Jeff Currie on the Crazy Surge in Metals, And Why The Supercycle Has Years to Run

Summary of Jeff Currie on the Crazy Surge in Metals, And Why The Supercycle Has Years to Run

by Bloomberg

39m•January 30, 2026
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Overview of "Jeff Currie on the Crazy Surge in Metals, And Why The Supercycle Has Years to Run"

This Odd Lots episode (recorded Jan 29) features Jeff Currie (partner at Carlside, long-time commodities veteran) explaining why a broad metals rally — gold, silver, copper and many other elements — is happening simultaneously, why he believes we’re only at the beginning of a multi‑year commodity "supercycle," and what structural forces and risks underlie that view.

Key takeaways

  • The current rally is broad: precious metals (gold, silver) and base/critical metals (copper, nickel, zinc, etc.) are rising together — unlike past episodes where each metal signaled different economic conditions.
  • Drivers are structural and policy‑driven, not just short-term momentum or retail "meme" buying.
  • Currie characterizes the forces behind the rally as both the “three Ds” (debasement, dedollarization, diversity) and three policy trends: deglobalization (war on free trade), decarbonization/electrification, and redistribution (fiscal support to lower-income groups).
  • He calls this a supercycle — a long CapEx cycle in asset-heavy industries — and estimates supercycles historically last ~12 years. This one began around 2020, so it likely has many years to run.
  • The bottleneck isn’t the physical existence of metals so much as political access, environmental/permit constraints, and most importantly, capital willingness to invest in heavy industry and mines.

Why metals are rising together

  • Metals that are elements (copper, silver, gold, many critical minerals) are being hoarded/stockpiled due to geopolitical risk and fear of supply controls or asset seizure (e.g., Russia 2022 precedent).
  • Decoupling/dedollarization: emerging markets and some central banks are reducing dollar‑exposed assets and increasing metal holdings (gold and other metals viewed as non-seizable stores of value).
  • Policy shifts (onshoring, export controls, defense spending) force countries to secure domestic supply chains and build redundancy — driving demand for many metals at once.
  • Electrification and renewables increase demand for copper, silver (solar), rare earths and other critical minerals.

China & emerging markets: a major part of the story

  • China’s public and institutions are actively buying silver (Shanghai premium evidenced), partly for industrial needs (solar PV manufacturing) and partly as an affordable store of value.
  • Emerging‑market central banks have been increasing gold reserves to diversify away from dollar assets that could be frozen.
  • China’s manufacturing and policy behavior (including export control threats) have both raised hoarding and global price pressure.

Silver: why it’s spiking

  • Dual role: about 50% industrial (solar PV, electronics) and 50% store-of-value/precious-metal behavior.
  • Much more affordable for retail buyers than gold, so widespread hoarding by the public is feasible.
  • Silver is often produced as a byproduct of copper/lead/zinc mining — if copper capex lags, silver supply can remain constrained, amplifying squeezes.

The supercycle thesis — what Jeff Currie means

  • A supercycle is essentially a long global CapEx cycle in asset‑heavy industries (mining, steel, oil, power, grid equipment).
  • Historical precedent: 1968–1980 and ~2002–2014 supercycles; Currie sees similar dynamics now and expects a roughly 12‑year pattern (first few years for belief to form; multi‑year build-out thereafter).
  • Key modern difference: asset‑light tech/hyperscaler companies are themselves becoming asset‑heavy (data centers, power plants, onshoring), bringing massive capital into the physical space and accelerating demand for metals.
  • The current cycle will be more volatile and "bubbly" — sequences of price spikes rather than a smooth run.

Supply constraints and why supply response will be slow

  • Long lead times and political/environmental constraints: permitting, toxic downstream processing, NIMBY objections and the need for new processing technologies slow onshoring of critical mineral processing.
  • Capital is the real bottleneck: investors have been underweight metals/mining and remain cautious after past corrections. Moving capital from the thriving tech/asset‑light sector into asset‑heavy projects will be gradual and, when it happens, will produce catch‑up price pressure.
  • Even removing red tape won’t instantly create mines or refineries — “putting steel in the ground” takes years.

Market dynamics, volatility and investment implications

  • Markets for many metals/miners are small relative to global asset pools (e.g., combined market caps of some copper miners are tiny vs. major tech stocks) — thus capital rotation into commodities can produce very large percentage moves.
  • Expect higher volatility: pockets of oversupply and undersupply (e.g., intermittent renewable generation vs. lack of battery/grid capacity) create sharp regional price swings.
  • Serial price spikes: the supercycle will likely have repeated surges (like the 2000s and 1970s), not a single steady ascent.
  • Investment implication: the story requires patient capital and tolerance for volatility; near‑term returns will depend on timing the rotation away from asset‑light winners.

Risks and indicators to watch

  • Demand-side collapse in China (property sector weakness): a renewed large slowdown in China’s real estate/construction would suppress metal demand (this happened in 2023–24 and was a key drag).
  • Capital flow: watch whether institutional allocations shift meaningfully from tech/asset‑light sectors into mining, energy, and industrials.
  • Central bank/EM flows: continued diversification out of dollar assets and ongoing EM hoarding/central-bank buying of gold and other metals.
  • Policy shifts: easing of export controls, large new mine approvals, or big onshoring programs that accelerate supply could dampen spikes (but these take time).
  • Short-term market liquidity and volatility measures — higher volatility can deter new capital and prolong undersupply conditions.

Notable quotes & metaphors from the episode

  • “We’re in the foothills of the Himalayas” — Currie on how early we are in the cycle.
  • Metals rally described as a “bubbling cauldron of supply and demand imbalances.”
  • The three Ds driving metals: debasement, dedollarization and diversity.
  • “It’s not about the supply and demand of the molecules… it’s about the supply and demand of the capital used to create the production.”

Practical takeaways / actions for listeners

  • Treat the rally as structural and policy‑backed, not purely speculative momentum — long horizon exposure to critical metals and commodity producers may be warranted for investors who accept volatility.
  • Monitor the specific indicators above (China property & demand, EM central‑bank flows, capital rotation into asset‑heavy sectors, policy/onshoring announcements).
  • Recognize the timeline: even if supply responses are announced, actual increases in production will take years; expect recurring price spikes and volatility along the way.
  • For more tactical investors: watch small-cap miners and companies involved in critical mineral processing, but be mindful of liquidity and permit/environmental risks.

Bottom line

Jeff Currie argues the current metals rally is rooted in durable, policy-driven shifts (deglobalization, electrification, income redistribution and dedollarization) and a global shift back into asset‑heavy investment. Supply and capital constraints mean the cycle is likely to be prolonged and volatile — not a short-lived meme trade — and could last many more years with repeated price spikes.