Pivot Extra: From ‘Trump Curious’ to ‘Trump Furious’: Inside the Midterm Odds

Summary of Pivot Extra: From ‘Trump Curious’ to ‘Trump Furious’: Inside the Midterm Odds

by New York Magazine

1h 9m•October 25, 2026
Listen to Episode

Overview of Pivot Extra: From ‘Trump Curious’ to ‘Trump Furious’: Inside the Midterm Odds

This special On with Kara Swisher episode is a deep dive into the 2026 midterm landscape with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, and Democratic strategist Terrence Woodbury. The conversation centers on shifting House and Senate odds, why polling looks more favorable to Democrats than it did over the summer, how the “Trump effect” is reshaping turnout and candidate appeal, and what issues—especially affordability, corruption, and identity-related concerns—are motivating voters. The panel also looks ahead to 2028, arguing that the next presidential cycle will likely be shaped by a crowded, ideological Democratic primary and an evolving Republican field.

Key Takeaways

  • Democrats are in a stronger position than expected

    • The panel broadly agrees Democrats are favored to retake the House.
    • The Senate is more competitive than many expected earlier in the cycle, with a narrow Democratic majority now plausible.

  • The biggest polling surprise is what didn’t happen

    • Republicans have not meaningfully closed the gap as Election Day approaches.
    • The expected late-cycle Republican rebound has been weaker than in past midterms.

  • Trump is still the central force in the race

    • Trump’s low approval is dragging down down-ballot Republicans in many places.
    • But he also energizes parts of the electorate that are hard for pollsters to measure accurately.

  • The electorate is shifting

    • Young voters, especially young voters of color, are showing stronger turnout and a greater sense that voting matters.
    • Some former Trump voters are now “Trump furious,” not just “Trump curious.”

House and Senate Outlook

House

  • Dave Wasserman says Cook has moved 11 more House races toward Democrats.
  • Republicans are vulnerable in several districts Trump won comfortably, including:
    • Western North Carolina
    • Nevada’s 2nd District
    • Kentucky’s 6th District
    • New York’s 21st District
  • Wasserman’s median forecast: Democrats could gain 15–20 House seats.

Senate

  • Democrats have more viable pickup paths than expected.
  • Most likely Democratic targets discussed:
    • North Carolina as the best pickup opportunity
    • Ohio and Alaska as next-best chances
    • Texas and Maine as toss-ups
    • Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska as long shots
  • Michigan remains a key Democratic hold but also a vulnerable seat.

Why Polling Looks Different This Time

The “Trump effect”

  • Pollsters say Trump changes both:
    1. Who turns out
    2. How people answer surveys
  • Terrence Woodbury argues Trump uniquely pulls in voters—especially some younger men and men of color—who don’t respond the same way to other Republicans.

Polling is still imperfect, but useful

  • Kristen Soltis Anderson argues midterm polling is generally more reliable than presidential-cycle polling.
  • She says the Trump-less environment may be helping polling accuracy, but warns that some hard-to-reach voters may still be undercounted.

Undecideds matter

  • One cautionary note: even if turnout modeling is right, undecided voters can break late and decisively, changing margins.

What’s Driving Voters

Affordability is the top issue

  • The panel repeatedly returns to cost of living:
    • Gas and diesel prices
    • Housing
    • Health care
    • Tariffs and trade wars
    • Food and general inflation
  • In this cycle, “the economy” is less about jobs and more about costs.

Corruption and special interests

  • Voters increasingly connect affordability to corruption and insider deals.
  • Terrence Woodbury says young voters especially view corporations and special interests as the main source of their frustration.

Identity issues still mobilize voters

  • Even when issues like abortion, immigration, racism, or racial justice aren’t top-of-mind in polling, they remain highly motivating.
  • For Black voters, the Supreme Court’s redistricting/Voting Rights Act rulings have intensified turnout and political engagement.

Blacklash, Gen Z, and the Voting Rights Act

“Blacklash” after redistricting decisions

  • Terrence Woodbury describes a Black voter backlash after court rulings and redistricting efforts that weakened Black political power.
  • Black voters are becoming more active not just in voting, but in broader political behavior like sharing information, attending rallies, and organizing.

Gen Z is different

  • Gen Z has grown up in a period of political instability, constant conflict, and fragmented media.
  • They are less attached to traditional party identities and more open to candidates promising systemic change.
  • The panel suggests Gen Z voters are often anti-partisan, not simply left or right.

Prediction Markets and Political Messaging

Betting markets vs. polls

  • The panel is skeptical of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
  • They see them as interesting, but not a substitute for polling or on-the-ground political analysis.

Who voters trust

  • The strongest messengers are not politicians, celebrities, or institutions, but:
    • Friends and family
    • Peers
    • Trusted influencers who feel authentic to specific communities
  • Traditional local TV still matters for some older voters, but there is no single trusted medium anymore.

State-by-State Highlights

Texas

  • Texas may be one of the most expensive nonpresidential races ever, with over $500 million in ad spending.
  • Ken Paxton is seen as a flawed candidate, which gives Democrat James Talarico a path.
  • Some 2024 Trump voters are now open to skipping the race or backing the Democrat.
  • Talarico’s message that voters are mad at the “wrong 1%” and should focus on billionaires appears to be resonating.

Iowa

  • Affordability, diesel prices, tariffs, and corruption are central.
  • Republicans are not uniformly aligned:
    • Ashley Hinson is positioned as a stronger, more mainstream candidate
    • The GOP governor nominee is weaker and faces residency/personal scrutiny
  • Ticket-splitting appears likely.

Michigan

  • Health care costs, Medicaid concerns, and the broader affordability crisis are major themes.
  • The race also illustrates how anti-corruption sentiment and economic frustration overlap.

Looking Ahead to 2028

Democrats

  • The panel expects a crowded Democratic primary.
  • Possible standout candidates:
    • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez if she runs
    • Jon Ossoff
  • The field may reward someone who can energize a passionate base rather than unify the whole party early.

Republicans

  • J.D. Vance is the early favorite.
  • Marco Rubio is gaining some traction.
  • Ron DeSantis remains a surprising name in some focus groups, especially among less rigid Trump voters.

Bottom Line

  • Democrats appear to have the edge in the House and a real shot at the Senate.
  • Trump remains the most important force in the electorate, but his influence is increasingly polarizing and costly for Republicans.
  • The most important electoral themes right now are affordability, corruption, turnout, and trust.
  • Looking beyond 2026, the real story may be the emergence of a more volatile, anti-establishment electorate that neither party fully controls.