An Idiot's GUIDE to the 2026 NFL Draft

Summary of An Idiot's GUIDE to the 2026 NFL Draft

by The Athletic

1h 7m•March 20, 2026
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Overview of An Idiot's GUIDE to the 2026 NFL Draft

Host Robert Mays opens The Athletic Football Show’s month-long draft coverage with Dane Brugler and Dave Hellman from Building the Beast. This episode is an “idiot’s guide” — a high-level primer on the 2026 class: who the likely top players are, positional strengths/weaknesses, how teams should think about value, and what to watch in the pre-draft process. The trio emphasizes practical takeaways for fans who aren’t draft obsessives and lays out the themes the show will revisit in deeper episodes across the month.

Key takeaways

  • Main framing: “Take the best player” / prioritize impact value over abstract positional value — but be realistic about projection risk.
  • This class is unusual: light at both quarterback and running back early, but deep at edge rusher and tight end (especially on day three).
  • Many high-ranked prospects have clear holes; this is a draft where teams should be comfortable with “doubles” (reliable starters) rather than expecting many guaranteed franchise-changing picks.
  • Pre-draft testing, pro days, interviews and scheme fit will swing a lot of evaluations (examples: pro day arm length for tackles, medicals for WRs).
  • Expect lots of pass-rusher buying opportunities in late first / early second; expect many useful tight ends on day three.

Draft-wide themes and context

  • Impact value vs positional value: Teams should ask, “Who adds the most impact to my roster?” rather than defaulting to positional scarcity rules. Context (roster phase, contract math, scheme fit) matters.
  • Narrative volatility: Draft narratives shift fast across the fall, winter and pre-draft process. Don’t over-index on early-season rankings — current intel, workouts and interviews change things.
  • “Doubles, not home runs”: With many prospects carrying questions, teams may prefer low-risk regular starters rather than swinging only for elite upside.
  • Free agency and roster moves matter: Recent veteran RB signings/trades suggest teams who can’t rely on the draft for RB help may plug veterans first.

Positional snapshots

  • Quarterbacks
    • Light on top-end prospects. Fernando Mendoza is widely viewed as the top QB off the board, but the QB class overall lacks multiple surefire starters.
    • Several developmental/backup-level QBs with upside could be day two/three picks. Ty Simpson is an intriguing mid-round upside dart; pro days and interviews will be important.
    • Expect teams to still take quarterback chances (low pick/high upside) because the reward is huge if it works.
  • Running backs
    • Surprisingly thin early. Only a few RBs project inside the top 100; teams have used FA and trades to shore up rooms already.
    • Jeremiah Love is a true workhorse/top prospect and likely to go early if a team wants a difference-maker.
    • Running back value is volatile and draft-day availability will depend on team circumstances.
  • Edge rushers
    • Deep class from late first into Day 3. Many different flavors: bigger, power-oriented edge dudes; some more athletic/twitchy types; plenty of second-round options.
    • This draft is a buyer’s market for teams that want to build rotational depth (think Seahawks model).
    • Expect a lot of edge rushers taken across rounds 1–3 and into day three.
  • Wide receivers
    • Deep, but without a clear transcendent WR-1 (not as many “Tyreek/Tyreek/Tyreek”-type top-10 locks). Roughly 13–20 receivers could be top-100 worthy; many are “good” players rather than generational prospects.
    • Teams will be choosing flavors (size, contested-catch, YAC, slot) based on offensive fit.
  • Tight ends
    • Extremely deep year: the hosts have many draftable grades (Dane mentions ~25 draftable TEs), with 4–5 graded inside the top 100.
    • Many are NFL-usable as blockers or move TEs; a lot of Day 3 value and role players who can expand roster versatility.
  • Safeties
    • Solid top-end plus depth into Day 3. Caleb Downs is the big name around whom debate centers (top-10 candidate due to impact and chessboard-type processing despite average measurable traits).
    • Several other players (detailed below) could be day-one or day-two starters depending on team preferences and perceived fit.
  • Offensive line / tackles
    • Several first-round-level OL, but a “flawed” or developmental group. Many top tackles may project inside at guard or be significant developmental projects.
    • After a top tier of several prospects, there’s a steep falloff. Combine/pro day metrics (arm length, movement) will matter a lot for tackle evaluations.

Notable prospects mentioned (short notes)

  • Fernando Mendoza (QB) — widely projected as QB1/top pick; scouts see starter upside but not guaranteed franchise QB.
  • Arvel Reese (edge) — elite pass-rush traits; top-10 upside if he falls that far.
  • Sonny Styles (LB) — strong profile; mentioned among top talents from Ohio State.
  • Caleb Downs (S, Alabama) — cerebral play-recognition safeties who unlocked Ohio State’s defense (a game-wrecking impact type despite average measurables); biggest safety debate for top-10.
  • Jeremiah Love (RB) — true difference-making running back candidate; early pick candidate.
  • Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama) — high-upside project with only ~15 starts; polarizing (possible second-rounder/low pick upside).
  • Spencer Fano (T, Utah) — movement skills, pro-day / pro-day arm-length updates matter (reported arm length ~32 7/8"); wild-card tackle.
  • Maui Noah (T, Miami) — referenced as a top tackle candidate (toolsy).
  • Keldrick Falk (edge, Auburn) — big-bodied, young, wins with power; wide variance on draft range (late first to mid-30s).
  • Gabe Ackes (edge, Illinois) — motor, violent hands, high character — fits well as a rotational piece early.
  • Carnell Tate (WR, Ohio State) — WR1 in class with improved route-running and vertical ability.
  • Makai Lemon (WR) — versatile slot/inside-out receiver who produces yards-after-catch; not a burner but very productive.
  • Jordan Tyson (WR) — talented but durability/injury concerns.
  • Denzel Boston (WR, Washington) — pro-day impressed; some public narratives underestimated him.
  • Jeremy Bernard (WR) — “just a good football player”; smooth, productive, mid-round target.
  • Fernando Mendoza and Riley Nowakowski (TE connection called out on tape) — Nowakowski highlighted as an effective blocker / safety net for QBs.
  • Dylan Tienann (S) and McNeil Warren (S, Toledo) — safeties who could come off the board early.
  • Cade Curry, Cade N. etc. (edge/role players) — many Day 3 contributors expected.

(Names reflect how they were discussed in the episode; the general assessments are the important takeaways.)

Team/strategy implications

  • Teams with multiple early picks and weak pass rushes (e.g., Seattle example) should target edge depth — this is a favorable year for that strategy.
  • Teams that need immediate impact pieces but don’t want to gamble on QB upside should consider high-floor offensive/defensive pieces (e.g., reliable safeties, edge rotational pieces).
  • If your roster is close to contending, drafting proven impact players (even at non-premium positions) can be warranted; teams rebuilding can afford more upside gambles.
  • Free agency moves will influence draft decisions (some teams already snapped up RBs or veterans that take pressure off drafting certain positions early).

Risks, comps & historical context

  • The hosts repeatedly warn about overconfidence in projections: many prospects have holes, and the pre-draft process (workouts, interviews, medicals) can change opinions.
  • Historical examples used to justify caution: players once thought “safe” that disappointed (Aaron Curry, Devin Bush) and success stories where positional value was ignored (Quentin Nelson). The point: both approaches have hits and misses.
  • Draft cycles are cyclical: QB/RB-rich or poor years happen; teams should adapt rather than rely on blanket rules.

What to watch between now and the draft

  • Pro days and combine/pro-day follow-ups: arm length for tackles (Spencer Fano update), three-cone/short-area testing for WRs and RBs, medical reports.
  • Interviews and background checks (character, football IQ) — especially for shorter-start QBs (Ty Simpson) and prospects with projections hinging on processing.
  • Free agency and trade activity that shifts team priorities (e.g., teams signing veteran RBs or OL could change Day 1 targets).
  • How teams stack edge/tight end/safety needs — this group is deep in multiple defensive positions and on Day 3 for tight ends.

Notable quotes / framing lines

  • “Replace positional value with impact value.” — focus on how much a player moves your roster forward, not just their label.
  • “Be OK with hitting a double instead of insisting on a home run.” — this draft favors dependable starters over guaranteed superstars.
  • “It's a buyer’s market for edge rushers.” — lots of good options late first/early second and beyond.

Quick practical tips for the casual fan

  • Don’t panic if your team doesn’t take a QB in round one — the QB depth is shallow this year.
  • If your team needs pass rush, expect value in rounds 2–3 and beyond.
  • Expect a lot of tight ends on Day 3 to be useful rotational or multi-role players; those picks can be quietly valuable.
  • Pay attention to pro day numbers and team medical reports — they move draft boards more here than in many other years.

The episode serves as a primer and road map for deeper coverage to come; the hosts will dig into position-by-position and player-by-player evaluations throughout the month leading up to the draft.