Overview of The Athletic Football Show
Dave Helman and Derek Klassen use this episode to play a preseason forecasting game: what are the 2026 versions of the biggest 2025 storylines, breakout players, and surprise teams? The conversation is part film study, part vibes check, and part “who will become this year’s household name before we all expect it.”
They cover everything from defensive scheme trends and division-wide regression to individual breakout candidates like Jihad Campbell, Omarion Hampton, Kalijah Kancey, and Lucas Van Ness, then close with long-shot Super Bowl contenders that could become much bigger stories than the market expects.
Biggest Player Breakout Predictions
Jihad Campbell as the next big defensive “unlock”
- Klassen sees Eagles linebacker Jihad Campbell as a 2026 version of Byron Murphy or Nick Emmanwori: a young defender who could take a big second-year leap and become the piece that elevates an already strong defense into a dominant one.
- The big idea is that modern defenses need versatile “spine” players who let you play small and fast without losing physicality.
- Campbell’s value comes from his range, coverage ability, and flexibility to play on or near the line of scrimmage.
Omarion Hampton as this year’s Jonathan Taylor-type star
- Klassen compares Chargers rookie Omarion Hampton to Jonathan Taylor as a runner who can turn good blocking into explosive plays and home runs.
- The idea is not that Hampton becomes a carbon copy of Taylor, but that he could have a season where the offense keeps springing him into space and he keeps finishing runs with big gains and touchdowns.
Contract-year breakout candidates
- Kalijah Kancey: if healthy, he could finally have the interior-pass-rush season that turns him into a major financial winner.
- Lucas Van Ness: with opportunity opening up in Green Bay, this feels like a now-or-never season. He doesn’t need to become a superstar, just a productive, healthy edge who can finally justify first-round expectations.
Team-Level Storylines to Watch
The NFC North might disappoint as a “super division”
- Helman raises the possibility that the NFC North could end up being a dogfight without a true elite team.
- Each team has a real flaw:
- Vikings: quarterback uncertainty and a defense that may be harder to sustain.
- Packers: injuries and an unstable offensive line.
- Lions: offensive line turnover and regression risk.
- Bears: offensive line concerns and a defense that may not look good on paper.
- The takeaway: the division may be competitive, but not necessarily as dominant as preseason hype suggests.
The Vikings defense may be headed for regression
- Klassen thinks Minnesota’s defense could follow the arc of last year’s Chiefs defense: still useful, but not able to keep surviving on disguise, pressure, and coaching wizardry forever.
- Concerns include:
- Aging/attrition in the secondary
- Limited edge depth
- Uncertainty about whether the front seven can keep masking weaknesses at the same level
- The point isn’t that the Vikings defense collapses, but that it may fall from elite-ish to merely good.
The Cardinals could be a sneaky, weirdly fun defense
- Klassen compares Arizona’s 2026 defense to the 2025 Falcons defense: boom-bust, scheme-dependent, and potentially better than people expect.
- Reasons for optimism:
- Walter Nolen could be an explosive interior piece
- Josh Sweat still brings pass-rush juice
- Zaven Collins has become a useful edge/pressure player
- The secondary has enough talent with Budda Baker, Will Johnson, Garrett Williams, Max Melton, and Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
- Even if the Cardinals don’t win a lot, they could produce a defense that looks much better in advanced metrics than the casual fan expects.
The Ravens could lean into dime as the new nickel
- One of the episode’s biggest schematic ideas: “What if dime is the new nickel?”
- Klassen thinks new coordinator Jesse Minter could bring a heavy dime approach to Baltimore, using the Ravens’ unique defensive personnel:
- Kyle Hamilton as a do-everything chess piece
- Marlon Humphrey as a movable, physical hybrid
- Malaki Starks, Chidobe Awuzie, and others to keep the back end flexible
- Roquan Smith anchoring the middle
- The larger point: teams may increasingly use bigger, hybrid defensive backs and safeties to mimic linebacker function without sacrificing coverage.
Long-Shot Contenders and Market Misprices
The Cowboys as the most interesting NFC long shot
- When the discussion turns to teams with +2000 or worse Super Bowl odds, the Cowboys emerge as a serious candidate.
- Klassen likes the ingredients:
- A strong offensive line/quarterback foundation
- George Pickens as a true X receiver
- Fullback usage and more two-back flexibility
- A second year in the system
- His logic: if Dallas’ offense becomes elite, it could fit the profile of a surprise contender.
Jaguars are the AFC long shot to watch
- Klassen also likes the Jaguars as the most plausible AFC sleeper, even with offensive line concerns.
- The market seems lower on Jacksonville than he is, especially given how much talent they still have relative to other long shots.
Other teams mentioned
- Packers: not Klassen’s favorite, but he can see a path where Micah Parsons, Tucker Kraft, and young pieces hit later in the year and make Green Bay a very different team in December.
- Bears and Colts came up as other possible long-shot candidates, but with more skepticism.
Show Updates
- The episode opens with a reminder that Robert Mays is on his training camp tour, with dispatches from multiple teams.
- The crew also plugs their Sept. 1 live show at Lincoln Hall in Chicago, where they’ll do a live wins pool draft and season preview.
Main Takeaways
- Expect the NFL conversation this season to center on hybrid defenders, dime-heavy schemes, and whether teams can still get away with playing light in the box.
- Some of last year’s biggest surprise stories may have 2026 equivalents:
- Jihad Campbell as a breakout defensive centerpiece
- Omarion Hampton as a star runner
- Kalijah Kancey / Lucas Van Ness as contract-year risers
- Cowboys/Jaguars as long-shot contenders
- The overall theme is that preseason optimism can be fragile: some “strong” divisions and teams may look a lot more ordinary by December than they do in August.