Overview of Big Technology Podcast — Software In Shambles, OpenAI vs. Anthropic Super Brawl, Amazon’s Struggles
Alex Kantrowitz and guest Ranjan Roy (Margins) discuss a turbulent week in tech: a broad sell-off in software stocks driven by growing market belief that AI — especially agentic/LLM-driven workflows — can disintermediate traditional SaaS; a public spat between Anthropic and OpenAI played out via Super Bowl ads; and investor anxiety after Amazon announced a large CapEx ramp. The conversation spans market moves, concrete examples (Monday.com, LegalZoom, Adobe, Snowflake), competitive dynamics (OpenAI vs. Anthropic vs. Google), and what this means for companies, developers and investors.
Key takeaways
- Market shift: Investors moved from “AI is a bubble” to “AI will work and may supplant much of traditional software,” triggering sharp valuation declines in SaaS stocks.
- Agentic AI threat: Autonomous knowledge workers/agents (e.g., Claude Co-works, ChatGPT agents, “CloudCode”) threaten many single-purpose SaaS products by automating tasks and generating outcomes instead of surfaces.
- Data custody matters: Companies that control structured enterprise data (Snowflake, Workday, Monday, etc.) will push to defend that dataset as a source of value — but customers may choose to surface that data through third-party agents.
- Economic uncertainty: SaaS multiples and future cash flows are being re‑priced; software forward 12-month P dropped markedly (e.g., from 33.1x to 23.2x noted).
- Marketing/brand skirmish: Anthropic’s Super Bowl ad skewering ads-in-AI generated buzz and forced a public response from OpenAI — more PR theater than technical proof-points.
- Amazon worries: Market punished Amazon after a $200B CapEx plan (60% YoY increase) despite strong AWS growth; investors are nervous about scale and returns.
- Crypto fading narrative: Bitcoin down notably YTD; lack of a clear, compelling macro/storyline is a headwind.
Topics discussed
1) Why software stocks plunged
- Catalyst: Market increasingly accepts that LLMs and agentic AI can replicate and automate many tasks currently run through SaaS UI layers — from project/task trackers (Monday.com) to legal document automation (LegalZoom, Thomson Reuters).
- Examples that accelerated sell-offs: Anthropic’s legal plugin prompted heavy declines in legal-tech stocks.
- Economic impact: Questions about pricing power, renewal rates, and growth prospects; forward multiples for software have compressed ~30% toward 2022 levels.
- Counterarguments: SaaS provides more than code — compliance, integrations, support, security, and structured, auditable databases — so ripping out incumbents will be gradual and contested.
2) Agentic AI and software’s future
- Concept: Move from “AI augments parts of a process” to “AI executes end-to-end outcomes” (agents that research, synthesize and act).
- Developer automation: “CloudCode” examples — ~4% of public GitHub commits already authored by CloudCode; forecasted to hit 20%+ by end of 2026.
- Open questions: Who captures value — model builders (OpenAI/Google), chip makers (NVIDIA), cloud/data platforms (Snowflake), or new app/consulting layers?
3) Anthropic vs OpenAI — Super Bowl ad battle
- Anthropic ran humorous Super Bowl spots positioning Claude as ad-free and poking at ChatGPT’s potential ad model.
- OpenAI (Sam Altman) publicly responded, criticizing the ad as dishonest and accusing Anthropic of wanting to control use cases — the response was seen as clumsy by the hosts.
- Effect: Anthropic likely won on short-term attention and name recognition among enterprise buyers; the clash highlights branding, positioning and regulatory posture differences.
4) Market share dynamics across AI assistants
- Reported changes (Aptopia): ChatGPT’s mobile app share fell from ~69% to ~45% (Jan‑25 → Jan‑26); Gemini and Grok gained share — caveats apply (mobile metrics, desktop/enterprise usage differs).
5) OpenAI–NVIDIA relationship
- Signs of cooler rhetoric from Jensen Huang (NVIDIA) about investing in OpenAI; mutual dependence exists but there are tensions around investment terms and business conduct.
6) Amazon’s CapEx shock
- Amazon beat on AWS growth (+24% in the quarter) but announced $200B CapEx (up 60%) — market saw this as risk/overspending and punished the stock.
- Debate: Is this prudent long-term AI/cloud positioning or an overcommitment with unclear returns? Leadership and vision for next growth leg were questioned.
7) Bitcoin status
- Bitcoin down substantially YTD; hosts note absence of a clear, dominant narrative (store of value, payments, institutional adoption) which weakens momentum.
Notable quotes & stats
- “Every company is now an API company now, whether they want to be or not.” — cited Sam Altman idea summarizing a shift toward platform/agent access models.
- Dylan Patel / SemiAnalysis: “4% of GitHub public commits are being authored by CloudCode right now; projected 20%+ by end of 2026.”
- Valuation movement: Software forward 12-month P compressed from ~33.1x to ~23.2x (≈30% contraction).
- Derek Thompson (quoted): Odds that AI is a bubble have fallen; AI could become the white-collar home screen within two years.
- Henry Blodgett (quoted): Bitcoin has no intrinsic “cheap” price — it’s only worth what someone will pay.
Action items / What to watch next
- For investors: monitor SaaS renewal rates, gross retention and guidance — these will be early signals of whether AI is already displacing revenue. Expect continued volatility.
- For enterprise buyers and IT leaders: evaluate your data governance and exportability — who can legally/technically access your enterprise data (Snowflake, Databricks) will shape which vendors stay relevant.
- For SaaS vendors: prioritize defensibility — emphasize compliance, integrations, structured data lock-in, and build or expose agents that make your product the preferred execution layer.
- For product teams/devs: experiment with agentic workflows but track total cost and compliance implications; consider agent orchestration as a new product surface.
- For general audience: watch the upcoming Big Technology episode with Snowflake CEO Sarita Ramaswamy for a deeper dive on data + AI layering.
Guests & next episodes
- Guest on this episode: Ranjan Roy (Margins) — recurring Friday analyst.
- Upcoming: Sarita Ramaswamy, CEO of Snowflake — conversation will focus on data, Snowflake’s positioning vs. chat interfaces, and enterprise choices.
Bottom line
The market is re-pricing software on the real possibility that LLMs and agentic AI can automate large chunks of knowledge work. That does not mean SaaS is dead, but it does mean companies, investors and customers face hard decisions about data access, price/value, and where economic value will concentrate in the AI stack. Short-term volatility is likely to continue while long-term winners and business models are still being defined.