Are Netanyahu’s days numbered?

Summary of Are Netanyahu’s days numbered?

by ABC Australia

14m•May 28, 2026
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Overview of Are Netanyahu’s days numbered?

ABC News Daily examines whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is running out of political runway as war in Gaza continues, tensions with Hezbollah in Lebanon escalate, and a fragile US-Iran ceasefire effort unfolds. In conversation with UCLA professor Dov Waxman, the episode argues that Netanyahu is deeply reliant on conflict, coalition politics, and delay tactics to stay in power — but his election prospects, legal troubles, and public frustration all make his future uncertain.

Main Takeaways

  • Netanyahu’s political future is genuinely in doubt

    • Israel is headed for an election this year, likely in October, though it could be moved earlier.
    • Polls suggest Likud may still win the most seats, but Netanyahu may struggle to assemble a governing coalition.
    • The opposition also appears unlikely to win a majority on its own, leaving Israel in another unstable political situation.

  • He has not delivered on his core wartime promises

    • Waxman says Netanyahu promised Israelis:
      • Hamas would be decisively defeated in Gaza
      • Hezbollah would be defeated in Lebanon
      • Iran would be prevented from developing a nuclear program
      • Israeli security would be restored after October 7, 2023
    • Instead, Israelis have faced ongoing rocket and drone attacks, heavy military costs, and no clear end to the fighting.

  • Netanyahu is escalating in Lebanon while diplomacy with Iran continues

    • Even as ceasefire or peace talks with Iran progress, Israel has intensified attacks in southern Lebanon.
    • Waxman suggests Netanyahu is trying to show domestic voters that he is still acting independently and forcefully, especially if Trump moves toward de-escalation.
    • He frames the Lebanon campaign as an attempt to signal toughness against Hezbollah, though the goal of disarmament is described as unlikely.

  • Trump may end up being the key external constraint

    • The episode highlights that Netanyahu has little influence over US-Iran negotiations.
    • If Donald Trump demands that Israel stop fighting Hezbollah to secure a broader ceasefire, Netanyahu may have to comply.
    • But that would likely hurt Netanyahu politically ahead of the election.

  • Netanyahu remains tied to the far right

    • His governing power depends heavily on figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir and other far-right allies.
    • The episode references Ben-Gvir’s public taunting of detained Gaza flotilla activists, including Australians, as an example of the government’s hard-line posture.
    • Netanyahu has criticized Ben-Gvir publicly at times, but Waxman says he cannot afford to alienate him because he may need his support to form another coalition.

  • His legal jeopardy makes staying in office crucial

    • Netanyahu faces serious corruption charges.
    • As long as he remains prime minister, he is better positioned to delay or avoid conviction.
    • If he loses power, his personal legal risks increase significantly.

What the Episode Says About Netanyahu’s Strategy

Political survival first

Waxman’s core argument is that Netanyahu’s current decisions are driven less by clear strategic victory and more by survival politics:

  • prolonging conflict
  • keeping coalition partners onside
  • avoiding political collapse
  • delaying legal consequences

Conflict as a domestic political tool

The episode suggests Netanyahu benefits politically from presenting himself as the only leader strong enough to manage multiple wars and threats, even if the results are inconclusive or damaging.

Implications for the Region

If Netanyahu remains in office, the episode forecasts:

  • continued Israeli military presence in Gaza
  • ongoing confrontation with Hezbollah in Lebanon
  • no near-term resolution to the Iran nuclear issue
  • more regional instability and civilian displacement

Waxman warns that this would likely frustrate governments around the world hoping for a new direction from Jerusalem.

Notable Insights

  • Netanyahu is described as a “spectator” to some US-Iran diplomacy, with limited leverage over the outcome.
  • His political model is portrayed as one of coalition engineering, where he outmaneuvers rivals by assembling fragile alliances.
  • The episode implies that war and political survival are now closely intertwined in Israeli politics.

Production Notes

  • Guest: Dov Waxman, Professor of Israel Studies at UCLA
  • Host: Sam Hawley
  • Program: ABC News Daily