Overview of Half-baked takes for the 2026 season
This offseason edition of The Athletic Football Show is built around “half-baked” NFL opinions: ideas the hosts are leaning toward, but aren’t ready to lock in as hard predictions. The conversation ranges from team-specific optimism and pessimism to broader league debates, with the biggest themes being roster fragility, how much preseason injuries matter, and which contenders feel most likely to separate from the pack.
Biggest Team Takes
Baltimore Ravens: elite team, but Maxx Crosby would make them terrifying
Derek’s strongest conviction was that the Ravens would look like the best team in football if they had Maxx Crosby instead of Trey Hendrickson. His point wasn’t just “Crosby is better,” but that Crosby’s impact against the run and overall front-seven value would solve the one major concern he has about Baltimore: edge-setting and run defense. The offense already feels dangerous enough for him to buy in; Crosby would push the defense from very good to truly dominant.
Why it matters:
- Baltimore’s ceiling is already high
- Crosby’s run defense is viewed as a game-changing difference-maker
- The Ravens’ biggest issue may be a small one, but it could matter in January
Philadelphia Eagles: the world is sleeping on DeVonta Smith
Dave’s most confident player take was that DeVonta Smith is being undervalued and is poised for a bigger leap now that A.J. Brown is no longer in Philadelphia. He argued that Smith has already been a highly productive, efficient receiver, but his role and target share have kept him from being viewed as a true top-tier WR1.
Main idea:
- Smith has long produced at an elite efficiency level
- A role change could unlock a more public “superstar” season
- He could plausibly become an All-Pro caliber receiver with the new setup
San Francisco 49ers: Robert is out on the window
Robert’s most pessimistic take was that the 49ers’ championship window may already be closing. The injuries and fragility at skill positions pushed him from cautious optimism to real concern. His bigger point was that this roster already carried a lot of projection, and with multiple health questions piling up, it’s harder to believe the offense can be elite enough to carry the team.
Core concerns:
- Injury fragility across the roster
- Aged core pieces like Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle
- Too much of the offense’s success now feels conditional
Washington Commanders: Derek doesn’t trust the long-term outlook
Derek’s concern with Jayden Daniels and Washington was less about Daniels himself and more about the organization and roster around him. He sees too many red flags:
- An aging and thin supporting cast
- Offensive line uncertainty
- Misses in roster-building
- A general lack of organizational trust
His take was essentially: Daniels may be special, but this could still be a rough environment for the next few years.
Houston Texans: possible Seattle-style Super Bowl path
Robert liked the idea that the Texans could follow a path similar to recent Seattle teams: win with a defense-led structure and an offense that is better than people think, even if it isn’t elite. He pointed to improvements up front, more personnel flexibility, and the idea that C.J. Stroud and the offense were better after the early-season adjustment period than the public perception suggests.
Why he’s buying in:
- Defensive upside is clear
- Offensive line and skill-position depth look improved
- Stroud’s post-opening-month numbers were much better than the overall narrative
- The roster now has more ways to win than it did last year
Los Angeles Rams: too much pressure, too much “Super Bowl or bust”
Robert’s galaxy-brain concern was that the Rams might be too good on paper and carrying too much expectation. He’s uneasy about how close this team is to the “if they don’t win the Super Bowl, it’s a failure” zone. The worry isn’t that the roster is bad — it’s that the bar is now so high that anything short of a title feels like a disappointment, and that kind of pressure can create its own problems.
Underlying concern:
- The roster is loaded
- The expectations are extreme
- There are dynamic and emotional reasons a superteam setup can fail
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott is a real MVP candidate
Dave said he’s very much buying Dak Prescott as an MVP value bet. The case is straightforward:
- The offense has elite receiver talent
- The offensive line could be a bit better if healthy
- Prescott has already shown MVP-level play in the past
- If Dallas wins enough games, he has a real path to the award
This was one of the few takes he framed as close to fully baked.
New Orleans Saints: offense could surprise
Dave floated the idea that the Saints offense might be much better than expected, enough that a top-10 finish might not even be crazy. The optimism centers on:
- A potentially strong offensive line
- The possibility that young receiver talent pops
- Better health and continuity up front
The hosts agreed there’s enough upside for the offense to become a legitimate surprise.
League-Wide Themes
This may be the hardest playoff field to sort in years
One of the biggest meta-takes of the episode was that the playoff race feels unusually crowded. The hosts listed a long group of plausible contenders and argued that there may be 18–19 teams with a reasonable case to make the postseason, which makes trimming the field especially difficult.
Teams mentioned as plausible playoff candidates included:
- Bills
- Ravens
- Bengals
- Texans
- Jaguars
- Broncos
- Chiefs
- Chargers
- Seahawks
- 49ers
- Rams
- Lions
- Packers
- Bears
- Eagles
- Cowboys
- A team from the NFC South
- Plus the Vikings and Patriots in the broader conversation
The takeaway: there may be fewer obvious “bad teams” and more middle-class teams than usual.
Kickers are too easy now
Dave made a non-team-specific argument that NFL kicking has become too efficient, especially from long range. He wants the league to narrow the goalposts to make field goals harder and force more real decision-making.
His logic:
- 50+ yard kicks are too common now
- The current setup encourages overly cautious football
- Narrower goalposts would restore some uncertainty and strategy
He specifically rejected the idea of limiting long kicks to late-game situations, preferring a structural rule change instead.
Turf vs. grass remains a problem
Dave also argued that it looks ridiculous for the NFL to go back to artificial turf after venues were prepared with natural grass for major soccer events. His stance:
- Players overwhelmingly prefer grass
- The league can afford it
- Stadiums can make it work if they choose to prioritize player safety and performance
Final Takeaway
The episode’s central idea is that the 2026 NFL season feels unusually volatile: there are lots of good teams, lots of plausible breakout players, and enough injury/organizational uncertainty that even strong rosters feel fragile. The hosts’ best “half-baked” takes all orbit around the same theme: the gap between contender and disappointment is thinner than it looks right now.