Overview of Super Bowl LX Preview (The Athletic Football Show)
This episode is a detailed Super Bowl LX preview recorded on Radio Row in San Francisco. Hosts Robert Mays, Derek, and Dave break down how two long-shot teams (each projected ~8.5 wins preseason) reached the Super Bowl, evaluate storylines around coaches and quarterbacks, and walk through schematic matchups—Patriots offense vs. Seahawks defense and Seahawks offense vs. Patriots defense. They assess personnel, play-calling edges, special teams, injury questions, and deliver a final lean: Seattle to win and cover.
Key takeaways / main themes
- This is an unexpected Super Bowl—both teams were long shots entering the season and represent early returns of new head-coach eras (Mike McDonald in Seattle, Mike Vrabel in New England).
- Seahawks are seen as having the edge overall, primarily because of an elite pass-rushing/defensive front and schematic mastery by Mike McDonald.
- Patriots offense can only realistically win if it lands multiple “haymakers” (several explosive plays downfield) and avoids massive pass-protection breakdowns.
- Patriots defense is New England’s clearest path to victory: force turnovers, sack the QB, and make the game ugly.
- Special teams (particularly kickers) are a possible swing factor.
Narrative & franchise storylines
- Mike McDonald: If Seattle wins, he’ll be one of the first modern defensive-minded head coaches (primary defensive play-caller) to win a Super Bowl—a possible influence on future hiring trends.
- Sam Darnold: A “second-chance” narrative—if he performs well, it strengthens the viability of acquiring/developing mid‑tier veteran QBs as a route to contention.
- Drake May: MVP contention + Super Bowl appearance in Year 2 elevates his long-term profile dramatically; breakout player in the national QB hierarchy.
- Patriots’ retool: New England’s defense took time to click but has been dominant late; offense is explosive at times but vulnerable up front.
Patriots offense vs Seahawks defense
What Patriots need to do
- Create explosives (20+ air yards) — Patriots thrive on chunk plays and must hit a few to beat Seattle.
- Use empty formations and pre-snap manipulation (Patriots are strong in empty: ~7.9 yards/play) to try and expose coverage tendencies.
- Test heavy personnel (jumbo) early to learn Seattle’s responses and possibly force nickel mismatches.
Biggest problems for New England
- Pass protection: Drake May has been sacked a playoff-high 15 times; 48.4% sack rate on pressured dropbacks in the postseason—this is a major concern against Seattle’s long-armed edge rushers (Demarcus Lawrence, Uchenna Nwosu, etc.).
- Seahawks’ defensive schematic advantages: high single-high/split-safety usage (~78% single-high pre-snap), elite ability to create unblocked pressures without blitzing, and excellent manipulation of protections.
- Line matchups: Will Campbell has struggled vs. long-arm pass rushers; Seattle’s second wave and pressure design can consistently create chaos.
Narrow paths that exist
- Targeting specific matchup wins (isolations on CBs like Josh Jobe, or getting Keyshawn Haughton on favorable matchups) and using empty to create quick passing strike opportunities.
- Small-ball run with extra linemen/jumbo—only if Nick Emanwari (ankle) can handle snaps and Seattle chooses to stay small on defense; still an unlikely sustaining strategy.
- Scrambles / designed QB mobility—May’s athleticism could produce scrambler-based chunk plays, but Seattle defends quarterback scrambles well.
Seahawks offense vs Patriots defense
What Seattle should do
- Attack on the perimeter: Seahawks’ run game in the playoffs has leaned heavily to perimeter/outside runs; Patriots have been weak on outside-run defense since midseason (31st in outside-run success rate since Week 10).
- Use multiple looks for Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN): put him in the backfield, in the slot, or inside to avoid New England’s boundary corners and create mismatches.
- Get Kenneth Walker involved in schemes that move the line and create perimeter gaps; use QB boots and pre-snap motion to free Sam Darnold.
Patriots’ defensive path to victory
- Disrupt the run and get Detroit-style interior pressure: Milton Williams/Christian Barmore pressure vs. Seahawks’ interior (Leonard Williams/Byron Murphy also strong)—getting into the backfield is critical.
- Force third-and-long: Patriots blitz and disguise coverages to manufacture negative plays, sacks, tipped balls and turnovers.
- Limit JSN’s impact by physical boundary coverage or occasional doubles; daring New England to make others beat them.
X-factors & matchup details
- Pass rush vs. pass protection: Seattle’s long-armed rushers match up extremely well vs. Will Campbell’s blindside and the Patriot tackles. If Seattle consistently pressures, Patriots’ offensive plan collapses.
- 12-personnel (two TEs + RB) usage: Seattle in 12 vs. base (big) yields huge passing production; vs. nickel his efficiency drops massively. Patriots’ decision to match 12 with nickel or base (often depends on players like Brandon Spillane) will be decisive.
- Blitzing tendencies: Patriots blitzed ~40% of dropbacks since Week 14 bye (up from ~24%), and they run varied, confusing zone/blitz looks. Sam Darnold is strong initially under pressure but holds the ball longer in some moments, increasing turnover potential.
- Kenneth Walker usage: He played only 226 passing snaps all season and rarely blocks; forcing checkdowns or using him creatively can change third-down dynamics.
- Special teams / kickers: Jason Myers is top-10 in field-goal over expectation; Seattle’s Adam Boragallis has had a rough season (negative FGOE) and misses could force more aggressive decisions.
- Injuries to watch: Nick Emanwari’s sprained ankle and whether he is full-time on snaps in jumbo personnel.
Notable stats referenced
- Both teams had preseason over/under win projections around 8.5.
- Drake May: 15 postseason sacks allowed (most by a Super Bowl-reaching passer since 1970); 48.4% sack rate on pressured dropbacks in postseason.
- Seahawks pre-snap single-high rate ~78% (vs Patriots’ 42% for the year).
- Patriots blitzing rate since Week 14 bye: ~40% of dropbacks (vs ~24% before).
- Seattle in 12-personnel vs base when passing: 11.3 air yards per attempt, 31% explosive rate, 62% success rate; those numbers fall sharply vs nickel.
- Kenneth Walker: 226 passing snaps this season; blocked on 29 of them.
- Special teams: Andrew Boragallis one of eight kickers with negative field-goal-over-expectation; Jason Myers in top-10 for FGOE.
Final lean / prediction
- Hosts favor the Seattle Seahawks. The game was listed ~SEA -4.5; hosts think Seattle wins and covers or the Patriots make it a low-scoring, ugly contest.
- Example scorelines floated: Seattle 25–20 or 24–16. The main plausible Patriots path is an ugly, turnover-driven game in New England’s favor; otherwise Seattle’s defense and controlled offensive plan should prevail.
Actionable "what to watch" during the game
- First 10 minutes: how often can New England successfully run jumbo personnel and whether Emanwari is on the field at full snaps.
- Pass protection vs. long-arm rushers: Will Campbell’s success vs. Lawrence/Nwosu—early pressure patterns will forecast the game.
- Explosives (20+ air yards): number of Patriots completions over 20 air yards—if Patriots hit 2–3, they have a shot.
- Seattle 12-personnel snaps and Patriots’ response (nickel vs base) — watch how Spillane’s presence (or absence) affects matchups.
- Third-and-long conversion rate for Seattle vs Patriots’ blitz looks: both the blitz success and potential turnovers.
- Kenneth Walker’s snap count in passing situations and whether he’s kept on-field for checkdowns/protection.
- Special teams: any missed field goals or big returns (Rashid Shaheed, Marcus Jones) that swing momentum.
Notable quotes / concise insights
- “If you remove the fact we’ve seen these franchises in a Super Bowl before, what a cool story for both teams.” — on the narrative quality of this matchup.
- “Mike McDonald could reshape the league if he wins—owners watch winners.” — on the potential coaching ripple effect.
- “Patriots need haymakers; their path to win is explosive plays.” — summary of New England’s offensive reality.
- “The Patriots’ best path is uglifying the game: turnovers, negative plays, and boots on third-and-long.” — on New England’s defensive approach.
This summary collects the episode’s tactical breakdowns, personnel notes, statistical anchors, and the hosts’ final reasoning. It should help you follow the core matchups and key storylines while watching Super Bowl LX.