How One Nation’s driving a migration rethink

Summary of How One Nation’s driving a migration rethink

by ABC Australia

16m•September 13, 2026
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Overview of How One Nation’s driving a migration rethink

This ABC News Daily episode examines why migration has returned to the center of Australian politics, how the post-COVID surge in arrivals reshaped the debate, and why the government is now under pressure to reduce net overseas migration. Host Sam Hawley speaks with ABC political journalist David Speers about the complexity of the migration system, the limits of government control, and the competing demands from Labor, the Coalition, the Nationals, and One Nation.

Why migration is back as a major political issue

  • Australia has long been a country shaped by migration, but the debate has shifted from border protection to how many visas are issued and what kind of migrants are coming.
  • The issue became more politically charged after COVID, when border closures caused migration to collapse and then rebound sharply once borders reopened.
  • Rising housing costs, rental pressure, infrastructure strain, and cost-of-living concerns have made migration a highly sensitive topic for voters.

The COVID shock and the migration surge

  • Before the pandemic, Australia’s net overseas migration was typically around 230,000 to 260,000 per year.
  • During COVID, migration fell dramatically, reaching a record negative net migration figure of -89,000.
  • This hit key sectors hard:
    • Hospitality
    • Agriculture
    • Higher education, especially through the loss of international students
  • After reopening, the Morrison government introduced incentives to bring people back, including:
    • Refunds of visa fees for international students
    • Removal of work-hour caps for student visas
    • Expanded post-study work rights
  • The result was a huge rebound, with net overseas migration hitting a record 547,000 in 2023.

Why the government can’t fully control migration

Speers explains that net overseas migration is not a simple number the government can precisely dictate.

What is and isn’t controllable

  • The number includes people who are in Australia for 12 out of 16 months.
  • The government can forecast the figure, but it cannot fully control:
    • Australians returning home
    • New Zealanders arriving under long-standing arrangements
    • British backpackers under working holiday visa rules
    • Temporary skilled workers sponsored by employers
    • Family reunion migration, including spouses and children

The core problem

  • Net migration has gone from being a budget forecast to a political target.
  • Overshooting the number now creates significant political pressure, even though many parts of the system are only indirectly controlled by government policy.

What Labor is trying to do

  • The government wants to bring net overseas migration down to about 225,000 next financial year.
  • Immigration Minister Tony Burke had planned to outline reforms at the National Press Club, but the event was delayed after concerns from cabinet colleagues and may now be cancelled.
  • Reported ideas under consideration include:
    • Tightening the system around bridging visas
    • Requiring some students and other visa holders to apply offshore for new visas instead of doing so while in Australia
    • Restricting the ability of students and others to bring partners into the country

The politics across the parties

One Nation

  • One Nation wants net overseas migration cut to 130,000.
  • But the transcript highlights a split:
    • One Nation MP David Farley suggested the practical need in his electorate may be much higher because farmers and regional businesses rely on migrant labor.
    • Pauline Hanson quickly rejected that interpretation, restating the party’s hardline position.
  • Hanson also used the issue to reinforce her broader anti-multicultural message, arguing for a “monoculture” rather than a multicultural society.

The Coalition

  • The Coalition is also divided:
    • The Nationals are wary of cutting backpacker visas, which are vital in regional areas.
    • The Liberals want a broader reduction across the system.
  • Liberal MP Angus Taylor has said net overseas migration should be tied to housing approvals, with the final number depending on housing supply, but he wants it well below 200,000.

The bigger social debate: multiculturalism and social cohesion

  • The episode notes that the migration debate is not just about numbers, but also about multiculturalism and national identity.
  • Hanson’s comments about wanting a “monoculture” raise questions about:
    • What multiculturalism means in practice
    • How migrants experience public hostility or exclusion
    • Whether political rhetoric is becoming more hurtful and divisive

Main takeaways

  • Migration is once again a major election issue in Australia.
  • The government is under pressure to reduce migration, but the system is too complex to control with simple quotas.
  • Housing shortages and infrastructure strain have made migration a proxy issue for broader economic frustrations.
  • There is no bipartisan agreement, but the Prime Minister and opposition are at least talking about possible reforms.
  • Even if numbers fall, migration will likely remain politically controversial through the next election.

Notable insight

  • Speers’ central point is that migration is now judged less as a long-term national asset and more as an immediate pressure point on housing and services.
  • The challenge for government is not only to reduce numbers, but to prove that policy changes actually work in voters’ daily lives.