Overview of "Did anyone learn anything from the 2025 elections?" (KCRW — Left, Right & Center)
This episode examines what the 2025 off‑year results (notably Democratic wins in Virginia and New Jersey and Zoran Mamdani’s upset in New York City) reveal about voter priorities, party strategy, and the lessons each party might take into the 2026 midterms. Hosts and two veteran strategists (Rebecca Peercy, Democrat; Mike Dubke, Republican) weigh in on message discipline, intra‑party reckonings, policy implications (policing reform, tariffs, redistricting), institutional reforms to broaden ballot choice, and what to watch next.
Key takeaways
- Democrats won major 2025 contests by emphasizing affordability and the economy — “kitchen table” issues — and by running disciplined, executive‑style campaigns (governorships in VA & NJ; NY mayor race).
- Republicans face a messaging choice: double down on Trump‑style themes (immigration, crime) or refocus on the economy and concrete policy explanations for tariffs and inflation.
- Both parties have internal fissures: Democrats between executive‑style moderates and progressive legislative voices; Republicans between governing conservatives and performative factions.
- Zoran Mamdani’s NYC win signals a generational and ideological shift inside the Democratic coalition that will be weaponized politically by opponents and debated internally.
- California’s Prop 50 — a temporary change to redistricting rules — highlights an escalating nationwide tit‑for‑tat over map control and fuels debate about partisan power grabs vs. defensive countermeasures.
- Structural fixes (open primaries, ranked‑choice voting and other state experiments) were proposed as ways to reduce the “Coke and Pepsi” two‑party squeeze on voter choice.
Topics discussed (brief)
- 2025 results: Virginia (Spanberger coattails, large Democratic majority), New Jersey governorship, NYC mayor Zoran Mamdani.
- Voter motivations: cost of living, inflation, SNAP benefits, affordability vs. crime/immigration messaging.
- Party strategy: message discipline, executive vs. legislative campaign styles, generational change.
- Trump/Republican messaging: tariffs, inflation claims, and whether rhetoric can stand without policy detail.
- Policing/mental‑health response in NYC (Mamdani’s alternative responder ideas) and how to communicate safety assurances.
- Redistricting and Prop 50 in California: power grab vs. necessary counterpunch to Republican mapmaking.
- Democratic and Republican internal reckonings heading into the midterms.
- Electoral reform ideas to broaden candidate choice (open primaries, ranked‑choice voting).
- Voter responsibility vs. systemic constraints (listener questions).
Notable insights & quotes
- “Leadership that will focus relentlessly on what matters most, lowering costs, keeping our communities safe, and strengthening our economy for every Virginian.” — paraphrase from Virginia coverage emphasizing executive competence.
- “We’ve got a Coke and Pepsi democracy” — critics’ shorthand for the two‑party control of ballot access and choices.
- Strategists’ shared admission: tactical manipulation of primaries (cross‑party interference) is a real tool — and open primaries/RCV are proposed structural solutions to reduce such distortions.
- On tariffs and inflation: low gas prices have minimized some pass‑through inflation effects, but rhetoric about price relief still lacks delivery, and Republicans will need data/policy to back claims.
Listener questions & hosts’ responses
- Q: Can voters trust Prop 50 as a “temporary” corrective measure?
Responses: Rebecca saw it as a defensive counterpunch to protect fair maps; Mike argued its wording is vague and amounts to a partisan grab. Both agreed it reflects escalating map wars. - Q: How can voters elect different people when the two‑party system blocks alternatives?
Responses: Both strategists suggested state‑level reforms: open primaries, ranked‑choice voting and other experiments to expand choice. They acknowledged tradeoffs (sabotage risks) but called reform necessary.
Actionable recommendations (what each side should do next)
- For Democrats:
- Keep message discipline on affordability and concrete, executive‑style solutions.
- Translate local wins into repeatable, measurable policy narratives (use data to prove policing/mental‑health pilots work).
- Manage internal tensions by clarifying which messages are national priorities versus local experiments.
- For Republicans:
- Decide whether to pivot (or return) to focused economic messaging with concrete policy proof points — especially around tariffs and cost‑of‑living claims.
- Address internal factions: prioritize candidates who can govern and explain policy impacts to everyday voters.
- For reformers & voters:
- Push state‑level changes (open primaries, ranked‑choice voting) to broaden ballot access and reduce party gatekeeping.
- Demand transparency and performance metrics for new policing/response pilots to build public trust.
What to watch next (through the midterms)
- How Democrats sustain message discipline and whether they can convert executive‑style wins into wider national momentum.
- Whether Republicans reorient messaging toward tangible economic explanations or double down on cultural/security themes.
- Implementation and data from Mamdani’s NYC policies (alternative responders, tax proposals) and how they are framed nationally.
- Legal, political and public fallout from Prop 50 and parallel redistricting moves in other states leading into the 2026 cycle.
- Outcome and political messaging around any prolonged government shutdown and which party voters eventually blame.
Bottom line
The 2025 off‑year results didn’t deliver a neat, universal lesson — but they underscored a clear reality: voters are responsive to focused, disciplined messages on affordability and effective governance. Both parties face internal choices about strategy and tone heading into a consequential midterm season, and institutional reforms at the state level may be necessary to expand voter choice and reduce the two‑party chokehold on nominations and ballots.