NEW Final Poll Before The Midterm Shows Democrats Up BIG

Summary of NEW Final Poll Before The Midterm Shows Democrats Up BIG

by Crooked Media

16m•November 2, 2026
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Overview of NEW Final Poll Before The Midterm Shows Democrats Up BIG

The episode reacts to the final New York Times/Siena poll, which shows Democrats outperforming expectations in a set of key Senate and down-ballot races. The hosts discuss whether the numbers are too good to be true or a sign that pollsters may still be underestimating Democratic strength by over-weighting Trump voters. They also break down what the poll suggests about Trump’s standing, undecided voters, and the real shape of the electorate heading into Election Day.

Key Poll Results

Major Democratic leads highlighted in the poll

  • Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed up 11 points over Mike Rogers
  • Texas: James Talarico up 7 points over Ken Paxton
  • Maine: Democrat up 6 points
  • Ohio: Democrat up 5 points
  • Kansas: Democrat up 5 points
  • Alaska: Democrat up 2 points
  • Iowa: Democrat up 1 point

Why the results stood out

  • The poll’s margins were described as shockingly strong for Democrats
  • Several of these states were won by Trump in the last cycle, some by double digits
  • If accurate, the poll suggests a possible large blue wave rather than a narrow Democratic edge

What the Hosts Said the Poll Means

Trump may be the main drag on Republicans

  • Trump’s approval in the poll is 38%
  • He is 40 points underwater with independents
  • He is also below 50% among white voters without college degrees
  • The hosts argue that if the poll is right, Trump is becoming a major liability for Republican candidates

Polling methodology may still be missing Democratic strength

  • Nate Cohn and the Times/Siena team were praised for being transparent rather than “herding” results
  • Their methodology has become more conservative since 2024, aiming to account for hidden Trump voters
  • Even so, the poll still shows Democrats doing very well — which raises the possibility that some other polls are undercounting Democrats

The “likely voter” dynamic matters more than late deciders

  • The hosts argue that when people say they “decided late,” they often mean they decided whether to vote, not just whom to vote for
  • As the election nears, some Republican-leaning voters may simply drop out of the electorate
  • That helps explain why Democrats can look stronger even if some late-breaking voters still drift Republican

Race-Specific Takeaways

Michigan

  • The 11-point lead for Abdul El-Sayed was seen as especially striking
  • The hosts said it would surprise them if the margin were truly that large
  • But even if the race is closer than the poll suggests, the broader environment still appears favorable to Democrats

Kansas and Roger Marshall’s ad

  • Roger Marshall’s defensive ad was presented as a sign of a candidate who feels he is losing
  • The ad tries to rebut attacks about his past as an OB-GYN who sent unpaid bills to collections
  • The hosts mocked it as classic “explaining” behavior, which usually means a candidate is on the back foot

Broader Political Context

Why a big Democratic wave is plausible

The hosts compare the current environment to 2018, but argue conditions may now be even better for Democrats:

  • Trump’s approval is much weaker than it was in 2018
  • The economy is hurting more
  • Gas prices are high
  • There is broader fatigue and dissatisfaction with Trump and the GOP
  • Republican enthusiasm appears softer than in previous cycles

What to watch on Election Day

  • If the poll is right, there could be surprising Democratic gains in both Senate and House races
  • Some Republican incumbents may be more vulnerable than they realize
  • The hosts urge listeners not to assume the outcome is locked in, but to turn out and help “make the polls right”

Main Takeaways

  • The final NYT/Siena poll is being read as a sign that Democrats may be in stronger shape than expected
  • Trump appears to be a serious liability for Republicans
  • The biggest uncertainty is whether the polls are overcorrecting for hidden Trump voters
  • Even if some of the margins prove too high, the overall picture still suggests Democratic momentum
  • The hosts close with a turnout message: vote, text friends, and help drive the outcome

Notable Lines

  • “Holy shit.” — initial reaction to the poll’s margins
  • “When you’re explaining, you’re losing.” — said about Roger Marshall’s defensive ad
  • “Let’s go make them right.” — a call to action for Democratic turnout