Abdul El-Sayed Wins Primary and Takes On Mike Rogers

Summary of Abdul El-Sayed Wins Primary and Takes On Mike Rogers

by Crooked Media

47m•August 5, 2026
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Overview of Abdul El-Sayed Wins Primary and Takes On Mike Rogers

In this episode of Pod Save America, Jon Favreau and Dan Pfeiffer break down Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow but significant win in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, where he defeated Haley Stevens 48.5% to 47.5% despite massive outside spending and establishment opposition. They analyze why polling missed the mark, how AIPAC’s involvement shaped the race, and what Abdul now needs to do to beat former Republican congressman Mike Rogers in the general election.

Michigan Senate Primary: What Happened

  • Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic nomination in a race that was expected to be much closer or even tilted the other way based on some of the polling.
  • Final margin: roughly 48.5% to 47.5% with more than 95% of the vote counted.
  • He beat Haley Stevens, who was backed by much of the Democratic establishment and heavily supported by outside spending.
  • Mallory McMorrow also played a role in the post-primary unity effort, introducing Abdul at his victory event.

Why the Polling Missed

  • The hosts argue Michigan is a difficult state to poll, especially in a primary without strong in-state polling infrastructure.
  • Their best guess: pollsters over-sampled highly engaged college-educated voters, who were especially favorable to Abdul.
  • The race ultimately reflected a coalition split:
    • Abdul did well with younger voters, college-educated voters, Muslim and Arab American voters, especially in Dearborn.
    • Haley Stevens did better with more moderate voters, many Black voters, and some rural/smaller-town areas.
  • The result was close because Abdul’s coalition won enough of the high-turnout, highly engaged electorate, but not by as much as expected.

AIPAC, Outside Spending, and the Cost of Being the “Establishment” Candidate

  • A major thread in the discussion is the impact of AIPAC’s roughly $32 million spend, part of about $60 million in outside spending tied to the race.
  • The hosts conclude that being associated with AIPAC was likely a net negative for Haley Stevens:
    • It made her look like the candidate of big money and establishment politics.
    • AIPAC is unpopular with many Democrats in Michigan.
    • The spending gave Abdul an easy and effective attack line.
  • At the same time, they note Stevens likely would not have been competitive without that outside money, so it’s a complicated tradeoff.
  • Their broader takeaway: future Democratic candidates, especially in 2028, will likely think twice before courting AIPAC support or outside ads.

Abdul’s Path to Victory Against Mike Rogers

  • Abdul’s victory speech signaled his general-election strategy:
    • Cast Mike Rogers as corrupt, corporate-friendly, and aligned with Trump.
    • Tie Rogers to higher costs, corporate favoritism, and old politics.
  • The hosts argue Abdul should not rely only on labeling Rogers as extreme; instead, he should:
    • Show that Rogers is a Trump loyalist.
    • Emphasize that Rogers is out of touch with Michigan after years away.
    • Link Rogers to higher prices, tax cuts for billionaires, and corporate priorities.
  • They think the most effective frame is not just “Rogers is bad,” but “Rogers will make your life more expensive and hand power to Trump and corporations.”
  • Abdul also needs to do work on:
    • Black voter outreach
    • Jewish Democratic outreach
    • Broadening his appeal beyond his progressive base
    • Presenting himself as open, pragmatic, and willing to listen

The General Election Challenge

  • Abdul’s primary coalition was strong, but the hosts warn it does not map perfectly onto a general election electorate, which is older and more working-class.
  • They stress that his challenge is not just persuasion, but expanding his coalition beyond young, college-educated, and progressive voters.
  • They also note the importance of:
    • Graceful unity after a bruising primary
    • Avoiding a “my way or the highway” image
    • Making clear that affordability is his top priority, not just ideological fights over Israel or politics

Other Primary Results and What They Suggest

The episode also briefly covers other primaries from the night:

  • Michigan’s 7th House District: Sunrise Movement co-founder Will Lawrence won a three-way race.
  • Michigan’s 13th House District: DSA-aligned Donovan McKinney defeated incumbent Democrat Sharif Anadar.
  • Kansas gubernatorial primary: Cindy Holscher won the Democratic nomination.
  • Missouri: Wesley Bell defeated Cori Bush.
  • Kansas Senate: Adam Hamilton’s win makes the race tougher for Democrats.
  • Washington and Virginia: incumbent, more moderate Democrats held on.

Broader pattern

  • The hosts see a larger trend: anti-establishment or progressive candidates can win primaries when the field is split and the conditions are right.
  • But they also caution that:
    • Candidate quality matters a lot.
    • The Democratic establishment’s ability to “pick” winners is limited.
    • The best moderate candidates are often compelling, non-establishment-feeling figures, not just party favorites.

Bottom Line

  • Abdul El-Sayed’s win is a major upset in context, even if the margin was smaller than expected.
  • The race exposed how much outside spending, especially AIPAC money, can backfire in a Democratic primary.
  • To win in November, Abdul will need to broaden his coalition, soften some of the anti-establishment edges, and make the race about cost of living and Rogers’ Trump ties.
  • The hosts’ final message: the general election will be won by the candidate who can build the broadest coalition, not just the loudest base.