Overview of The Athletic Football Show — Conference Championship Sunday Preview
This episode previews the two Conference Championship games: Pats at Broncos (AFC) and Rams at Seahawks (NFC). Hosts (Robert Mays with Dave Hellman and Derek Klena) break down how each team arrived here, quarterback questions (Bo Nix out, Jared Stidham starting for Denver; Drake Maye for New England; Matthew Stafford for the Rams; Sam Darnold for Seattle), schematic matchups, plus the coaching/organizational narratives behind each club’s turnaround. The show mixes Xs-and-Os, matchup stats, historical context, and “what to watch” items for both games.
Key takeaways (overall)
- Both weekends present high-stakes narrative moments: quick franchise turnarounds (Broncos, Patriots) and potential final-chance urgency for the Rams/Stafford.
- Injuries and personnel (Bo Nix out; Jared Stidham starting) materially shift betting lines and game plans in Denver.
- The Rams–Seahawks series is historically elite: three close, high-quality games already this season; this game could be one of the best playoff trilogies in modern times.
- Coaching matchups loom large: Sean Payton’s offense vs. Jerod Mayo’s Patriots; Sean McVay vs. Mike McDonald (Seattle’s defensive architect).
AFC Championship — Patriots at Broncos
Context & narrative
- Patriots opened as small dogs; moved to favorites (~Patriots -4.5) after Broncos’ QB injury news.
- Big-picture story: Broncos went from post-Manning drift to a fast rebuild after correct hires and drafting; Patriots’ turnaround (from 4–13 to 14–3) has been exceptionally fast as well—Drake Maye’s presence and team construction matter here.
Broncos offense with Jared Stidham (what changes; what to expect)
- Stidham strengths: accurate across levels, good spirals, quick to checkdowns, leads receivers into YAC opportunities.
- Limitations vs. Bo Nix: less sudden in-pocket athleticism and slower release; higher sack rate historically than Nix; less effective when pressured or asked to extend plays with legs.
- Game-plan implications: Denver will retain much of its structure (rollouts, motion, designed shots), but Stidham’s limitations may push them to more checkdowns and short-to-intermediate structure. Success will hinge on whether Denver can still present a handful of high-value downfield/over-the-middle opportunities tailored by play design.
Patriots defense & pressure scheme
- New England has been creative and disruptive with “mugged up” looks, DB blitzes and disguised pressures—they’ll test Stidham with varied pressures and interior push.
- Patriots have been strong at limiting big downfield completions; Denver’s ability to move the pocket and create those shots matters.
- Tackling in space will be critical — Broncos create many short throws/screens that turn into gains if defenders miss in space.
Patriots offense vs. Broncos defense
- Drake Maye’s biggest asset is timing and ability to fit throws into tight windows—he’s shown excellent accuracy on tight-window throws.
- Volatility: Maye’s sack and turnover tendency rises against man coverage and heavy pressure. Broncos will want to generate pressure and force Maye into those plays.
- New England’s offense could lean on pre-snap motion, play-action and displacement to create openings (vs. Denver’s aggressive fronts). If the Broncos bring creative pressure/stunts, they can create splash plays.
Watch-for items (AFC)
- Can Stidham hit two-to-four critical downfield/over-middle throws to keep Patriots honest?
- How often will NE deploy DB blitzes/mugged looks and can Denver’s line/pocket handling hold up?
- Will Denver’s pass rush generate splash plays vs. Maye? If Denver gets turnovers or a few big stops, the path to an upset widens.
NFC Championship — Rams at Seahawks
Context & quality of matchup
- Seahawks favored ~2.5 at home. By several analytical measures (DVOA), this series ranks among the very best matchups of the last several decades—three high-quality games already this season.
- Narratives: Rams feel urgency to win while Matthew Stafford is at peak form; Seahawks have built one of the league’s best defenses under Mike McDonald and recovered offensively.
Rams offense (what they do now)
- Heavy reliance on 13-personnel (TEs + RBs). This year the Rams leaned into 13 personnel more than ever; it produced many touchdowns during the season but has cooled in the postseason.
- Their offense toggles between methodical run/play-action out of 13 and explosive vertical/intermediate shots: when 13 is working, it sets up play-action and seams; when it stalls the game can become one-dimensional.
- Stafford uniquely effective attacking the middle of the field against Seattle — his timing, eye manipulation, and arm strength create opportunities where most QBs struggle vs. Seattle’s safeties.
Seahawks defense (Mike McDonald)
- McDonald’s unit is detailed, multiple frontline pieces and depth; they create pressure with movement, stunts, and disguise rather than relying purely on blitz frequency.
- Key strategic choice: how much to risk vacating intermediate middle-of-field space (which Stafford can exploit) vs. sending pressures/second-level rushers that could open up those middle windows.
Seahawks offense vs. Rams defense
- Sam Darnold’s production has been inconsistent—he has a history of turnovers in the Rams matchups, and Sean McVay’s schemes have given him problems (blitzes, disguised coverage).
- Seattle has recently relied on creative motion and base-heavy looks to create matchups; their ability to control the line of scrimmage and protect Darnold will determine whether he repeats earlier mistakes.
- The Seahawks’ pass protection and ability to handle twists/stunts will be vital to prevent quick pressures that force Darnold into mistakes.
Rams defense & run-plan matchup
- Rams linebackers/edge rushers excel at executing stunts and creating A-gap pressure; that complicates Seattle’s run game and short passing game.
- Rams are vulnerable on play-action/short-play-action looks (their play-action EPA has been a weak spot recently), so Seattle may try to generate a few big shots off those concepts.
Watch-for items (NFC)
- Will Sam Darnold avoid the turnovers and hold up against McDonald’s disguises? Can the Seahawks pass protect better than they did earlier in the series?
- Can the Rams consistently get the 13-personnel play-action game going and force Seattle to play base defense (creating seams)?
- Stafford’s middle-of-field opportunities: if he can exploit a hair of leverage with his eyes (and complete a few chunk throws), Rams’ path to victory opens up.
- Will Seattle commit to the same blitz-heavy approach that worked in cold conditions last game? That worked under different weather and field conditions; it may not translate.
Notable quotes & moments (paraphrased)
- “This is as good as it gets” — the hosts repeatedly called the Rams–Seahawks matchup one of the all-time great playoff trilogies.
- On Denver: “There’s no better example of how quickly a franchise can turn itself around when it makes the right hire.”
- On New England: “To go from 4–13 to 14–3 in two years is an absolutely remarkable turnaround—Drake Maye and some luck played big roles.”
Quick reference — what to watch in-game
- AFC: Patriots’ creative pressure packages & DB-blitz looks; Stidham’s ability to hit designed deep/over-the-middle throws; tackling in space on Denver checkdowns; whether Broncos create turnovers with pass rush.
- NFC: Stafford attacking the middle-of-field (eye manipulation + seam shots); Rams’ 13-personnel/play-action success rate; Seahawks’ ability to protect Sam Darnold and avoid self-inflicted turnovers; whether Seattle’s disguises and pressure plan can keep Stafford from ripping middle shots.
Bottom line
- Both games are chess matches: AFC centers on whether Denver’s schematic advantages and play design can compensate for Stidham vs. New England’s disruptive pressure and Drake Maye’s accuracy; NFC centers on whether Stafford can again puncture Seattle’s coverage over the middle and whether Seattle can force Sam Darnold into mistakes.
- Expect heavy emphasis on pressure, disguise, pre-snap motion, and play-action sequencing — those elements will decide the winners on Championship Sunday.