Overview of Selects: What's the Deal with Swing States?
This episode of Stuff You Should Know breaks down what swing states are, why they matter so much in U.S. presidential elections, and how the Electoral College shapes campaign strategy. Josh and Chuck explain why candidates pour time, money, and attention into a small set of battleground states, how state loyalties have shifted over time, and why the whole system leaves many voters feeling overlooked.
What a Swing State Is
A swing state is a state where the presidential race is close enough that either major party could realistically win.
Core idea
- These are not just states with a close partisan split.
- They’re states with enough persuadable voters that the outcome can flip from one election to the next.
- In the Electoral College, even a small shift in votes can change who gets all of a state’s electoral votes.
Why they matter
- Swing states can effectively decide the presidency.
- Candidates focus heavily on them because a relatively small number of voters can have an outsized impact.
How the Electoral College Shapes Everything
The episode spends a lot of time explaining how the Electoral College creates swing states and “safe states.”
Key points
- Americans do not directly elect the president by national popular vote.
- Instead, voters choose electors, who then cast Electoral College votes.
- Most states use a winner-take-all system:
- win the state by one vote, get all its electoral votes
- lose by one vote, get none
- That system encourages campaigns to ignore safe states and concentrate on battlegrounds.
Safe states vs. swing states
- Safe states: states that reliably vote for one party.
- Swing states: states where the result is uncertain enough to justify major campaign investment.
Historical Shifts in the Electoral Map
Josh and Chuck highlight how the map has changed over time, especially in 1992 and 2016.
1992: Clinton reshapes the map
- Bill Clinton broke through a long Republican-leaning “red wall.”
- He flipped several states that had been consistently Republican, including large ones like California, Illinois, and New Jersey.
- That helped create the modern idea of the Democratic “blue wall.”
2016: Trump reshapes it again
- Donald Trump flipped key traditionally Democratic states such as:
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Pennsylvania
- He did this in part by energizing non-college-educated voters and rural white working-class voters.
The takeaway
- Swing-state status is not permanent.
- A state can move from safe to battleground, or from battleground to safe, depending on demographic and political changes.
Which States Were Discussed as Swing States
The episode mentions several states that were central in 2020 politics.
Commonly discussed battlegrounds
- Florida
- North Carolina
- Arizona
- Michigan
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
- New Hampshire
- Georgia
States noted as changing
- Ohio: once a classic swing state, now seen by some analysts as more reliably conservative
- Georgia: increasingly competitive and moving purple
- Texas: drifting left and getting more national attention
- Minnesota and Maine: closer than usual in recent cycles
Why Florida stands out
- Florida is especially hard to pin down because it has multiple distinct political and cultural regions.
- Its diverse geography and demographics make it a perennial battleground.
Red States, Blue States, and Political Tribalism
The hosts also discuss how the red/blue color system became normalized.
Interesting historical note
- The red/blue assignment wasn’t always fixed.
- Early on, some networks even used the colors the other way around.
- By the 2000 election, red for Republicans and blue for Democrats became standard.
Bigger point
- Labeling states as red or blue can oversimplify complex political realities.
- It can also reinforce tribal thinking and make states seem more politically uniform than they really are.
Why People Feel Their Vote “Doesn’t Matter”
The episode strongly pushes back on the idea of a wasted vote.
The problem
- In safe states, voters in the minority party may feel like their presidential vote doesn’t count.
- But even when a state’s outcome seems predetermined, voting still matters for:
- local races
- ballot measures
- future party strategy
- changing a state’s long-term political identity
The message
- Don’t assume your vote is meaningless.
- Historical flips like Vermont in 1992 or Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania in 2016 show that small shifts can matter.
Reform and the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
The episode ends with a look at an alternative to the current system.
What it is
- The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is an agreement among states to award their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner.
- It would effectively sidestep the Electoral College without formally abolishing it.
Why supporters like it
- It addresses the problem of someone winning the presidency without winning the popular vote.
- It’s seen as a way to better align the outcome with the will of the voters.
Main Takeaways
- Swing states matter because the Electoral College makes them decisive.
- Campaigns focus on them because they can flip the presidency with relatively few votes.
- The red/blue map is a shorthand, not a full explanation of a state’s politics.
- State political identities change over time.
- Voting still matters, even in states that feel safely locked up.
- If you want to vote effectively, make sure you know your registration status and voting method ahead of Election Day.
Practical Reminder
The hosts close with a simple call to action:
- Check your voter registration
- Know where and how you’ll vote
- Don’t wait until Election Day to figure it out
- Most importantly: vote