Overview of Top Democratic Strategists Break Down Ads from the California Governor’s Race
In this episode, Crooked Media’s Political Electrics React dissects the California governor’s race through the lens of campaign ads, with longtime Democratic strategist Adisu Demis offering critique on messaging, timing, and voter psychology. The core takeaway: the ads are mostly forgettable, the race is crowded and fluid, and in a media environment where it’s hard to become known, candidate identity and timing may matter as much as policy.
Key Ads Reviewed
Katie Porter: Reintroducing Herself After a Scandal
Porter’s ad leans into a relatable, populist biography:
- single mom of three
- drives an old minivan
- understands everyday economic stress
- will stand up to Trump and corporations
The ad also lightly nods to her earlier viral “get out of my shot” staffer incident, which had damaged her campaign and helped stall her momentum.
Assessment:
- Strong core message and one of the more memorable ads in the race
- Smart to acknowledge her controversy indirectly rather than ignore it
- Main criticism: the timing may be too late to fully capitalize on the message
Tom Steyer: Anti-Corporate Populism
Steyer’s ad attacks utility companies and rising electricity costs, promising to cut rates and break up monopolistic power.
Assessment:
- Politically, the message is strong and fits the moment
- The villain—utility monopolies, especially PG&E—is broadly unpopular in California
- The strategic problem is the messenger: Steyer has already flooded California with self-promotional ads, and voters may be tired of seeing him
- The panel suggests his ceiling may be limited less by message quality than by anti-self-funder sentiment
Javier Becerra: Late-Arriving Front-Runner Messaging
Becerra’s ad is more generic and reads like a rushed effort from a campaign that did not expect to lead:
- not the richest candidate, but “the guy that’s got you”
- emphasizes experience, trust, and protection from Washington and rising costs
- frames him as the anti-Trump, pro-constitutional order candidate
Assessment:
- The weakest of the three ads discussed
- Functional as an introduction, but not especially sharp or distinctive
- Reflects a campaign that surged suddenly after Eric Swalwell dropped out and had to pivot quickly
Strategic Themes
1. California Voters Are Hard to Reach
A major theme of the conversation is how difficult it is to become a household name in California:
- media is fragmented
- local news has declined
- TV is less effective than it once was
- millions of voters still remain hard to persuade, even with huge spending
The hosts note that California’s governor’s race is extraordinarily large, but that scale does not make it easy to break through.
2. The Race Is About Elite Perception as Much as Voters
The discussion repeatedly returns to the idea that fundraising, media coverage, and donor/strategist perceptions shape the race. Porter’s controversy and Steyer’s ad saturation matter not just because of voter reactions, but because they influence whether institutions and insiders see a candidate as viable.
3. Anti-Trump Positioning Is the Dominant Lane
Several candidates are trying to claim some version of the “fight Trump” lane:
- Porter
- Becerra
- Steyer
That overlap makes differentiation difficult, especially when the ads themselves are described as generic or cookie-cutter.
4. Becerra’s Rise Looks Structural, Not Inspirational
Becerra’s surge appears driven more by consolidation among voters looking for a safe, experienced Democrat than by excitement. He benefits from being:
- a former attorney general
- a Biden administration official
- a familiar, credible statewide figure
But the panel questions whether he has the kind of star power that wins in California without a major defining moment.
Race Outlook
The hosts close by discussing the uncertainty around the final stretch:
- Becerra appears to be the front-runner
- Steyer may be second, with Porter behind
- Matt Mahan remains a possible spoiler-ish presence but not yet a clear breakthrough candidate
- Steve Hilton is positioned as the leading Republican in the runoff scenario
Biggest unanswered question
Will any late controversy, debate moment, or media clip actually move voters?
The panel’s sense is that many Californians may already be checked out, satisfied enough with a “fine” candidate, and reluctant to change their minds again.
Notable Takeaways
- Porter’s ad is the most interesting, partly because it confronts her own vulnerability.
- Steyer’s message is strong, but his omnipresence may be hurting him.
- Becerra looks like a default front-runner, not an electrifying one.
- In California politics, being known is half the battle, and that battle is increasingly difficult to win.
- The race may be decided more by inertia than persuasion if no new major event breaks through.