Where we're at with tariffs and inflation

Summary of Where we're at with tariffs and inflation

by Marketplace

25m•November 10, 2025
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Overview of Where we're at with tariffs and inflation

This episode of Marketplace (host Kyle Risdahl) surveys the current state of inflation, tariffs, and several related economic stories: why tariffs haven’t pushed inflation higher as expected, a long-running legal settlement over credit‑card “swipe” fees, the return of mailed retail catalogs, a small-business personal story, corporate earnings and markets, and the rise of AI in real-estate listings. The show mixes expert analysis, reporting, and human-interest perspective to explain what’s actually moving prices and consumer behavior right now.

Key takeaways

  • Despite higher tariffs earlier in the year, inflation expectations remain “relatively well anchored” around the Fed’s 2% target (Mary Daly, SF Fed). Several forces are keeping headline inflation down.
  • Tariffs have raised prices in some imported goods (apparel, furniture), but imported goods are a relatively small share of consumer spending.
  • Services inflation (travel, medical care, recreation) has cooled as the labor market cools, reducing wage-driven price pressure.
  • Housing/rent inflation is easing because of affordability stresses, high vacancy in some areas, and lower demand (people staying with parents or getting roommates).
  • A proposed settlement in a 20-year merchant lawsuit would trim card processing fees by about 0.1 percentage point and let merchants reject some high-fee rewards cards — but the practical impact may be limited and the judge still must approve the deal.
  • Retailers are increasingly using smaller, targeted mailed catalogs for marketing — they cut through digital ad fatigue and create tactile brand experiences (Amazon’s toy catalog uses QR codes and interactive content).
  • Corporate earnings season has been strong (over 80% of S&P reporters beating EPS estimates), led by AI and tech, but lofty valuations mean positive earnings haven’t produced equally strong market returns.
  • AI-generated or AI-edited real-estate photos and walkthroughs are growing; many consumers distrust them, and AI can hallucinate details — buyers and industry professionals are pushing back.

Topics discussed and highlights

Inflation, tariffs, and what's holding prices down

  • Tariffs increased prices in specific imported categories, but their overall inflationary impact has been muted.
  • The one-year truce with China may help limit further tariff-driven price increases if it holds.
  • Services dominate consumer spending; service inflation is sensitive to labor market conditions. As hiring and wage pressures cool, service price growth slows.
  • Rent makes up roughly one-third of the CPI; slowing rent growth is a major tailwind toward lower headline inflation over coming months.

Notable quote: Mary Daly — inflation expectations are “relatively well anchored around the Fed’s 2% target.”

Credit card swipe-fee settlement

  • Merchants sued Visa and MasterCard in 2005 alleging collusion to keep swipe fees high. A new proposed settlement trims fees slightly and allows merchants to reject some rewards cards.
  • The fee cut (~0.1 percentage point) is small but could add up in aggregate.
  • Many merchants may choose not to refuse high‑fee rewards cards because those cardholders tend to spend more; small businesses (e.g., restaurants) feel little relief.
  • The deal’s approval by a judge is uncertain.

Quote paraphrase: Merchants argue swipe fees “inflates the cost of almost everything we buy.”

Retail catalogs' comeback

  • Modern catalogs are smaller and more targeted than old department-store phone-book catalogs.
  • Catalogs provide a physical, curated brand experience that stands out amid online ad fatigue and skepticism about digital ads and AI.
  • Examples: Amazon’s toy catalog is interactive and uses QR codes (and omits toy prices to drive QR scans).

My Economy — small business pivot (human-interest)

  • Florian Roper (Studio Roper, Napa) shifted from bespoke furniture to full-time art after demand declined post‑2023, burned through savings, but eventually made a sale that validated the pivot. Story illustrates how macro shifts (pandemic spending spikes, later slowdown) affect individual businesses and careers.

Markets and corporate earnings

  • Around 90% of S&P 500 companies had reported; >80% beat EPS estimates, driven by AI/tech strength (earnings up ~26% YoY in that sector).
  • Other sectors showing gains: financials, communication services, utilities (some boosted by AI-related power demand).
  • Despite beats, the market’s response has been muted given high pre-existing valuations (S&P trading at a notable premium to historical averages).

AI in real estate listings

  • Realtors and listing services increasingly use AI to edit photos or generate walkthrough videos. Consumers generally dislike AI-generated/edited images for big purchases like homes.
  • AI can hallucinate structural details (extra staircases, altered room layouts), risking buyer mistrust and possible ethical/industry conflicts.
  • A tip to spot AI-influenced listings: certain cliché phrases (realtor anecdote: use of the word “nestled”) may indicate AI-generated listing text.
  • Professional photographers may adapt by using AI tools but argue human-quality visuals still matter.

Notable quotes & soundbites

  • Mary Daly (SF Fed): inflation expectations are “relatively well anchored around the Fed’s 2% target.”
  • Merchant perspective: swipe fees “inflates the cost of almost everything we buy.”
  • Realtor trick: if the listing copy uses “nestled,” it may indicate AI involvement.

Actionable insights and recommendations

  • For consumers: prioritize in-person or verified-viewings for high-stakes purchases (homes) — be skeptical of listings that seem too polished or contain unusual details.
  • For small merchants: monitor the swipe-fee settlement’s outcome but plan assuming only modest near-term relief; consider pricing and card-acceptance strategies carefully.
  • For shoppers: mailed catalogs may be a useful seasonal discovery tool — QR codes and curated selections can speed checkout, but check prices online.
  • For renters/homebuyers: with rent growth easing in many places, there may be slightly more negotiating leverage or alternatives (roommates, different neighborhoods).

Quick market snippets (from episode)

  • Major indexes rose on the day: Dow +0.8%, Nasdaq +2.25%, S&P +1.5%.
  • Tyson Foods: benefited from substitution from beef to chicken; beef prices up 17% in the quarter; shares gained ~2.3%.
  • TreeHouse Foods: announced acquisition by InvestIndustrial; shares jumped ~23%.
  • Travel disruptions: about 2,100 U.S. flight cancellations reported at the episode’s airtime.

Bottom line

Tariffs have raised prices in some goods, but broader factors — cooling labor markets, easing services and rent inflation, and a temporary trade truce — are keeping overall inflation on a slower trajectory toward the Fed’s 2% target. Other developments (credit‑card fee settlement, catalog marketing, AI in real estate, strong corporate earnings amid high valuations) show how different parts of the economy are adjusting — with meaningful implications for consumers, small businesses, and market expectations.