Overview of One Thing Midterms: Can Third-Party Candidates Deliver Wins for Democrats?
This episode examines a growing Democratic strategy in a handful of red-state races: instead of running traditional Democratic nominees, party leaders are backing independent candidates who they hope can attract anti-partisan, moderate, and “double hater” voters frustrated with both major parties. CNN’s Jeff Zeleny reports from the road on whether this unconventional approach can work in states like Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, and Idaho—and what it could mean for control of the Senate.
The Core Argument
The episode’s central question is whether third-party or independent candidates can realistically break through in America’s deeply entrenched two-party system.
- Democrats are struggling with a weak brand in rural America.
- In several western and Great Plains states, party leaders believe a standard Democratic candidate has little chance.
- So instead, they are effectively stepping aside and supporting independents in hopes of building a broader coalition.
The strategy is less about ideological purity and more about political math.
Why Democrats Are Backing Independents
Jeff Zeleny explains that this approach is happening because Democrats are weak in many rural areas and because voter frustration with both parties is unusually high.
Key reasons behind the strategy:
- The Democratic brand is unpopular in many rural and red-state communities.
- A large bloc of voters dislikes both parties; CNN polling described them as “double haters.”
- Independent candidates may appeal to moderates and no-party voters who are open to breaking with traditional party labels.
- The races are framed around practical concerns rather than national party ideology.
The Candidates and States in Focus
The episode highlights several military veterans and independent candidates running in red states:
- Nebraska: Dan Osborn, a former union mechanic and military veteran, is running again after narrowly losing a Senate race as an independent.
- Montana: Seth Bodnar, a former university president and decorated veteran, is backed by many Democratic leaders, though a Democratic candidate remains on the ballot.
- South Dakota, Idaho, and Nebraska: Democrats have no official candidate on the ballot in some of these races, hoping independent candidates can consolidate anti-Republican votes.
This is presented as a tacit admission by Democrats that their party label alone may not be enough to win.
What These Candidates Are Running On
The independents are not campaigning on a classic Democratic agenda. Instead, they are emphasizing concerns that cut across party lines:
Main themes:
- Affordability and cost of living
- Farming and rural economic distress
- Gas and grocery prices
- Political exhaustion and division
- Frustration with Trump-era politics and broken promises
Their message is essentially anti-establishment: both parties have failed, and voters should choose someone focused on results rather than ideology.
Can It Actually Work?
The episode treats this as an open question.
Reasons for skepticism:
- The U.S. two-party system is deeply entrenched.
- Historically, independent or third-party candidates rarely win major races.
- Republicans still outnumber Democrats in these states.
Reasons for optimism:
- There is real anger and fatigue with both parties.
- Independent and no-party voters are growing in number.
- In some states, Democrats plus unaffiliated voters can roughly match Republican registration totals.
- Younger voters appear less attached to party identity than older generations.
The episode suggests that while history is against them, the current political climate may be unusual enough to create openings.
Notable Development: Dan Osborn Controversy
After the interview, CNN notes that the Omaha World-Herald obtained audio of Dan Osborn appearing to criticize Trump voters in harsh terms.
Osborn later told CNN’s Dana Bash that:
- he didn’t remember the context,
- the comments do not reflect how he truly feels,
- and he would apologize to anyone offended.
This moment underscores the challenge of running as a populist outsider while still needing support from skeptical voters.
Main Takeaways
- Democrats are experimenting with a rare and risky strategy: supporting independents instead of party-labeled candidates in some red states.
- The approach is built on voter disgust with both parties, especially among “double haters” and no-party voters.
- The independent candidates are running on bread-and-butter economic concerns, not traditional Democratic ideology.
- History says third-party breakthroughs are unlikely, but this moment of political frustration could make the races more competitive than usual.
- The episode frames this as both a test of candidate appeal and a possible sign of longer-term erosion in party loyalty.