Overview of The Athletic Football Show — "Lessons learned from this season's conference title game participants"
Host Robert Mays is joined by Bill Barnwell (ESPN) and Nate Tice (Yahoo) to mine lessons from the four teams that reached conference championship weekend: Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks and Rams. The conversation identifies on-field trends, personnel implications, roster construction lessons and organizational/market themes revealed by those teams’ paths. The hosts use stats, game examples and personnel breakdowns to offer practical takeaways for teams and evaluators heading into the offseason.
Key takeaways (by theme)
Explosive plays rule the modern NFL
- The biggest differentiator in 2024–25 is explosive play differential (defined roughly as 12+ yd rushes or 16+ yd passes). Seahawks ranked #1, Rams #2, Patriots #4 and Broncos #5 in explosive play differential; Packers were #3.
- Producing and preventing explosives matters more than total yardage or red-zone efficiency. One explosive can flip field position or get you into scoring range given modern kickoff/touchback norms and longer field-goal range.
- Pass-game explosiveness reduces the necessity for explosive rushes; coaches chase combinations of success rate and explosive rate (Nate’s working thresholds: ~14% pass explosive rate, ~40% rushing success rate).
Personnel construction: tight ends, receivers and formation design
- Tight ends who can block and also be “valid” receiving options (i.e., not negative plays) are hugely valuable. Multi-TE sets (the Rams, Bills, Broncos examples) create run-game lanes and move perimeter defenders in space.
- Bigger perimeter receivers are re-emerging as defenses play more zone/two-high shells; size helps win contested boundary and intermediate areas.
- Offensive use of personnel to limit defensive options matters: 13‑personnel, “nub” tight-end sets and strong-side-in-the-boundary formations are ways to force defenses into smaller decision sets and predictable responses.
Interior defensive line and pressure depth
- Front-four pressure rate is a common trait of the final four — all four teams finished near the top-10 in pressure rate. Interior pass-rushers are especially valuable: many of the top interior pressure producers (Zach Allen, Kobe Turner, Leonard Williams, Jeffrey Simmons, Chris Jones, Chris Jones, Christian Barmore, Byron Murphy, Milton Williams) play on these teams.
- Depth matters: successful teams rotate a variety of interior/edge types — maulers, gap shooters, athletic stunts — and treat the DL like “hockey lines” (you’ll always need one more).
- Practical rule: if you can’t consistently pressure from the interior, it’s very hard to sustain elite defensive performance in the postseason.
Simplify opponents and force predictable responses
- A recurring coaching goal: reduce the number of things an opponent can do. Techniques include motion, personnel (13, empty, nub), and formation (boundary overload) to shrink the defense’s option set.
- When you can force defensive checks into only a few responses, you can script advantages (Shanahan/Kubiak examples, Seahawks’ use of empty, Rams’ 13-personnel work).
Play-action and under-center resurgence
- Play-action/fakes returned as an important tool; teams are using more downhill/duo-gap-style fakes than the earlier “zone fake” variety. Rams and Seahawks led the league in under-center rates (Rams #1, Seahawks #2; Patriots #9, Broncos #16).
- Play action is now used less to access the exact same intermediate shots as a decade ago and more as a way to hide intentions and create multiple pre-snap possibilities.
Nickel/hybrid defenders and the value of a “big” nickel
- Hybrid slot/box defenders (bigger nickels) who can run, blitz and tackle in space are increasingly necessary to operate in today’s sub-package, high-passing environment.
- Nick Emanwary–type players, Derwin James–type flex safeties and other multi-role DBs can be “tipping points” for a defense — expect teams to seek similar hybrids.
Special teams remain a deciding phase
- Special-teams performance (punt returns, kickoff coverage, punting placement) materially affected field position and scoring opportunities in key games. Seahawks (5 special-teams TDs), Patriots (3) highlighted how the fourth phase still swings playoff games.
- With kickoffs/touchbacks and longer FG range, a single return or coffin-corner punt can be huge — don’t disregard returners/punters/long snappers in roster planning.
QB market & aggressive roster decisions
- There are multiple viable QB/contract approaches: expensive top-tier (Stafford), mid-tier/cheap (Patriots’ QB room), and low-cost signings that can outperform expectations (Seahawks’ Sam Darnold contract viewed as a market inefficiency).
- Ownership and front offices showed unprecedented aggressiveness: rapid firings, trades, heavy FA spending, and quick window targeting changed timelines — rebuilding vs. “win-now” choices are being made more often and faster.
- The coaching/GM hiring market is tight: many teams want the same archetypes, and there’s concern about a shortage of fresh high-upside head-coach candidates.
Stats & specific evidence cited
- Explosive play thresholds used: ~12-yd rushes and ~16-yd passes.
- Explosive play differential: Seahawks #1, Rams #2, Packers #3, Patriots #4, Broncos #5.
- Interior pressure leaders (PFF-style pressure numbers): Zach Allen, Kobe Turner, Leonard Williams, Jeffrey Simmons, Chris Jones, Christian Barmore, Byron Murphy, Milton Williams — many of these players are on the Final Four teams.
- Under-center dropback rates: Rams #1, Seahawks #2, Patriots #9, Broncos #16.
- Special teams: Seahawks 5 special-teams TDs (including playoffs); Patriots 3.
- Next Gen stat: strong-side runs (runs toward tight end) reached historical highs in success rate in 2024.
Tactical recommendations (for teams / front offices)
- Prioritize explosive-play creation and prevention when building offenses and defenses — it moves the needle more than total yardage.
- Invest in interior pass rush and depth across defensive line types. Build “diverse” DL rooms (maulers, gap shooters, athletic tackles) and rotate them.
- Value multi-role tight ends who can block and be credible receiving options — they increase formation versatility and hide intentions.
- Do not neglect special teams: invest in returners, punters, and coverage specialists; field position wins low-variance playoff games.
- Consider hiring/acquiring nickel/hybrid defenders who create matchup problems and let you play sub packages as your base.
- Use personnel and formation (13, boundary strong, nub TE, empty) to reduce opponent complexity and create predictable defensive reactions you can exploit.
- Be deliberate but opportunistic in aggression: quick rebuilds and contrarian QB plays can work, but they carry risk. Diversify spending and roster construction when possible.
Trends to watch this offseason
- Continued bidding for interior rushers and hybrid defenders in free agency and the draft.
- Teams experimenting with personnel sets that limit defensive choices (more 13-personnel and nub/one-by-three looks).
- How teams value play-callers and whether more defensive-minded head coaches get bigger opportunities after this year’s finals included defensive coaches.
- Special-teams investment and whether franchises re-emphasize returners/punters given field-position effects.
- Coaching carousel: which new trees (McDonald/Harbaugh/Payton/Ben Johnson branches) produce the next wave of hires?
Notable quotes / soundbites
- Barnwell: “What really matters in the NFL now is… explosive plays and your ability to produce explosive plays and stop explosive plays.”
- Recurrent theme: “You need to be ‘legit enough’ on offense — you don’t have to be the absolute best, but you must clear the threshold for explosiveness and success rate.”
Bottom line
The Final Four teams show multiple viable paths to contention: build an elite offense, build a disruptive defense centered on interior pressure and hybrid defenders, or combine smart personnel and coaching to exceed expectations quickly. Across all approaches, controlling explosive plays, forming personnel that limits opponent choices (tight ends, 13-sets, nub), investing in interior D-line depth and special teams consistently appear as game‑winning priorities. Front offices will have to decide whether to double down on offense or double down on disruptive defensive construction — and many are now doing both more aggressively and more quickly than in past cycles.