Overview of Lots More on the Protests and Financial Crisis in Iran
This Bloomberg “Lots More” episode (recorded Jan 15, 2026) features Matja Voitl, CEO of Amtalan Capital — a rare fund specializing in Iranian equities — discussing the widespread protests in Iran, the drivers behind them (especially the financial crisis), on‑the‑ground conditions under an information blackout, and implications for markets and investors.
Key takeaways
- The current wave of protests is both larger and different in character from past episodes: it’s driven primarily by acute economic stress (currency collapse, inflation, banking failures) rather than only social/freedom issues.
- A near‑total internet blackout, intermittent landline calls and ad‑hoc Starlink access are severely limiting reliable information; transparency is low and the situation is fluid.
- Economic pain is widespread: inability to access hard currency (due to sanctions and one‑buyer oil exports to China), soaring inflation, and a major bank collapse that required a government bailout (~$5bn), which strained the national budget.
- Currency: roughly 1.5 million Iranian rial ≈ $1 (informal estimate), a fall of ~97–98% over the last decade and ~50% in the past seven months.
- Iranian equities are retail‑driven and vulnerable to sharp sell‑offs when trading resumes; valuations were already depressed after last year’s war and remain priced for continued geopolitical risk.
Context and background
- Recent protests began in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar — historically a barometer of economic discontent because bazaar merchants rely on stable imports and foreign‑currency access.
- Contrast with earlier unrest (2022–23 Mahsa Amini protests): those were driven largely by social freedoms and younger cohorts; the current wave is rooted in household economic hardship affecting nearly every family.
- Demographics: population ~93 million; ~50 million aged 15–49. A large, relatively educated and connected youth cohort increases expectations for opportunity and mobility.
What triggered the unrest (economic factors)
- Hard‑currency shortage: sanctions and heavily China‑centric oil exports (paid partly in yuan and in Chinese bank accounts) limit usable foreign reserves and hamper imports beyond essentials.
- Inflation and collapsing purchasing power. Essential goods consume a disproportionate share of income (eg, eggs, milk, bread).
- Banking collapse: a large bank was effectively nationalized after losses tied to related‑party lending (loaning to owner’s construction companies). The bailout (~$5bn) forced budget cuts and highlighted corruption — aggravating public anger.
- Currency collapse statistics: ~1.5M rial per USD; down ~97–98% over a decade, ~50% since before last year’s war.
On‑the‑ground conditions & communications
- State blackout: internet largely shut down; domestic controlled networks also affected. Landlines intermittently work for short calls; some access via Starlink or hospital/privileged networks.
- Practical disruptions: ATMs briefly stopped working; ride‑hailing services operated but GPS and payments were unreliable.
- Administrative limits: long blackouts are unsustainable economically and administratively, so shutdowns are likely to be short, intense, and costly.
Political and social fault lines
- Rough societal split described by Voitl:
- 10–30%: very religious, staunchly aligned with the Islamic Republic’s religious governance.
- Another ~30%: religious but not necessarily doctrinaire supporters.
- The remainder: more liberal, urban (Tehran), younger, seeking social freedom and economic opportunity.
- Multiple potential trajectories: negotiated transitions (as in Poland/South Africa) are possible, but so are prolonged unrest or standoffs. Outcomes are unpredictable and could take months.
Markets and investment implications
- Iranian stock market behavior:
- Retail‑dominated market is prone to panic selling when access to funds is constrained.
- After the June war with Israel, the market was shut for ~2 weeks; when it reopened a prolonged retail selling wave pushed indices down ~36% in dollar terms over ~2.5 months before recovery. Current protests could trigger similar dynamics.
- Valuations: post‑war levels fell to very low multiples (around 2–3x earnings in some cases); market sentiment remains priced for conflict.
- Currency and central bank: with low liquidity, the central bank can temporarily stabilize the rial using reserves, but this is limited and unsustainable if economic pressure persists.
- Short term: expect volatility, liquidity shortages, and possible forced selling; reopening of trading after shutdowns is a key risk event.
- Longer term: distressed valuations may create opportunities — but only for investors who can tolerate severe political, operational and sanctions risks.
Likely scenarios / outlook
- Short, intense blackout and crackdown that is costly to sustain (administration and economy pressure will push toward reopening).
- Gradual political/economic shifts over months — potentially negotiated or partial reforms rather than immediate collapse of the regime.
- Other outcomes possible: prolonged instability, external escalation, or a managed political reconfiguration (a Venezuela‑style negotiated settlement is among possibilities).
Notable quotes
- “The protest started on the Grand Bazaar.” — highlights the economic origin and breadth of unrest.
- “This country is a de facto information black hole.” — underscores severe data and reporting limits.
- “Everything in Iran is priced for war.” — characterization of current market pricing and risk premium.
Practical takeaways for investors/readers
- Treat information as highly uncertain; verify developments from multiple sources because of blackout and censorship.
- Watch operational signals closely: whether trading is open, daily liquidity, queues of unfilled orders, bank access and ATM functionality.
- Expect sharp post‑reopening volatility and possible rapid devaluation of retail positions; risk management and liquidity planning are critical.
- For long‑term investors: depressed valuations may be attractive but require a high risk tolerance and explicit sanctions/geopolitical scenario planning.
- Monitor: changes in sanction policy, China’s trade/payment behavior, central bank reserve moves, and any signs of negotiated political change.
Limitations / caveat
- Episode recorded Jan 15, 2026 — the situation was evolving rapidly and new developments could supersede the points above. Much of the information is constrained by the government’s internet blackout and limited on‑the‑ground reporting.
Credits: conversation from Bloomberg’s “Lots More” with Matja Voitl (Amtalan Capital).