Overview of The Athletic Football Show’s Drafting the 15 Best Offenses in the NFL
In this episode, Robert Mays, Dave Helman, and Derek Klassen draft their top 15 NFL offenses using combined EPA per play as the guiding metric. The conversation is less about pure ceiling and more about balancing floor, quarterback quality, coaching, offensive line stability, and upside. As the draft unfolds, the hosts repeatedly debate the same tension: do you take the safest elite offense, or swing for a unit that could finish first if everything breaks right?
How the Draft Worked
- Format: 15 offenses total, 5 picks each
- Order: Snake draft with a reversal after round 3
- Evaluation metric: Combined EPA per play
- Philosophy: Teams were judged by:
- quarterback reliability
- offensive line quality/depth
- play-calling
- skill-position ceiling
- overall consistency and floor
Key Takeaways
1) Buffalo was the safest No. 1
The group agreed that the Bills were the best “steady Eddie” choice at the top. They may not have the flashiest roster, but their offense has been consistently excellent for years, and Josh Allen gives them one of the highest floors in the NFL.
2) Dallas and Los Angeles were viewed as true ceiling plays
The Cowboys and Rams were both treated as offenses with legitimate No. 1 overall upside.
- Dallas offers elite receiver talent, a strong quarterback, and room for growth in Year 2 of the system.
- The Rams were the most explosive offense from last year and still have one of the best play-callers and quarterbacks in football, though health and line depth were concerns.
3) The Bears were the biggest “belief” pick
Robert took the Bears aggressively, betting on:
- Ben Johnson’s play-calling
- Caleb Williams taking a meaningful second-year leap
- elite upside from the skill-position group
The group acknowledged the floor is lower, but the ceiling could be enormous.
4) The Ravens were framed as a “don’t overthink it” pick
Baltimore’s case was built around:
- Lamar Jackson’s brilliance
- a more functional offensive setup
- strong run-game potential
- a belief that even an average-to-good OC situation would keep them near the top of the league
5) The Chargers and Bengals were high-variance bets
Both teams were considered dangerous but enticing:
- Chargers: massive mystery-box upside under a new offensive direction
- Bengals: elite when healthy, but availability and schematic transition make them riskier
6) Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Minnesota were the “how high can they climb?” teams
These offenses were drafted as upside-heavy units with a chance to outperform public expectations if the quarterback, line, and play-calling all align.
Final Draft Board
Dave’s Picks
- Buffalo Bills
- New England Patriots
- Baltimore Ravens
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Denver Broncos
Derek’s Picks
- Dallas Cowboys
- Detroit Lions
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Green Bay Packers
- Minnesota Vikings
Robert’s Picks
- Los Angeles Rams
- Chicago Bears
- Cincinnati Bengals
- San Francisco 49ers
- Kansas City Chiefs
Notable Teams Left on the Board / Honorable Mentions
- Seattle Seahawks — quietly interesting because of line continuity and pass-game upside
- Indianapolis Colts — intriguing if quarterback health and timing hold up
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers — strong line and solid quarterback play, but receiver health questions make the ceiling feel murkier
- Philadelphia Eagles — talented enough to be in the mix, but more volatile than some of the teams selected
Bottom Line
The draft centered on a familiar NFL truth: elite offenses are usually defined by quarterback play and coaching stability, not just raw receiving talent. The safest bets were Buffalo, Dallas, and Baltimore, while the most volatile but exciting swings were Chicago, the Chargers, and Jacksonville. The hosts generally agreed that the top tier is crowded, but the difference between a top-five offense and a middle-of-the-pack one could come down to health, line play, and whether a young quarterback takes the expected step forward.