2026 free agency doppelgängers

Summary of 2026 free agency doppelgängers

by The Athletic

1h 7m•March 5, 2026
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Overview of The Athletic Football Show — "2026 free agency doppelgängers"

This episode breaks down early 2026 free‑agency landscape by matching players expected to hit the market with historical free‑agent archetypes — the good outcomes, the bad outcomes, and the “how it could go” scenarios. Hosts Robert Mays, Dave, and Derek use recent deals and past signings to forecast values, landing‑spot fits, and anti‑patterns (especially at receiver). The show also opened with two big roster updates: Trent McDuffie traded to the Rams and Stefon Diggs released by the Patriots.

Breaking news & roster moves covered

  • Trent McDuffie → Los Angeles Rams

    • Reported return to Kansas City: 29th overall pick (2026), a 5th and 6th in 2026, and a 2027 third‑rounder.
    • Discussion points: huge price but makes sense for Rams (win‑now cap flexibility, shove all‑in) and for Chiefs (turns a pricey corner into multiple picks and room to reload). McDuffie is viewed as an elite nickel who can play outside; much hinges on where the Rams ultimately deploy him and how they juggle Quentin Lake / Cam Curl.

  • Stefon Diggs released by New England Patriots

    • Patriots save roughly $16.8M in cap space by cutting Diggs before guarantees vest.
    • Hosts’ read: Patriots extracted what they wanted (jump‑start Drake Maye’s development, short‑term boost). Release opens space to chase younger/wider range of receiver fits.

Main segment — 2026 free-agent doppelgängers (player → historical comp + why)

Note: these are archetypes — intended to show plausible outcomes and market parallels rather than perfect one‑to‑one evaluations.

Cornerbacks / Defensive Backs

  • Trent McDuffie (trade context)

    • Theme: slot vs outside deployment matters; trade is sensible for both teams given Chiefs’ DB development pipeline and Rams’ win‑now posture.

  • Cam Curl → Cam Bynum

    • Similarity: proven safety/nickel who could get a decent payday leaving a strong defensive ecosystem; unclear whether top‑market money arrives but likely a solid deal.

  • Jamel Dean → James Bradbury (Derek) / Carlton Davis (Dave)

    • Bradbury parallel: one‑year high‑impact signing that raises expectations; risk of decline with extended deals.
    • Carlton Davis parallel: Dave argues Dean’s career arc, age and contract timing line up eerily with Davis’s path — a repeatable pattern to watch.

  • Tariq Woolen → Trey Waynes (downside scenario)

    • Woolen’s worst‑case: a first‑round pick who never quite becomes a long‑term starter and fades after a big rookie pedigree — the hosts treat this as the cautionary tail.

Safeties

  • Jalen Thompson
    • Upside pick to outplay his contract if defenses/market underprice him → could be a value signing.

Edge Rushers

  • Boye Mafe → Dorrance Armstrong archetype

    • Mafe viewed as a useful rotational/second‑starter who could command a mid‑range edge deal (roughly $12–15M/yr range suggested).

  • Trey Hendrickson → DeMarcus Ware (optimistic swan song)

    • Best case: a veteran signing to a contender who produces a high‑impact final act; downside always present with 30+ edge free agents.

Wide Receivers

  • Alec Pierce → Kenny Golladay / Sammy Watkins archetype (historical caution)

    • Hosts argue the history of multi‑year, top‑AAV free‑agent WR signings is mixed/poor. If Pierce pushes into the $30M+/yr tier, he’ll be near top‑paid receivers and could mirror past expensive FAs who underperformed relative to contract.

  • Romeo Doubs → Jacoby Meyers (if in ideal fit) or Corey Davis (downside)

    • Two outcomes: in the right system Doubs could be a highly efficient second‑type starter; in the wrong scheme he could become an overpriced possession/volume player.

  • Wan’Dale Robinson → Russell Gage (volume/benefit‑from‑target‑share)

    • Comp is about volume: he can rack up numbers if surrounded by little else, which can inflate perceived value.

  • Rashid Shaheed → John Brown (2019)

    • Vertical/role specialist who can provide what teams want at that price tier.

  • Juwan Jennings → Allen Robinson (risk scenario)

    • Hosts warn about players who thrived in specific, limited roles (San Francisco wrinkles) and may not carry that same productivity everywhere, especially as they approach 30.

Offensive line / Centers / Guards

  • Connor McGovern → Drew Dalman (role/value parallel)

    • McGovern could be the center some team overpays for to stabilize an OL; he’s the top center on the market if Linderbaum stays in Baltimore.

  • Dylan Parham → 2023 Connor McGovern (second‑contract bounce in better situation)

    • A player who could get more than expected after landing in a superior OL ecosystem.

  • Cade Mays → Ryan Jensen (optimistic comp)

    • Mays could be a late bloomer/solid starter who parlayed limited early starts into a multi‑year, reliable center/guard role (Bucs/Jensen parallel). Hosts see this as an optimistic outcome if a team bets right.

  • Isaac Seumalo → Kevin Zeitler

    • Seumalo framed as a dependable veteran guard with “plug‑and‑play” value similar to Zeitler’s role in the market.

Tight Ends

  • Cade Otten → Robert Spillane (role glue / cross‑positional comp) / Colby Parkinson (this year‑only)
    • Otten projected as a do‑everything, glue‑type TE — good blocker, safety valve, useful in the run game. He’s not an elite receiving mismatch but he’s the kind of sign‑ing that stabilizes an offense. Comparable market comps: Jake Ferguson / Cole Comett salary band (~$12–13M/yr) would be fair.

Linebackers

  • Devin Lloyd → Patrick Queen / Tremaine Edmunds parallels (market/role)

    • Hosts see Lloyd as a guy who improved and could command sizeable money; comparisons focus on contract level and the risk of overpaying for one or two years of production.

  • Quay Walker → Foyesade Oluokun

    • Walker seen as a run‑and‑hit linebacker who could earn a mid‑range starting LB deal similar to Oluokun’s market.

  • Devin Bush → “diet” Demario Davis / Denzel Perryman type

    • Bush as a productive, short‑term, one‑or‑two‑year defensive hire — a high‑effort veteran who can be a strong plug in the right defense.

Notable insights / recurring themes

  • Free‑agent receiver market is historically risky: hosts repeatedly note many high AAV WR free agents (Watkins, Golladay, Galladay, Ridley, etc.) have inconsistent ROI. The lesson: receiver inflation is real, and top AAV receivers rarely provide guaranteed long‑term upside.
  • Fit and usage matter more than headline money. Several comps hinge on whether a player is used in his best role (McDuffie inside vs outside, Dean in slot vs outside, Doubs in a system that leverages him).
  • Teams with cap room and short championship windows (Rams example) will overspend in the short term; other teams (Chiefs) can instead convert talent into draft capital and flexibility.
  • Age and injury history are key risk multipliers — a 29–32‑year‑old signing can be a one‑year boom or a multi‑year bust.

What to watch / actionables (for fans and evaluators)

  • Free agency day one live coverage: The Athletic will run a five‑hour Day‑1 live stream (Monday, 11 a.m. CT) with multiple guests — expect analysis as deals drop and markets set.
  • Cardinals/Chiefs/Rams cap moves and draft pick planning — the McDuffie trade changes both team build strategies.
  • Receiver market inflation signals: if Alec Pierce or a similar profile signs in the $25–35M AAV range, expect cascading price boosts for mid‑tier second‑contract WRs (Romeo Doubs, Wan’Dale Robinson, etc.).
  • Safety/top‑of‑the‑market check: watch early signings for whether safeties crack $13–15M/yr again or if the depth of the class depresses pricing.

Quick, notable quotes from the episode

  • “The history of free agency is littered with a lot of guys getting a ton of money and it not working out.”
  • On the Chiefs: “If I thought it was a steep price to pay, I felt better about it when I heard that other teams were trying to get in on this.”
  • On Patriots/Diggs: “You got exactly what you wanted and needed out of him — and you’re getting out.”

Episode logistics / promos

  • Tomorrow: The Athletic Football Show will run free‑agency superlatives and favorite fits.
  • Live stream: Monday (Day 1 of free agency), 11 a.m. CT — five hours, multiple guests (list included in the episode if you want details).

This summary captures the episode’s market‑level framing (inflation risks, fit importance), the big roster headlines, and the host‑recommended archetypal comps for many of the names expected to move in 2026 free agency.