Overview of What happens when the data takes a month off?
This Marketplace episode (host Kyle Rizdahl) ties together how a recent government shutdown disrupted key economic data and the ripple effects across markets, policy decisions, businesses and everyday life. Reports and interviews cover: missing October Bureau of Labor Statistics data and why it matters; long-term investing amid uncertain policy and technological shifts; a rush in solar construction to beat tax-credit deadlines; changing metrics in streaming services; a growing scarcity of pennies and operational headaches for cash-dependent businesses; and a short housing/market update.
Main segments and takeaways
Missing BLS data and why it matters (reporter: Carla Javier)
- The government shutdown halted several Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) surveys, including October CPI and the household jobs survey.
- Missing data can’t easily be reconstructed — you can’t retroactively observe prices or labor responses.
- BLS already faced staffing cuts earlier in the year, limiting flexibility to make up lost ground.
- The BLS prioritizes seven principal indicators (employment situation, CPI/PPI, import/export prices, productivity, employment cost index). Some other reports (e.g., JOLTS) may be deprioritized.
- Consequences:
- Policymakers (notably the Fed) will have less clarity heading into decisions (e.g., December rate actions).
- Employers, state/local agencies and training programs rely on timely, granular data for wage, hiring and local policy decisions.
Notable quote: “You can't really go to a store and look at the shelf and figure out what the price would have been a month ago.” — Jesse Rothstein
Investing through uncertainty (interview: Kirstie Gibson, Bailey Gifford)
- Gibson manages long-term equity portfolios (typical holding 5–10 years).
- Investment focus: businesses with resilience and adaptability that can survive short-term political or macro shocks and participate in structural changes over years.
- Structural themes highlighted: artificial intelligence and climate/energy transition.
- On unknowns: AI is a paradigm-shift hypothesis — likely under- and overestimated in different areas; investors must accept being wrong sometimes.
- Practical investor mindset: tolerate short-term volatility and “look pretty stupid” at times to capture long-term gains.
Notable quotes:
- “We are looking for businesses that have the resilience to navigate the short-term challenges.”
- “You have to have the resilience as an individual to spend significant periods of time looking pretty stupid.”
Solar construction sprint to meet tax-credit deadline (reporter: Daniel Ackerman)
- Developers are accelerating solar projects to qualify for federal tax credits before the July 4 deadline in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” timeline cited in the segment.
- Effects:
- Construction firms and equipment (transformers, etc.) capacity is tight as many projects try to mobilize simultaneously.
- States are easing permitting in some cases to help meet the deadline.
- Even after the deadline, renewables remain competitive — many regions find renewables the cheapest new power source, so buildout is expected to continue.
Streaming metrics are changing (reporter: Savannah Peters)
- Disney reported subscriber growth but said subscriber counts are “less meaningful” for evaluating streaming.
- Streaming platforms historically shared subscriber counts to show growth; now many prioritize advertising revenue and granular viewing metrics instead.
- Advertisers and third parties (e.g., Nielsen) care more about viewership of specific shows than raw subscriber totals — streamers are shifting the metrics they emphasize.
Notable quote: Streamers “have moved the goalposts.”
Penny shortage and operational impacts (interview: Heather Haddon, WSJ)
- The U.S. Mint produced its last pennies recently; supply is dwindling in circulation even though total cents exist in jars and drawers.
- Some Federal Reserve regional repositories have stopped providing pennies for change, creating shortages for cash-dependent businesses (notably fast-food franchises).
- Businesses want Fed guidance on whether to continue circulating pennies and on permissible rounding rules at state/local levels.
- Consumers may shift to card payments to avoid rounding; retailers worry about swipe fees being absorbed.
Notable quote: “We need a solution here.” — industry groups calling on the Fed
Quick market and housing notes
- Major indices fell sharply that day (Dow down ~1.6%, Nasdaq down ~2.3%, S&P down ~1.7%).
- Corporate items: Verizon announced layoffs (15,000 jobs); Tesla reportedly negotiating to add Apple CarPlay.
- Housing: 1.6% of homeowners are underwater (highest in three years per ICE). New foreclosures rose 6% month-over-month and 20% year-over-year per ATTOM.
Implications and recommended actions
- For policymakers and data users:
- Restore and protect statistical capacity; prioritize timely publication of core indicators to avoid policy blind spots.
- Provide clear guidance on coin circulation and rounding rules for businesses during coin shortages.
- For businesses (especially cash-heavy retailers/restaurants):
- Prepare contingency operational plans for coin shortages (rounding policies, clear customer communications).
- Consider payment-system costs vs. convenience tradeoffs if pushing customers to cards.
- For investors:
- Emphasize long-term structural trends (AI, energy transition) and build portfolios tolerant of near-term noise.
- Accept uncertainty and position for directional — not absolute — outcomes from emerging technologies.
- For energy developers:
- Anticipate supply-chain bottlenecks if accelerating project timelines; coordinate early on procurement and permitting.
Notable quotes and soundbites
- “You can't really go to a store and look at the shelf and figure out what the price would have been a month ago.” — Jesse Rothstein
- “We are looking for businesses that have the resilience to navigate the short-term challenges.” — Kirstie Gibson
- “You have to have the resilience as an individual to spend significant periods of time looking pretty stupid.” — Kirstie Gibson
- “Subscriber numbers are less meaningful to evaluating the success of [streaming] business than they used to be.” — Disney (as reported)
- “We need a solution here.” — businesses/trade groups on penny shortages
Who this episode is useful for
- Policy watchers and economists tracking how data disruptions affect Fed decisions.
- Business owners (retail/restaurant) concerned about coin circulation and cash operations.
- Investors looking for practical thinking on long-term equity strategy amid policy and tech uncertainty.
- Energy sector professionals following the buildout pace ahead of tax-credit deadlines.
- Media and advertising professionals monitoring how streaming metrics and monetization are shifting.