Overview of Hollywood Was Cooked Before AI, and Now It's Only Getting Worse
This live Odd Lots interview from Hollywood features writer and producer Hayes Davenport discussing the long-running structural decline of the Hollywood business — from fewer shoot days and shrinking writer rooms to the migration of production out of Los Angeles. The conversation argues that AI is not the original cause of Hollywood’s pain, but another accelerator of a system already weakened by streaming, tax incentives, labor shifts, and changing audience behavior.
Hollywood’s Decline by the Numbers
Davenport uses LA shoot days as the clearest indicator of the industry’s health:
- 2016 peak: about 40,000 shoot days
- 2019: down to around 37,000
- Post-pandemic rebound: back near 2019 levels in 2022
- After the strikes: production fell sharply
- Most recent level discussed: under 20,000 shoot days, roughly half of 2016
His takeaway: the city was already in a steep decline before AI became a major concern.
Why Production Left Los Angeles
The conversation explains that Hollywood’s production base has been hollowed out by a combination of forces:
- Streaming changed demand and shifted where content gets made
- Cable and network TV declined, reducing traditional production volume
- Tax incentives elsewhere pulled shoots out of California
- Production moved to places like:
- North Carolina
- South Carolina
- Vancouver
- Ireland, even for some U.S.-facing studio shows
Davenport frames this as a “race to the bottom” where states and countries compete on tax breaks and labor costs rather than creative ecosystem.
How TV Writing Has Changed
A major theme is the shrinking of the traditional TV writers’ room:
- Older shows like Family Guy could have dozens of writers
- Today, many shows operate with mini-rooms or even near-solo writing setups
- Prestige TV increasingly follows a “Mike White model” — one creator writing the show largely alone
Why this matters
The writers’ room used to be a core creative engine, especially for:
- Joke-heavy comedies
- Ensemble sitcoms
- Fast-paced network-style shows
That model is becoming rarer, and Davenport suggests it’s economically cheaper for studios to use fewer writers, even if the creative process suffers.
AI’s Real Role: More Threat Than Replacement — For Now
Davenport’s view is that AI is not yet writing real TV rooms, but it is already influencing the industry:
- It is widely used like a search engine
- It can help with outlines
- It is not yet good at comedy, especially sharp joke writing
- The biggest fear is that studios will eventually use it to cut costs further
He also notes:
- Writers and actors may be among the last categories AI fully replaces
- But below-the-line jobs are far more exposed:
- hair and makeup
- grips
- set design
- production crews
The LA entertainment ecosystem depends on those jobs, so any AI-driven reduction would have wider economic consequences.
Comedy, Horror, and What’s Working Now
The interview contrasts comedy’s decline with horror’s current strength.
Why horror is thriving
- Studios can make mid-budget horror
- Horror has a clear path to profitability
- Companies like Blumhouse proved the model with low-cost, high-return films
Why comedy is struggling
- Comedy is harder for AI to imitate well
- But comedy is also losing production volume and perceived theatrical upside
- Many comedy creators have shifted into other genres or platforms
Libraries, Memes, and the Competition for Attention
The discussion also covers how the existing content library has become more important:
- New shows are competing not just against current releases, but against all of TV history
- Iconic catalog titles like The Office and Family Guy still hold major value
- But some parts of the library are becoming less valuable over time
Davenport points out that Family Guy is especially durable because it has become meme-friendly and internet-native, functioning almost like a language of its own.
Hollywood’s Economic Ripple Effects on LA
A major theme is that Hollywood is not just a creative industry — it is a local economic engine.
When production slows, the impact spreads to:
- restaurants
- lunch vendors
- tourism
- nightlife
- studio real estate
- surrounding small businesses
Examples mentioned:
- Writer rooms ordering lunch every day supports local restaurants
- Film and TV production used to fill lots, streets, and neighborhoods with spending
- The decline in production has contributed to a weaker nightlife culture in parts of LA
The Changing Image of Los Angeles
The conversation closes with a broader cultural point: the old LA monoculture is gone.
What used to define Hollywood
- Movie stars with shared national visibility
- A strong, unified celebrity culture
- Distinct “LA scenes” that were exported through film and TV
What replaced it
- More fragmented fame
- Influencers and social-media micro-celebrities
- Fewer truly universal stars
- A city where celebrity is still present, but less legible to outsiders
Davenport suggests LA still has a star ecosystem, but it no longer shapes the national imagination the way it once did.
Key Takeaways
- Hollywood’s decline began well before AI
- Shoot days in LA have fallen dramatically, showing the depth of the contraction
- Tax breaks, streaming, and shrinking writers’ rooms are major structural forces
- AI is a threat, but mainly as a cost-cutting tool and a risk to production jobs
- Comedy is under pressure, while horror is commercially healthier
- The decline of production is also reshaping LA’s broader economy and culture
- Hollywood still exists — but it is smaller, more fragmented, and less central than before
Bottom Line
The episode’s core argument is that Hollywood wasn’t “saved” by the streaming era and is now being “killed” by AI — it was already undergoing a long, painful restructuring. AI may worsen the outlook, but the industry’s real problem is deeper: too little production, too much fragmentation, and a business model that has moved away from the old LA-centered creative machine.