Overview of The secret US plan to end Putin’s war
This episode of ABC News Daily (host Sam Hawley) features Matthew Sussex, visiting fellow at the ANU Centre for European Studies, discussing recent escalations in Russia’s war on Ukraine and media reports of a secret US-brokered peace plan that would make major concessions to Russia. Sussex explains the military and diplomatic context, outlines what’s reportedly in the draft deal, and assesses why both Ukraine and Western capitals are likely to resist such a Russia-favouring settlement.
Key takeaways
- Russia has intensified attacks across Ukraine (including the capital and western cities), targeting civilians and critical energy infrastructure.
- NATO members have experienced incursions (drones into Polish and Romanian airspace), and a Russian intelligence ship (Yantar) operating near the UK has raised fears about undersea sabotage.
- Reports (not officially confirmed by the US) describe a 28-point peace proposal that would heavily advantage Russia and require Ukraine to cede territory, restrict its armed forces, and recognise Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church.
- Matthew Sussex argues such terms are unlikely to be accepted by Kyiv, and that the reported plan reflects a possible shift in US policy under a second Trump administration toward accommodating Russian demands.
- The broader risk: Russia may continue hybrid operations (sabotage, intelligence-gathering, strikes) to undermine European unity while waiting for Western fatigue.
Recent military and hybrid escalation
- Large-scale drone strikes hit Kyiv (reported 430 drones in one attack) and multiple Ukrainian cities; at least 25 dead in a major attack on Western Ukraine.
- Energy and civil infrastructure have been targeted—raising winter and humanitarian concerns.
- NATO airspace incursions: drones have entered Polish and Romanian airspace, prompting scrambles and downings; seen as provocative signals to NATO.
- Sabotage incidents: reported attempts to damage railway lines carrying aid into Ukraine (rail clamps, explosions) in Poland — Polish authorities suspect foreign intelligence involvement.
- Naval/intelligence threats: the Russian ship Yantar (transcript also used “Gantar”) has operated near the UK and Mediterranean. Concerns include undersea cable sabotage and an incident where a military-grade laser allegedly targeted UK aircraft monitoring the ship.
The reported US-Russia peace proposal (what’s been reported)
- Status: Widely reported in media but not confirmed by the Trump administration.
- Parties reportedly involved: Steve Witkoff (US side) and Kirill Dmitriev (Russian-linked advisor).
- Core elements (reported):
- Ukraine would cede substantial territory (notably large parts of Donetsk/Donbass currently occupied or contested).
- Significant limits on Ukraine’s military capabilities and the types of weapons it could possess.
- Restrictions on Ukraine joining military alliances.
- Recognition of Russian language as an official language in parts of Ukraine.
- Recognition of the Russian Orthodox Church.
- Demilitarised zones where Russia could exercise effective control without formally stationing forces inside them (a highly problematic clause).
- Framing: Described as a 28-point plan and likened by some reports to the structure of ceasefire/settlement deals used elsewhere, but effectively restates longstanding Russian demands.
Analysis and assessment (Matthew Sussex’s perspective)
- Kyiv is highly unlikely to accept a deal that enshrines Russian control or leaves Ukraine militarily weakened — Zelensky has shown no appetite for such concessions.
- A settlement that lets Russia control territory without direct occupation would be ripe for abuse (rearm, then resume aggression).
- From Putin’s viewpoint, incentives to keep fighting remain: he can wait for European disunity over energy, count on Western fatigue, and exploit manpower advantages to grind forward.
- The reported approach suggests a US policy shift: rather than pushing Russia to accommodate the West, the US may be moving toward accommodating Russian demands — a major strategic pivot if enacted.
- Diplomacy continues elsewhere: Zelensky is visiting European countries and Turkey (a relatively neutral meeting ground despite Turkey being a NATO member) to rally support and explore alternatives.
Notable quotes
- “We see you, we know what you’re doing.” — UK Defence Secretary (warning to Russia regarding the Yantar).
- Sussex on the proposed deal: “It's mainly about the United States shifting to a Russia-favoured position… it should spell very bad news for the Ukrainians.”
- On Russian strategy: “From Putin’s perspective why not just wait for potentially European countries just to run out of energy… and the United States to lose interest.”
Implications to watch
- Official confirmation or repudiation from the US administration about the reported plan.
- Kyiv’s public and private response (will it categorically reject the terms?).
- NATO unity — especially defence spending and responses to hybrid attacks (undersea/infrastructure sabotage).
- Frequency and geographic spread of Russian strikes (western Ukrainian cities, energy targets).
- Investigations into sabotage incidents in Poland and any connections to Russian intelligence actors.
- Activity and legal/military responses to the Yantar near NATO waters.
Recommended follow-ups (for listeners/readers)
- Track official statements from the US, Ukraine, and NATO regarding the reported plan.
- Monitor coverage of sabotage investigations in Poland and other infrastructure attacks.
- Watch for policy signals from Western capitals on defence spending and sanctions tied to any new Russian actions.
- Follow Zelensky’s diplomacy (Europe/Turkey) for alternative peace efforts and support commitments.
Produced by ABC News Daily — interview with Matthew Sussex (ANU Centre for European Studies). Audio production and staff credits acknowledged in the episode.