Overview of The Athletic Football Show
Robert Mays, Dave Helman, and Derek Brown kick off their annual “contender table” exercise by choosing the 10 NFL teams they believe are most worthy of true Super Bowl contender status heading into the 2026 season. The conversation is less about last year’s record and more about roster quality, quarterback confidence, coaching, and realistic paths to winning in January.
A major theme: they’re trying to be less “cowardly” than last year by making it easier to remove teams from the table if they slip, while also giving each host one chance during the season to argue a removed team back on.
The Final 10 Teams on the Table
The panel settled on these 10 contenders:
- Los Angeles Rams
- Seattle Seahawks
- Buffalo Bills
- Baltimore Ravens
- New England Patriots
- Denver Broncos
- Houston Texans
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Detroit Lions
- Dallas Cowboys
Biggest Takeaways
The “easy” contenders
The Rams, Seahawks, Bills, and Ravens were treated as near-automatic inclusions. The reasoning was straightforward:
- Rams/Seahawks: strong overall rosters and obvious contender profiles
- Bills/Ravens: elite quarterback play, strong recent track records, and top-tier roster quality
Why the Patriots made it
The Patriots were included because:
- they just reached the Super Bowl
- they have a strong coaching staff
- the quarterback played at an MVP level
- the roster has clear reasons to be better this year
The group acknowledged some of last season may have been “fraudulent,” but still felt it was too hard to find 10 teams clearly ahead of them.
The Broncos were a big point of disagreement
Denver generated one of the biggest debates. The panel felt the Broncos are being underrated by the betting market and public perception.
Main arguments:
- the roster is more complete than the odds suggest
- the defense has top-five potential
- the offense may be better than last year
- they were already good enough to belong in this conversation
The takeaway: the Broncos were viewed as a strong contender despite being priced like a much more ordinary team.
Texans: defense-first contender with real upside
Houston made the cut because the defense is good enough to carry a team deep into January, and the offense has a believable path to improvement.
Key points:
- elite defense
- offensive line upgrades
- better play-caller continuity
- concerns remain after the Jaden Higgins injury
- even without a major offensive leap, the defense may be enough to keep them in the mix
Chiefs still belong until proven otherwise
Even though the Chiefs were more controversial than in past years, the group still put them on the table because:
- Patrick Mahomes remains Patrick Mahomes
- the offense still has a high ceiling if the line and run game improve
- defensive changes could make them more explosive
- Steve Spagnuolo and the staff inspire confidence
The panel was clear: Kansas City is no longer an automatic top-tier lock, but they still deserve contender status.
Lions over Eagles and Cowboys over Bengals
The final stretch came down to three major debates:
- Lions vs. Eagles
- Cowboys vs. Bengals
- Jaguars vs. Chargers
Detroit got in because:
- the offense remains elite
- the defense was already good and could be better
- they have a very favorable schedule
Dallas got the final spot over Philadelphia because the group felt:
- the Cowboys’ path on offense is more dynamic
- their defensive turnaround has more than one avenue
- the Eagles still have too much uncertainty on offense
- the Cowboys’ upside just edged out the Bengals and Eagles in this exercise
Teams They Left Off — and Why
Green Bay Packers
Left off mainly because:
- early-season health is still a concern
- they want to see how the roster looks once injured stars return
- no need to force them on before the season starts
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles were one of the toughest cuts. The biggest concern was offense:
- enough uncertainty around how good the offense really is
- questions about whether the quarterback and skill group can take the next step
- the Cowboys were ultimately preferred
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals had a strong offensive case, but the panel wasn’t convinced enough by the defense. They felt Dallas had a more believable path to improvement on that side of the ball.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags were close, but too many things had to go right:
- offensive line improvement
- continued development from Trevor Lawrence
- more breakout potential from the passing game
They were viewed as dangerous, but not quite top-10 worthy yet.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers had strong theoretical upside, but the panel wanted to see:
- proof of elite-level play
- more certainty on the offensive line
- more than just a good, balanced roster
San Francisco 49ers
They were left off because of:
- injury concerns
- fragile roster health
- uncertainty around both the offense and defense
Main Themes of the Discussion
1. Health matters, but so does structure
Several teams were left off not because they lack talent, but because too much depends on perfect health or best-case assumptions.
2. The league is more open than it looks
The hosts repeatedly emphasized that the gap between the 7th, 8th, and 12th-best teams is small, which made the final decisions difficult.
3. Quarterback pedigree still carries a lot of weight
Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Goff, and Prescott all factored heavily into the discussion, especially when paired with strong supporting rosters.
4. The table is meant to evolve
They stressed that this is not a fixed ranking. Teams can move on and off the table during the season, and the new “soapbox” rule should make those changes more fluid.
Bottom Line
The episode’s central conclusion is that the NFL has a deep but messy contender tier entering 2026. The panel’s final table blends obvious powers with a few controversial choices, especially Denver and Dallas, because they see real upside that the market may be underestimating.
The final 10 are the teams they’d trust most to be in the Super Bowl conversation right now — but they made it clear that this list is only the starting point.