Overview of Divisional Round losers postmortem: The Athletic Football Show
Robert Mays and Derek Klassen review four teams knocked out in the divisional round (Bills, 49ers, Texans, Bears), assessing what went wrong, what’s next this offseason, roster & cap pressures, and the most logical ways each franchise can improve before 2026. The conversation also reacts to major coaching news (Sean McDermott fired in Buffalo; Jeff Hafley hired in Miami) and debates how much blame belongs to coaches vs. front offices and injuries.
Buffalo Bills — postmortem & next steps
- Short summary: Sean McDermott was fired the morning after the Bills’ loss. The roster has clear offensive talent (Josh Allen) but persistent defensive deficiencies (DL/front seven/pass rush) and mid-round draft misses. Cap constraints limit big fixes.
- Biggest problems
- Defensive front: too many light bodies, inadequate pass rush and run-stopping; recurring misses on premium impact pieces.
- Receiver/tight end construction: several signings/drafts (Kincaid, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel) haven’t created the desired mismatch/stretch profile.
- Draft grade: many mid-round contributors but few true game-changing, All-Pro defensive picks.
- Coaching/FO context
- Firing McDermott but keeping GM Brandon Beane complicates narrative — Beane has hits in mid-rounds but has missed on several early picks.
- Debate whether Bills should hire an offensive-minded head coach to pair with Josh Allen — panel skeptical it’s necessary with an elite QB.
- Cap & roster levers
- Roughly $11.5M over the cap; limited obvious ways to free massive space.
- Candidates to cut/trade: Curtis Samuel, Dawson Knox (big cap hit), restructure Allen, restructure veterans like Dion Dawkins.
- Plausible moves / priorities
- Target a vertical field-stretcher WR in free agency or trade (Alec Pierce, Romeo Dobbs, or even Mike Evans as a short-term band-aid).
- Add defensive front/edge/line help via draft and selective free agency; evaluate whether a defensive schematic change under a new coach yields better returns from current players.
- Maintain offense core around Allen; be cautious about mortgaging future draft capital given defensive holes.
- Bottom line: The roster is close but not starry enough on defense; fire of McDermott signals impatience, but practical fixes are constrained by cap and available coaching candidates.
San Francisco 49ers — postmortem & next steps
- Short summary: Blowout loss masked the fact this roster will largely get healthier — Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and rookie Mikel Williams expected back — and the offense remains elite under Kyle Shanahan. Biggest needs are depth along the defensive line and some offensive line succession planning.
- Biggest problems
- Injury explosion: loss of Warner and Bosa (and other front‑seven injuries) left a very young defense exposed.
- Interior offensive line / long-term left-tackle succession (Trent Williams aging).
- Cap & roster outlook
- Expect roughly $30M-ish in cap space; some flexibility to add a veteran or two.
- Have extra comp/fourth-round-ish picks that fit depth building.
- Plausible moves / priorities
- Add defensive line depth (day‑two/three or veteran free agent) rather than major overhauls — use comp picks for bench/backup D‑line.
- Address OL succession: consider drafting a guard/tackle who can play guard now and move to LT later (a “redshirt” tackle).
- Add one perimeter receiver (bigger body/chain-mover) — Romeo Dobbs-type mentioned.
- Bottom line: With stars returning and Shanahan in charge, the 49ers should rebound; offseason work is mainly about depth insurance on the front four and proactive LT succession planning.
Houston Texans — postmortem & next steps
- Short summary: The Texans have draft capital and defensive talent, but the offensive line collapsed late and C.J. Stroud developed alarming pocket/decision issues. Immediate offseason priority is rebuilding the OL; how the team handles Stroud’s option/extension matters.
- Biggest problems
- Offensive line: ended the year with stopgap/low-quality starters; need two new starters (center → RT) and more depth.
- RB/early-down back needed (expect to move on from Dameon or Mixon-type cap hits).
- Some uncertainty around Stroud’s recent decline — likely linked to protection, but habits have formed.
- Cap & draft assets
- ~$11M over the cap; six picks in the first four rounds (4 in top 100) — strong draft currency.
- Plausible moves / priorities
- Use cap/draft resources to upgrade OL (center through right tackle) — target immediate starters rather than long-term projects.
- Pick up Stroud’s rookie option (widely believed necessary); decide timing of extension conversations.
- Add a tackle/innings-eating RB and shallow TE upgrade; preserve draft capital for OL/edge depth on defense.
- Longer-term quarterback outlook
- Panel believes Stroud’s issues are likely fixable if OL/protection improves; still optimistic he can be a high-tier starter but extension/organizational decisions will be significant.
- Bottom line: Draft capital gives Houston a path to solve the OL problems; fixing protection is the clearest and most important lever to restore offense and Stroud’s play.
Chicago Bears — postmortem & next steps
- Short summary: Despite a playoff exit, the Bears have an encouraging foundation: coach/OC (Ben Johnson), franchise QB Caleb Williams, and a young offense. Major cap/cost decisions loom (DJ Moore, Tremaine Edmonds), and defense needs pass-rush investment.
- Biggest problems
- Cap commitments on defensive front: Grady Jarrett and Odangbo eat large cap space; front office must allocate wisely.
- Pass rush: need a true impact edge rusher; likely a draft-focused approach rather than big-ticket free agency due to cap.
- Safety/secondary questions (Byard, Brisker UFAs) — safety is more pressing than corner.
- Cap & roster levers
- ~$4M over the cap; trading DJ Moore would save about $16M but options are limited (salary is still large for an acquiring team).
- Cutting Tremaine Edmonds would save about $15M but would create a drop in quality unless you have replacements.
- Plausible moves / priorities
- Consider trading DJ Moore if market exists; replace with lower-cost veteran and give more snaps to Rome Odunze/Luther Burden-type development.
- Use high draft picks to chase an edge rusher or interior disruptor; take measured swings without over-leveraging cap.
- Add OL depth and insurance for injured LT (Trapillo) — short-term stopgap options if needed.
- Bottom line: Offense looks like a durable foundation with Williams & Ben Johnson; defense needs targeted upgrades (especially pass rush and safety depth) and careful cap management.
Coaching & league-wide notes
- Sean McDermott fired by Buffalo — raises questions about the staff/GM alignment and coaching direction; debate over whether Bills should seek an offensive-minded head coach despite Josh Allen being elite.
- Jeff Hafley hired as Miami head coach — seen as a steady choice for a rebuild-minded job; reflects Miami shifting from “go-for-it” to a more patient roster build.
- General theme: injuries and schematic mismatches often complicate the blame game (coach vs. GM). Teams with elite QBs have more latitude on staff type; teams with younger offenses may prefer patient, draft-driven rebuilds.
Actionable priorities (one-line checklist per team)
- Bills: shore up defensive line/edge in FA/draft; add a true vertical WR if cap allows; evaluate coach choice vs. defensive identity.
- 49ers: add D‑line depth (free agency/draft), draft a G/T for LT succession, add one perimeter WR.
- Texans: prioritize center → RT upgrades and depth (draft or FAs), add an early-down RB, pick up Stroud option and time extension talks.
- Bears: decide DJ Moore/Tremaine Edmonds futures to create cap space; draft for edge rush and safety depth; protect LT position and OL depth.
Notable quote(s)
- “When you have an elite quarterback like Josh Allen, it frees you up — you don’t necessarily need an offensive-minded head coach.” — discussion framing Bills’ coaching choices.
- “Fix the offensive line and a lot of CJ Stroud’s problems get solved.” — thesis on Houston’s immediate lever.
This summary condenses the episode’s roster-by-roster diagnoses, cap realities, coaching implications, and pragmatic offseason moves that make the most sense for each franchise.