Overview of Why Trump keeps asking “Vance or Rubio?”
This ABC News Daily episode examines why Donald Trump is publicly and privately floating the question of whether the next Republican presidential nominee should be J.D. Vance or Marco Rubio. Political analyst Jeff Cazessus/Cabaservis of the Niskanen Centre argues that Trump is partly stoking attention, partly testing loyalty, and partly recognizing that the Republican Party’s post-Trump future is already beginning to take shape.
The episode also explores how recent events — especially the war in Iran, foreign policy tensions, and early signs of a 2028 “invisible primary” — are reshaping the standing of both men.
Main takeaways
Trump is keeping succession speculation alive
- Trump has been repeatedly asking crowds and insiders: “Vance or Rubio?”
- At one public event, he even suggested a joint ticket, while making clear it was not an endorsement.
- The discussion is partly performative, but it also reflects real jockeying for influence inside the Republican Party.
J.D. Vance still has the advantage
- Vance remains the vice president, which gives him the traditional “heir apparent” position.
- Trump chose him in 2024 because he represented a convert to MAGA, not an ideological outsider.
- That makes Vance the most obvious continuation of Trumpism — at least for now.
Marco Rubio is rising
- Rubio has become much more visible as:
- Secretary of State
- National Security Adviser
- a frequent stand-in at high-profile White House moments
- He has gained credibility by projecting competence, confidence, and a somewhat broader appeal than Vance.
- Some in the White House see him as having matured politically and being more comfortable in his own skin than during his 2016 presidential run.
J.D. Vance: strengths and weaknesses
Why he was originally seen as the frontrunner
- Trump picked Vance in 2024 to be his running mate and likely successor.
- Vance had once been a sharp Trump critic, then reinvented himself as a loyalist.
- That conversion made him useful as a vehicle for carrying MAGA into the next cycle.
What may be hurting him
- His positioning on the Iran war appears less enthusiastic than Rubio’s.
- Trump has publicly implied Vance was not fully aligned with the Iran decision.
- He has also had some awkward moments that have drawn attention, including:
- lecturing the Pope on theology
- a less-than-successful political trip to Hungary to support Viktor Orbán
Marco Rubio: why he’s gaining ground
A more polished, broader appeal
- Rubio is now seen by some Republicans as a politician who can bridge:
- business-friendly conservatives
- traditional Reagan-style Republicans
- MAGA voters
- He has largely avoided being forced into the kind of balancing act that would come with officially running.
Why Trump likes him
- Rubio is trusted enough to be given major roles.
- His prominence in foreign policy gives him a presidential look and feel.
- His strong backing of Trump’s Iran policy has improved his standing with parts of the base.
What could hold him back
- Rubio’s support is still highly dependent on Trump’s approval.
- If he ever appeared to break with Trump, that support could evaporate quickly.
- He has also said that if Vance runs, he likely will not.
Bigger political context
The “invisible primary” is already underway
- Even though 2028 is years away, Washington insiders are already watching the early stages of the Republican contest.
- Trump’s public teasing is helping bring that process forward.
The Iran war is a major variable
- The episode suggests the war could affect:
- public opinion
- Republican unity
- gas prices
- the political fortunes of both Vance and Rubio
- If the conflict drags on or becomes unpopular, it could damage both men by tying them to the administration.
Midterms will be an early test
- Trump and Republicans have been slipping in the polls.
- Democrats are expected to do well in midterms by historical standards, but the broader political picture remains volatile.
- The results could influence how strong Trump’s successor candidates look heading into 2028.
What may happen next
Most likely scenario
- Jeff Cabaservis says Vance is still the likeliest successor, largely because of his vice-presidential role.
Other possibilities
- Trump could try to keep the presidency in the family, potentially with Donald Trump Jr.
- If the administration falters badly, an outsider MAGA figure such as Tucker Carlson could emerge as a dark horse.
Bottom line
The episode’s central argument is that Trump’s “Vance or Rubio?” question is less about a final decision and more about testing the field, stirring attention, and keeping control of the succession narrative. Right now, Vance remains the formal favorite, but Rubio’s profile is rising fast, and the outcome will depend heavily on foreign policy developments, the midterms, and Trump’s own shifting loyalties.