Overview of Divisional Round Preview: The best weekend of the NFL season
This episode of The Athletic Football Show (host Robert Mays, plus Dave Hellman and Derek Klassen) is a deep preview of the NFL Divisional Round. The crew breaks down all four games, highlights matchups and game plans, notes injury impacts, and offers the tactical levers each team must pull to win. Recurring theme: this is the best weekend of the NFL season — and every game features clear strengths/weaknesses that make outcomes hard to predict.
Key takeaways
- Divisional Weekend feels unusually fresh: several newly built teams and defenses are dominating narratives (not just the star quarterbacks).
- The most important single-unit defenses remaining: Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks; the Texans defense in particular could be the best single unit left.
- Many games hinge on one pivotal element: Bills–Broncos (Broncos run game / possession control), 49ers–Seahawks (Niners’ ability to create vertical/edge plays without George Kittle), Texans–Patriots (can Patriots’ offense beat Houston’s defense?), Rams–Bears (can Bears sustain chunk plays and pressure Matthew Stafford?).
- Injuries and personnel changes materially affect schemes and matchups; monitor final practice reports.
Game-by-game preview
Bills at Broncos (Broncos -1; O/U ~45.5)
- Big-picture: Coin-flip feel. Broncos finished 14–3, excellent defense, but show flaws; Bills are hit by receiver injuries but still have Josh Allen — the matchup’s best player.
- Broncos strengths: top-tier defensive unit (ranked high in DVOA); upgraded linebacker/safety help (names discussed); ability to jam box and play man coverage to choke 11-personnel passing.
- Bills strengths / path to win: use tight ends (Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox) for explosive plays; establish some form of the run game (duo/zone concepts); Josh Allen can create tempo and big moments.
- Tactical edges:
- Broncos: crowd the box, single up Bills receivers, force Allen to beat man coverage.
- Bills: attack seams/tight ends, double-team Zach Allen on inside runs, target Broncos’ tendencies to give up outside/TE explosiveness.
- Key hinge: Broncos’ ability to run sustained drives (control possessions) vs. Bills’ ability to manufacture chunk plays from Allen and tight ends.
- Expected script: low-to-moderate scoring (24–21 type range). Hard to pick decisively.
49ers at Seahawks (Seahawks -7)
- Big-picture: Seattle looks like the clearest favorite. San Francisco is missing key pieces (George Kittle out for the year; Fred Warner later confirmed out), which compresses their offensive options.
- Seahawks strengths: deep, physical defense that can compress pockets (demonstrated pressure and dime packages), limit Purdy’s comfortable throws.
- 49ers strengths / path to win: need Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall available to open verticals and buy Brock Purdy time; manufacture explosives through McCaffrey/Juszczyk motion and creative formations.
- Tactical edges:
- Seahawks: squeeze windows, play split-safety/dime packages, force quick decisions and pressure Purdy.
- 49ers: create conflict with motion, get McCaffrey/Juszczyk involved in space, dial up chip protections to counter Demarcus Lawrence and the rush.
- Key hinge: whether the Niners can generate enough explosive plays without Kittle and with compressed pocket windows.
- Expected script: low-scoring, physical game. The Niners’ best path is an ugly, defensive slog where they win in the teens.
Texans at Patriots (Patriots -3.5)
- Big-picture: perhaps the toughest game to pick. This is a strength-on-strength matchup: Houston’s elite defense vs. a highly efficient Patriots offense (led by the dynamic young QB discussed as “Drake May” in the episode).
- Texans strengths: ferocious front seven and coverage schemes (lots of quarters/cover 3/4); rarely blitz—rush-four success; they can “nuke” opponents and control games defensively.
- Patriots strengths / path to win: attack Houston’s single-high/quart ers seams and condensed sets; take downfield shots when the Texans play man or are susceptible; creativity in pass rush and cover zero usage by the Pats could flip value.
- Tactical edges:
- Texans: play press/physical coverage, let rush-four win, keep mistakes to a minimum on offense.
- Patriots: test Houston’s coverages with outside/over-the-top shots and crossers from condensed formations; use play-action/rollouts to create windows.
- Key hinge: whether Houston’s defense can slow or fluster the Patriots enough — and how the Texans offense replaces lost explosiveness (Nico Collins noted as out in the episode).
- Expected script: low-to-medium score; a defensive takeover by Houston is possible, but the Pats’ offensive efficiency makes it a toss-up.
Rams at Bears (Rams -3.5; O/U ~50–51.5)
- Big-picture: feel-good Bears season meets veteran Rams. The Bears’ offense (Caleb Williams, big-play tendencies, strong run game) can exploit the Rams’ secondary; weather and Matthew Stafford’s mobility/health matter.
- Bears strengths: explosive passing concepts (dig/crosser/inbreaker heavy), strong run success this season, playmakers in space (Colson Loveland highlighted).
- Rams strengths: experienced offense with Stafford, ability to pivot to a ball-control run game (Kevin Dotson return would help); top-tier screen defense and interior run defense.
- Tactical edges:
- Bears: attack Rams’ corners downfield, use play-action/inbreakers, create early pressure/turnover opportunities, exploit under-center play-action weaknesses on Rams.
- Rams: control the line of scrimmage, manufacture negative run plays/limit explosive pass plays, and leverage special teams (Rams have had special-teams gaffes this season).
- Key hinge: weather (very cold) and whether the Bears can create enough explosive plays while avoiding turnovers; the Bears need a turnover margin or special-teams / fluky plays to swing it.
- Expected script: highest-scoring potential of the weekend if weather cooperates; also vulnerable to low-possession, grind-it-out style if ball-control/running dominates.
Notable injuries & availability (as discussed)
- Bills: significant receiver losses mentioned (season-ending ACLs to Gabe Davis and another player); Jordan Poyer likely out; Ed Oliver possibly returning; Curtis Samuel questionable-but-celebrated if active.
- Broncos: added linebacker/safety help (Alex Singleton, Drake Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga referenced) improving run defense vs last year's matchup.
- 49ers: George Kittle out for year; Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall status key (Williams expected to be important if active); Fred Warner confirmed to be out.
- Seahawks: Sam Darnold listed questionable with an oblique at one point in the conversation (monitor).
- Texans: Nico Collins noted as out in the discussion (impact on Houston’s offense).
- Patriots: key defensive pieces (Milton Williams, Kyrus Tonga, Robert Spillane) trending healthier — important vs Houston’s run/pass balance.
- Rams/Bears: Matthew Stafford’s mobility and left tackle availability (Kevin Dotson) were highlighted as meaningful. Weather and cold can worsen injury effects and impact passing.
(Note: the hosts referenced many roster details and practice statuses — listeners should check final gameday reports for late changes.)
Tactical themes to watch this weekend
- Man vs. zone: several games pivot on whether underdogs can force opponents into uncomfortable man coverage (Broncos man vs Bills; Patriots/Patriots’ use of cover zero vs Texans vulnerabilities).
- Short passing / YAC vs. chunk plays: Broncos offense relies on short throws and YAC; Bills and Bears need chunk plays to overcome top defenses.
- Pass rush and pocket compression: Seahawks vs. Purdy and Rams/Bears vs. Stafford — pressure (simulated or real) matters more than pure blitz frequency.
- Play-action effectiveness: teams that get play-action and condens ed-set crossers working (Bears, Patriots) can create the biggest mismatches.
- Turnovers & special teams: small sample, but turnovers and special-teams miscues have outsized impact in these tight matchups — Bears emphasized this as a must-win factor.
- Weather and possession control: games in cold conditions may favor ground control and short-field management (Rams–Bears impact).
Betting lines & score ranges mentioned
- Bills at Broncos: Broncos -1; O/U around 45.5; projected range ~24–21 type game.
- 49ers at Seahawks: Seahawks -7; expected low-scoring defensive battle (Niners’ wins likely in teens).
- Texans at Patriots: Patriots -3.5; toss-up, defense-vs-offense battle; no clean projection.
- Rams at Bears: Rams -3.5; O/U ~50–51.5; highest-scoring potential if weather cooperates; cold weather could depress offense.
Notable quotes / lines of color
- “This is the best football weekend of the year.” (Repeated as a refrain.)
- On the Texans defense: “They have 11 guys and all 11 of them have a hammer — and jetpacks.” (Emphasis on their physicality and speed.)
- On Josh Allen: “Josh Allen is the best player in this game” (Bills–Broncos) — he can skew outcomes.
- On the Broncos–Bills matchup: “If you tell me how the Broncos run the ball, I’ll tell you who wins this game.” (Run game = decisive factor.)
What to watch live (actionable checklist)
- Final injury/practice reports for Poyer, Ed Oliver, Trent Williams, Pearsall, Fred Warner, Nico Collins, Kevin Dotson, Sam Darnold.
- Bills: early utilization of tight ends (Kincaid/Knox) and success on outside runs/doubles vs Zach Allen.
- Broncos: ability to maintain long drives and limit Josh Allen’s explosive plays.
- 49ers: whether Purdy can get more than 3–5 air yards per attempt (need vertical plays) and how often McCaffrey/Juszczyk create mismatches.
- Patriots/Texans: Patriots’ use of condensed sets and crossers; Texans’ cover-zero vulnerabilities and ability to avoid giving up explosive pass plays.
- Rams–Bears: turnover margin and special teams; Bears’ success getting chunk play over top vs Rams secondary; temperature and handling of ball/footing.
Final verdict (tone)
All four games are compelling and matchup-driven. Expect grindy, tactical football where a single unit or a single play (turnover, explosive pass, special-teams mistake) can swing the outcome. The hosts repeatedly stress the unpredictability — that’s what makes Divisional Weekend so compelling: top-end defenses, key personnel battles, and elite playmakers still on the field.
Enjoy the games — and watch the injury reports and early drive scripts (run/pass splits) for the clearest early clues on how each matchup will finish.