the same general archetype as Carson Palmer (and physically closer to Trevor Lawrence than Jared Goff in some traits). Best outcome: top‑10 NFL QB. Floor: a low‑end starter like Sam Darnold in his weaker moments.
  • Ty Simpson is a high‑variance, creative, mobile shorter QB (around 6'1") with some big‑play flashes but accuracy and consistency concerns. The hosts think he’s not an obvious first‑rounder unless a team values the fifth‑year option highly; his optimal landing spot is mid‑second round (or later) in a team that can develop him slowly.
  • Among later picks, Garrett Nussmeier is the single best bet to become a usable starter in his rookie contract — a “Brock Purdy / Jimmy Garoppolo hybrid” profile: accurate, smart, stands in and makes throws, limited elite athleticism/arm but a high floor as a backup/spot starter.
  • The panel repeatedly emphasizes fit and timeline: many QBs here benefit from sitting and learning an NFL offense before being asked to start.

Question 1 — Fernando Mendoza: who is he and what is his ceiling?

Short synopsis

Mendoza is a prototype, modern NFL QB with rare arm power and range. Watching his tape altered the hosts’ prior expectations — his deep ball, ability to hit throws from opposite hashes and on the move, and pocket toughness stood out. Yet his college offense (heavy RPOs at Indiana/Cal) limits the reps he had in pure NFL drop‑back concepts.

Strengths

  • Size and physical profile: 6'5", ~230 — prototype frame.
  • Exceptional arm strength and mid/long‑range accuracy; makes difficult outside‑the‑numbers throws look easy.
  • Throws well from multiple platforms and on the move.
  • Toughness — will stand in and take hits; efficient scrambler when he decides to run.
  • High ceiling: comparable in archetype to Carson Palmer (big, powerful, accurate on deep shots) and in some traits closer to Trevor Lawrence than Jared Goff.

Concerns / Weaknesses

  • College offense heavy in RPOs and quick game; fewer reps in pro‑style drop‑back/presnap progression concepts.
  • Pressure/sack rate: took a lot of sacks at Cal and still had a high pressure‑to‑sack rate at Indiana; can panic in the pocket at times.
  • Not a consistent play‑creator/elastic‑arm improviser like Mahomes/Lamar/Josh Allen — when pressured he often resorts to running rather than improvising throws.
  • Some decision‑making and processing refinements needed transitioning to more complex NFL schemes.

Draft value and fit (Raiders)

  • The hosts strongly support Mendoza as a worthy No. 1 overall pick — more than many prior No. 1s; they prefer him to several past top picks.
  • Best path: let him sit and learn (Clint Kubiak has said rookies can benefit from sitting). A planned phase‑in (veteran starter for early season, Mendoza late year) is ideal.
  • Fit with Raiders/Kubiak: good. Mendoza throws well on the move and can handle boot/play‑action concepts; main mismatch is the Raiders’ lack of a clear receiver who excels at the precise outside back‑shoulder throws Mendoza loves — roster building around him will matter.

Question 2 — Ty Simpson: is he worth a late first‑round flyer?

Player profile

  • Mobile, creative, aggressive QB who makes highlight plays when given space (boots, keeps, off‑platform throws).
  • Size and age concerns: about 6'1", mid‑200s (listed ~211 at combine) and older (23), with only one year as a full starter at Alabama and some injuries/banged‑up stretch.
  • Tape shows big flashes but also accuracy drains (especially when straining or under duress), uneven decision‑making, and up‑and‑down consistency.

Pros

  • Creativity and ability to extend plays; willing to take downfield shots.
  • Comfortable in boot/keeper structure and on the move — useful for certain NFL schemes.
  • Competitiveness and some feel for spacing and receivers in open field.

Cons

  • Smaller frame, limited arm/velocity compared to top‑tier prospects.
  • Accuracy under pressure and timing issues (Sports Info Solutions accuracy metric was notably below other recent first‑round QBs).
  • Inconsistent college resume (one year as starter; injury knots).
  • Not an elite ceiling athletic/arm wise — ceiling exists but is narrower.

Draft recommendation / range

  • The hosts are skeptical of taking Simpson in the back half of Round 1 unless a team is explicitly valuing the fifth‑year option and comfortable taking a swing.
  • Preferred range: mid‑second to late‑second round (rough range suggested ~45–70). Second round lets teams treat him like a developmental off‑ramp without risking significant capital.
  • Best fits: teams who can develop him slowly and already have veteran stability or pick flexibility. Suggested fits include: Rams (if they want an off‑ramp), Atlanta (as a succession plan), Pittsburgh, Dallas (later), possibly Tampa Bay/Arizona depending on team situations. Avoid taking him to bad organizations without structure.

Question 3 — Outside the top 50: who’s the best bet to start during rookie contract?

Garrett Nussmeier — the top late‑round bet

  • Hosts agree Nussmeier is the most likely later pick to develop into a capable starter.
  • Profile: accurate, smart, rhythm passer; not elite arm but smooth and quick release; pocket mobility/flexibility to create modest extension.
  • Comp: an amalgam between Brock Purdy (creativity, quick decisions) and Jimmy Garoppolo (smooth, timing‑based, stands in for throws).
  • Ceiling: functional starter in a complementary offense (mid‑to‑high teens in QB production); floor: long‑term quality backup.
  • Suggested landing spots (by pick range): Green Bay (84), Rams (if available mid‑third), Cincinnati around 72 (fit and need debated), Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay (77), Philly in the third round as a developmental option.

Other dart throws / noteworthy names

  • Carson Beck: viewed as a late dart (mid‑rounds/late day 3). Suffered a perception drop after 2024 but flashed at Miami; has improved size/strength and can be useful as a backup or developmental starter. Possible fit example: Cleveland at pick ~107 with coach Todd Monken.
  • General principle: late day‑2 to day‑3 QBs in this class are best taken as low‑cost developmental pieces or backup insurance, not immediate franchise answers.

Practical recommendations (for teams / evaluators)

  • If you draft Mendoza No. 1: plan for a measured development timeline (sit early, install pro concepts, then phase him in). Build complementary personnel (a receiver who excels on outside back‑shoulder and intermediate “stop”/back‑shoulder throws).
  • If you consider Simpson: prefer taking him in the second round so you can develop him without heavy capital; ensure quality coaching and stability before committing him as a starter.
  • When drafting later QBs (Nussmeier/Beck): prioritize systems that match their strengths (timing‑based, quick‑read, play‑action frameworks) and be comfortable using them as high‑value backups who could start in the right circumstances.

Notable quotes / succinct lines

  • Mendoza comp: “He reminds me of Carson Palmer” — both in size and how he attacks the field with long‑range, back‑shoulder/outs.
  • On Mendoza’s ceiling: “Everything short of the fire‑breathing dragon guys is on the table for him.”
  • On Simpson’s draft value: “Only if you really, really value the fifth‑year option.”
  • Nussmeier as a dart: “The perfect middle point between Brock Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo.”

Closing notes

  • The hosts acknowledge this QB class is “strange” — fewer surefire immediate first‑round franchise locks beyond Mendoza — and that fit, scheme, and development timelines will be decisive.
  • They recommend close tape work on Mendoza (to correct misconceptions) and caution teams against overpaying for upside like Simpson’s in Round 1.
  • Episode context: they preview receiver coverage (Beast video breakdown content release noted for April 8).